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SCP-4528 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4528
Expected annual
$402K
One-time setup
$109K
Annual recurring
$384K
Personnel
2
Estimated one-time setup costs are modest (~$108,700) while annual recurring costs are significant (~$384,000/yr), driven primarily by research staff salaries, contingency/reserve funds, community relations/legal payments, and the yearly supervised return mission logistics.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $109K
Initial Research And Lab Setup $50K
[#15] Research instrumentation and lab bench for controlled pyrokinetic testing (thermal imaging, thermocouples, calorimetry, HSR camera, test rigs).
Secure Vehicle Purchase $40K
[#6] Capital option for a secure van / facility vehicle (not required if using rentals/courier services).
Facilities $10K
[#1] Secure archival containment locker (museum-grade, fire-resistant, lockable metal cabinet sized for textile).
Equipment $8K
[#5, #17] One-time documentation and digitization equipment (photo setup, mannequin, lights) and initial PPE purchase (heat-resistant gloves, aprons, eyewear).
Replicas And Rehearsal Materials $1K
[#19] One-time creation of replica/sham shawls and rehearsal materials for ceremonies and public display.
Integrated Pest Management Initial $200
[#23] One-time purchase of microclimate data logger and initial pest-management setup.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $384K/yr
Staff Wages $100K/yr
[#16] Pro-rated research staff time (physicist/pyrotechnics specialist, anthropologist, research technician) allocated to SCP-4528 work and oversight of annual event/tests.
Catastrophic Contingency Reserve $100K/yr
[#25] Rapid-response catastrophic fund for worst-case scenarios (widespread fire, mass-casualty, litigation, extended remediation).
Firefighting Contingency Reserve $50K/yr
[#12] Contingency reserve for property claims or escalation if a fire incident affects local property (recommended reserve).
Insurance And Liability Reserve $50K/yr
[#13] Liability/compensation fund or insurance reserve to cover accidental property damage or personal injury and legal exposure.
Cover Story And Legal $46K/yr
[#9, #10, #14, #24] Payments/compensation to local authorities, community relations/municipal liaison budget, legal fees/amnestics and public cover-story/cultural support for festival elements.
Research And Monitoring $11K/yr
[#4, #15, #20] Textile conservator examinations (contracted hours), consumables for testing and controlled burns, and periodic repair/restoration supplies.
Facilities Maintenance $6K/yr
[#3] Climate-controlled storage overhead (pro-rated HVAC, humidity control, 24/7 monitoring and environmental controls for textile preservation).
Firefighting And Suppression $5K/yr
[#12] On-site firefighting/suppression contractor standby, portable extinguishers, and related readiness for event hazards.
Medical Standby $4K/yr
[#11] Ambulance/paramedic standby and emergency medical supplies for the annual event or as-needed incidents.
Roadblock And Traffic Control $3K/yr
[#8] Temporary roadblock, signage, lighting, and setup/tear-down crew for the annual event.
Logistics And Transport $3K/yr
[#6, #21] Annual transport costs for the supervised return/retrieval mission (secure case/vans if rented, fuel/tolls) and travel/accommodation/per diem for deployment team.
Training And Safety $2K/yr
[#18] Annual training and safety briefings for handlers, escorts, and any local participants (burn safety, draping, evacuation).
Supplies And Consumables $1K/yr
[#2, #17, #19] Archival storage consumables (acid-free bags, tissue, desiccant), PPE replacements, and occasional replica replacement materials.
Security Escorts $1K/yr
[#7] Security escort and onsite containment guard pay for the annual mission (temporary escorts/overtime).
Data Management $1K/yr
[#22] Secure servers, access logs, incident reporting, and compliance recordkeeping for photos, tests, and custody logs.
Integrated Pest Management $750/yr
[#23] Ongoing pest traps, monitoring service, and monthly microclimate checks to protect silk.
Documentation Storage Licenses $600/yr
[#5] Ongoing software/storage licenses and digital archive hosting for high-resolution images and records.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $384K/yr
92.0% probability / year
Normal year with scheduled annual supervised return and routine monitoring, no major incidents.
annual supervised return routine conservator inspections no incidents or legal claims
🚨 Minor Incident $409K/yr
5.0% probability / year +$25K vs baseline
Small-scale incident during the annual event (minor burn injuries, small property damage, ambulance/limited legal fees).
minor burn injuries requiring ambulance small property damage claims limited legal/settlement costs
🚨 Major Escalation $1.1M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$750K vs baseline
Significant escalation (widespread fire, multiple injuries, extensive property damage, major litigation and remediation).
widespread fire mass-casualty or multiple litigation claims extended remediation and replacement
🚨 Research Scaleup $534K/yr
1.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline
Active research program expansion requiring additional permanent staff and consumables (increased lab testing and experiment cadence).
decision to pursue active R&D purchase/hiring to run frequent controlled tests scale-up of instrumentation maintenance
👥 Personnel 2 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 1 [#16] Lead scientist (pyrotechnics/thermal physics) pro-rated into staff_wages.
Research Technician 1 [#16] Technician supporting tests, equipment operation, and sample prep (pro-rated into staff_wages).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates drawn from analyst ranges and standard archival/field operations; major uncertainties include choice to hold large contingency reserves, whether a secure vehicle is purchased vs rented, and local vendor/municipal rates (UK-specific police/ambulance overtime). Probabilities are qualitative judgments based on SCP containment stability and historical use.
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