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SCP-4607 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-4607
Expected annual
$4.0M
One-time setup
$9.8M
Annual recurring
$3.6M
Personnel
10
Initial one-time setup is estimated at $9,780,000 driven primarily by AUV procurement, subsea installation, and large contingency/salvage reserves. Recurring annual operations are estimated at $3,620,000/yr, driven mainly by vessel time, staff wages, and equipment maintenance.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $9.8M
Potential Salvage Operation $4.0M
[#24] Budget planning for full salvage/neutralization operation if executed (planning $3–5M; using ~$4,000,000 as a mid-range estimate).
Equipment $2.2M
[#1, #3] Two deep-sea surveillance drones/AUVs/ROVs (~$2,000,000) and hydrophones/low-frequency acoustic sensor suite (~$200,000).
Contingency Reserve Mitigation $2.0M
[#15] Contingency/mitigation reserve for sulfophilic-stage emergency intervention, salvage contractors and heavy-lift (~$2,000,000 set aside).
Facilities $650K
[#2, #4] Subsea docking/charging and acoustic telemetry node ($500,000) plus mooring system/subsurface buoy & cabling ($150,000). Includes design and installation of subsea structural infrastructure.
Initial Deployment Charter $560K
[#5] Initial vessel charter for deployment and commissioning: 14days of dynamic-positioning research vessel (~$560,000).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $300K
[#9] Onshore wet lab, cold-room and sample processing setup including -80°C freezers, microscopes and basic molecular biology equipment (~$300,000).
Permits And Environmental Assessment $50K
[#14] Initial permitting and environmental assessment costs (~$50,000).
Training Initial $20K
[#17] Initial training, safety and emergency response exercises (~$20,000 one-time).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.6M/yr
Logistics And Transport $1.2M/yr
[#6, #18] Recurring vessel time for maintenance/servicing missions (4 missions/yr × 7 days × ~$40k/day ≈ $1,120,000/yr) plus travel, crew rotations, port fees and transport (~$50,000/yr) => ~$1,170,000/yr.
Staff Wages $975K/yr
[#7] Salaries + benefits for ROV/AUV pilots (2), marine technicians (2), lead oceanographer (1), bioacoustician (1), microbiologist (1), data analyst (1) and support/admin (~2). Estimate includes offshore overtime and benefits (~$975,000/yr).
Replacement Reserve For Drones $500K/yr
[#16] Replacement/reserve fund for lost drones or catastrophic failure (~$500,000/yr set-aside).
Equipment Maintenance $300K/yr
[#8] Maintenance, spare parts and consumables for drones and subsea gear; battery refurbishments, thrusters, seals, corrosion control (~$300,000/yr).
Cover Story And Legal $200K/yr
[#19, #20] Security, classified data handling, NDAs and public relations/media management, legal counsel and small collaborator payments (~$100,000 + $100,000 = $200,000/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $150K/yr
[#10] Consumables and analytical costs (DNA/RNA sequencing, reagents, culture media, lab disposables) (~$150,000/yr).
Research And Monitoring $130K/yr
[#11, #23] Long-term data storage, compute and archival for acoustic analysis (~$80,000/yr) plus environmental monitoring and wildlife impact studies (~$50,000/yr).
Insurance And Liability $50K/yr
[#13] Insurance, vessel/equipment liability and marine risk premiums (~$50,000/yr).
Administrative Overhead $50K/yr
[#21] Archive, recordkeeping, classification and administrative overhead, program management and audits (~$50,000/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $30K/yr
[#22] Utilities and facility operating costs for onshore lab and related facility maintenance (~$30,000/yr).
Communications $30K/yr
[#12] Satellite/Iridium telemetry and data transfer costs (~$30,000/yr).
Permits And Compliance $25K/yr
[#14] Annual permitting, regulatory compliance and legal counsel (~$25,000/yr).
Training And Exercises $10K/yr
[#17] Annual refresher training and emergency response exercises (~$10,000/yr).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.6M/yr
85.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine monitoring, scheduled maintenance and no major incidents.
scheduled_maintenance routine_data_collection
🚨 Drone Loss Event $4.4M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$800K vs baseline
Loss or disabling of one or more AUV/ROV requiring emergency recovery and/or accelerated replacement.
AUV_loss entanglement catastrophic_sensor_failure
🚨 Sulfophilic Stage Intervention $8.6M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Active salvage or neutralization operation when SCP-4607-A reaches sulfophilic stage or produces hazardous emissions requiring heavy intervention.
sulfophilic_stage H2S_methane_hazard require_salvage_or_neutralization
👥 Personnel 10 total
Role Count Notes
ROV/AUV Pilot 2 [#7] Two skilled pilots for remote vehicle operation; includes offshore rotations and overtime.
Marine Technician 2 [#7] Two technicians for vehicle maintenance, subsea hardware and deck operations.
Lead Oceanographer / Acoustic Ecologist 1 [#7] Senior scientist to oversee monitoring and interpret acoustic data.
Bioacoustician 1 [#7] Specialist for low-frequency vocalization analysis and signal processing.
Microbiologist 1 [#7] Laboratory lead for microbial sampling and sulfophilic-stage analysis.
Data Analyst 1 [#7] Responsible for ML pipelines, spectrographic analysis and data management.
Support / Administrative Staff 2 [#7] Program admin, logistics and security clearance handling.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item estimates and ranges for equipment, vessels and staffing, supporting a medium confidence. Uncertainty remains around frequency of major salvage events, vessel-day requirements, and final procurement prices, which could materially shift totals.
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