SCP-4664 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-4664
Expected annual
$68.2M
One-time setup
$178.7M
Annual recurring
$65.9M
Personnel
95
Initial one-time setup and procurement (island facility, ships, submersibles, sensors, and contingency reserves) dominate capital costs (~$179M). Annual recurring costs are driven by ship operations, site logistics/staffing, and a maintained emergency reserve (~$66M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $178.7M
Equipment $85.4M
[#1, #3, #5, #12, #14, #27, #29] Capital hardware: 3OPVs, RHIBs/fast launches, helicopter + UAVs, manned submersible/ROVs, underwater sensor installation hardware, secure comms hardware, on-site medical equipment.
Facilities $50.0M
[#7] Construction/build-out of remote island facility (Leskov Island): foundations, pier/docking, shipping materials, hardened testing/berthing.
Escalation Reserve $30.0M
[#35] Contingency capital reserve for escalations / emergency procurement (maintain capital reserve for rapid procurement or replacements).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $7.0M
[#16, #18] Acoustic-hazard research chamber and laboratory / biological analysis facilities (specialized instrumentation, BSL upgrades).
Amnestic Operations $3.2M
[#20] Initial amnestic administration, relocation, new identities and temporary housing for initially affected individuals.
Stf Alpha 15 Setup $2.5M
[#10] Recruitment/training and equipment for STF-Alpha-15 (maritime interdiction, boarding, mission-specific gear).
Cover Story Setup $500K
[#22] One-time establishment of Cover Story 067 (MPA legal/PR setup, websites, fake NGO funding, initial outreach).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $65.9M/yr
Emergency Rebuild Reserve $17.5M/yr
[#24] Annual contribution to maintain a reserve for demolition, debris removal, covert remediation and reimbursements (maintain ~$10–25M reserve).
Offshore Patrol Ships Operations $13.5M/yr
[#2] OPV operations & maintenance: crew salaries, overhaul, spare parts, port visits, insurance, refits (per-ship operations aggregated).
Staff Wages $12.4M/yr
[#9, #11, #30] On-site salaries (researchers, technicians, support) and STF salaries and medical staffing (midpoint estimates).
Facilities Maintenance $8.5M/yr
[#8] Site-3T1 operations: facilities staff, utilities, generator upkeep, waste removal, environmental compliance, port fees and island logistics.
Logistics And Transport $6.0M/yr
[#25, #26] Annualized logistics and resupply (charters, heavy-lift, seasonal premiums) and fuel & energy for ships/site/generators/aviation.
Research And Monitoring $2.0M/yr
[#13, #15, #17, #32] Ongoing ROV/submersible maintenance & techs, sensor array upkeep/data analysis, acoustic-hazard countermeasure R&D, environmental monitoring/audits.
Cover Story And Legal $2.0M/yr
[#22, #23] Ongoing PR/enforcement for MPA cover and diplomatic/legal liaison payments with jurisdictional authorities and counsel.
Aerial Assets Recurring $1.5M/yr
[#6] Pilot/aircrew salaries, UAV operators, training, spares, fuel, inspections for helicopter/UAV assets.
Supplies And Consumables $575K/yr
[#4, #19] Small-boat consumables/fuel/engine servicing and laboratory reagents, PPE, sample processing consumables.
Evidence Suppression Per Incident $500K/yr
[#31] Per-incident budget for covert forensic cleanup / witness cover; annual allocation for likely small incidents.
Training Exercises $450K/yr
[#33] Regular large-scale maritime intercept and multi-unit operational readiness exercises.
Communications And Cyber $350K/yr
[#28] Recurring secure satellite bandwidth, data storage, real-time feeds and cyber defense/monitoring costs.
Personnel Rotation Travel $350K/yr
[#34] Rotation travel, evacuation contingencies, travel allowances for remote-site staff and family support during rotations.
Amnestic Aftercare $250K/yr
[#21] Ongoing amnestic monitoring, psychological follow-up, witness relocation stipends and long-term identity maintenance.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $65.9M/yr
75.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine operations, no major incident.
routine_operations no_manifestation_needing_major_response
🚨 Minor Incident $70.9M/yr
20.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Localized manifestation requiring cleanup, limited facility damage and targeted evidence suppression.
local_manifestation facility_damage_repair targeted_evidence_suppression
🚨 Major Incident $90.9M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$25.0M vs baseline
Significant destructive manifestation (site or asset loss) requiring wide rebuild, asset replacement, and large-scale cover operations.
major_structure_loss OPV_or_site_destruction large_scale_remediation
👥 Personnel 95 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 12 [#9] Research staff (oceanographers, psychologists) at Site-3T1 included within site staff salaries.
Technician / ROV Pilot 15 [#9, #13] Lab and submersible/ROV technicians included in site staffing estimates and recurring submersible ops.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 20 [#9] Site security personnel included in on-site staffing estimate.
Support Staff (cooks, admin) 13 [#9] On-site support and administrative staff included in site staffing.
Security Officer / MTF Agent (STF-Alpha-15) 30 [#11] STF-Alpha-15 unit personnel accounted separately in STF salary line-item.
Medical Officer 5 [#30] Medical staff included in medical staffing recurring costs.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are midpoint-based with many wide ranges and an uncertain incident frequency/severity profile; capital and recurring items are well-identified but per-incident costs and remote-operation premiums introduce material uncertainty.
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