SCP-4687 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-4687
Expected annual
$101.1M
One-time setup
$401.1M
Annual recurring
$98.2M
Personnel
50
Initial regional containment requires large capital outlays (vessels, deep sensors, ROVs and deterrent sites) on the order of hundreds of millions, with recurring annual operations dominated by vessel/field operations, security and large-scale suppression or R&D programs.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $401.1M
Suppression Program Start $150.0M
[#25] Initial mobilization/startup costs for a large-scale population suppression program (noted as likely >$100M).
Vessel Purchase $100.0M
[#3] Purchase of 1–2 oceanographic research/salvage vessels (assumed 2 at ~$50M each for clandestine ownership).
Equipment $81.3M
[#1, #4, #5, #8, #16, #17] Hydrophone 50-node deployment (~$15,000,000), ROV/AUV fleet + spares (~$31,000,000), vessel fit-outs and salvage/refrigeration (~$4,000,000), 10 active deterrent sites (~$30,000,000), sound-isolating booths (~$300,000), initial hardware for secure data/sat links (~$1,000,000).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $27.8M
[#6, #7, #18, #19, #27, #15, #32, #21, #20] Acoustic research lab setup (~$3,000,000), initial countermeasure R&D (~$15,000,000), signal filtering/dev (~$500,000), environmental assessments (~$300,000), training curriculum (~$2,500,000), medical clinic setup (~$500,000), initial reproduction/biology program (~$5,000,000), PR/setup and legal setup (~$500,000 each).
Contingency Reserve $25.0M
[#24] Incident response contingency fund (one-time set-aside) chosen conservatively within $10M–$100M range.
Facilities $9.0M
[#13] Coastal pathology / specimen handling facility build-out estimated at $3M–15M; chosen midpoint for regional capacity.
Helicopter Purchase $8.0M
[#12] Optional dedicated rapid-deployment helicopter purchase (~$5M–20M), midpoint chosen.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $98.2M/yr
Suppression Program Ops $25.0M/yr
[#25] If an active long-term suppression/eradication program is pursued: multi-year operational costs (high-end recurring).
Administrative Overhead $16.4M/yr
[#30] Program administrative overhead estimated at ~20% of direct annual operating budget.
Logistics And Transport $16.0M/yr
[#3, #11, #12, #29] Vessel operational costs (fuel, crew, port fees), emergency air/sea readiness ops and insurance/bonding.
Research And Monitoring $12.1M/yr
[#6, #7, #17, #18, #19, #22, #27, #32] Ongoing acoustic research upgrades, countermeasure refinement, secure data/cloud ops, ML model retraining, environmental monitoring, AIS/satellite analyst costs, refresher training and field biology program maintenance.
Security And Response $8.0M/yr
[#10] Covert security/MTF rapid-response team salaries, equipment and training costs.
Staff Wages $6.5M/yr
[#9] Core scientific and technical team salaries (20 researchers + 30 technicians/ROV pilots; benefits included).
Facilities Maintenance $6.3M/yr
[#2, #5, #8, #13] Hydrophone/deployment servicing, onboard recovery/equipment repairs, active-deterrent site maintenance and coastal facility operating costs.
Cover Story And Legal $4.8M/yr
[#20, #21, #23, #26] Legal/diplomatic liaison, PR/misinformation operations, coastal public-safety coordination and outreach/compensation to fisheries/tourism.
Supplies And Consumables $1.1M/yr
[#14, #16, #28] Large-specimen disposal contracts, PPE consumables and spare parts/consumable stockpile.
Rov Maintenance $1.0M/yr
[#4] Maintenance, spares and upkeep for deep-rated ROV/AUV fleet and launch systems.
Medical And Psych Care $1.0M/yr
[#15] Ongoing medical and psychological care program for exposed personnel.
Long Range Monitoring Expansion $0/yr
[#31] Expansion costs realized only if range increases; set to $0 for baseline recurring budget.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $98.2M/yr
81.5% probability / year
Normal operational year with steady monitoring, maintenance, research and program administration; no major incidents.
routine_monitoring no_major_strandings no_public_exposure
🚨 Minor Incident $101.2M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
Localized specimen recovery or small-scale stranding requiring additional salvage, disposal, medical care and PR containment.
single_large_carcass_recovery localized_public_incident additional_salvage_and_disposal
🚨 Major Breach $148.2M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Significant multi-victim incident or vessel loss requiring large-scale salvage/specialist operations, legal settlements and draw on contingency.
vessel_loss mass_casualty_recovery major_salvage_operations
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $298.2M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$200.0M vs baseline
Wide public exposure, multinational diplomatic/legal crisis or mass-casualty event requiring emergency suppression, large payouts and accelerated program scale-up.
public_disclosure transnational_incident large_scale_mass_casualties
👥 Personnel 50 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 20 [#9] Core researchers conducting acoustic/biological research; counts based on analyst note estimate.
Technician / ROV Pilot 30 [#9] Technical staff and vehicle pilots required for continuous remote operations.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges, enabling mid-point budgeting; however many costs (purchase vs charter, scale of suppression, environmental/legal outcomes) are highly uncertain so totals are best-estimate rather than high-confidence.
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