SCP-4831 — SCP-4831 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-4831 Safe ~ medium confidence

SCP-4831

Expected annual

$1.6M

One-time setup

$1.0M

Annual recurring

$1.6M

Personnel

One-time setup and contingency reserves total approximately $1.00M, driven by property acquisition, family buy-out, and an R&D/extraction reserve; recurring annual costs are approximately $1.58M/yr, dominated by staff wages, ongoing R&D/monitoring, and security/legal/contingency budgets.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.0M

R And D Extraction Reserve $500K

[#17] One-time reserve for breaching/diagnostic attempts and special equipment (~$500,000 moderate fund).

Family Buyout $150K

[#2] Lump-sum buy-out / relocation payment to family (estimated $150,000 one-time).

Retirement And Disposition Reserve $150K

[#25] Contingency reserve for disposition / site remediation / legal closure (~$150,000).

Facilities $115K

[#1, #9] Site purchase/property control (~$100,000) plus perimeter hardening/install (~$15,000).

Equipment $58K

[#10, #11, #16] Surveillance hardware and server (~$30,000), generator (~$12,500), and secure/data-archiving hardware (~$15,000).

Guardianship Compliance One Time $15K

[#14] One-time juvenile guardianship / welfare paperwork and consultation costs (~$15,000).

Secure Comms Setup $10K

[#8] Initial secure communications / redaction infrastructure setup (~$10,000).

Initial Vetting $5K

[#20] Initial background vetting / onboarding costs (~$5,000 per onboarding batch assumed).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $0

[]

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.6M/yr

Staff Wages $864K/yr

[#3, #4, #5] Security staff (6 guards + 1 supervisor), 2 monitoring analysts, 1 senior researcher + 1 technician; figures include benefits and overtime.

Research And Monitoring $250K/yr

[#17] Ongoing R&D / experimental work and diagnostics reserve (~$250,000/yr operational research budget).

Cover Story And Legal $105K/yr

[#13, #15] Legal retainer and liaison (~$75,000/yr) plus PR/cover-story contractor retainer (~$30,000/yr).

Emergency Response Reserve $100K/yr

[#6] Annual contingency reserve for medevac/rapid response or extraordinary extraction funding (~$100,000/yr).

Heavy Equipment Rental Reserve $50K/yr

[#18] Reserve for episodic heavy-equipment rental if operations are authorized (~$50,000/yr).

Liability Insurance And Litigation $50K/yr

[#19] Liability insurance premiums and litigation defense fund (~$50,000/yr).

Family Stipend $36K/yr

[#2] Monthly stipend to family / relocation support (~$3,000/mo = $36,000/yr).

Monitoring Software And Cloud $20K/yr

[#4] Monitoring software, cloud ingestion and moderation tools (~$20,000/yr).

Staff Training And Vetting $20K/yr

[#20] Ongoing training and periodic vetting (~$20,000/yr).

Medical And Mental Health $12K/yr

[#7] Telehealth, psychotherapy, phone/data plans and crisis counseling (~$12,000/yr).

Cover Payments $12K/yr

[#21] Small recurring payments to neighbors/public stakeholders (~$12,000/yr).

Logistics And Transport $10K/yr

[#22] Travel & transportation for site visits and specialist travel (~$10,000/yr).

Guardianship And Welfare Compliance $10K/yr

[#14] Ongoing juvenile guardianship / compliance services (~$10,000/yr).

Oversight And Audit $10K/yr

[#23] Records retention, internal audits and external oversight (~$10,000/yr).

Supplies And Consumables $8K/yr

[#24] Consumables, batteries, PPE, small repairs (~$8,000/yr).

Facilities Maintenance $7K/yr

[#9, #12] Perimeter maintenance, site lighting, gates, utilities and landscaping baseline (~$2,000 + $5,000).

Surveillance Maintenance And Storage $6K/yr

[#10] CCTV/audio tamper sensor maintenance and storage (~$6,000/yr).

Secure Comms Service $5K/yr

[#8] Recurring secure phone/data plan, VPN and cloud service costs (~$5,000/yr).

Power Redundancy Maintenance $4K/yr

[#11] Generator fuel, testing and maintenance (~$4,000/yr).

Data Archiving Maintenance $4K/yr

[#16] Ongoing secure archival storage and maintenance (~$3–5k/yr, budgeted $4k).

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.6M/yr

90.0% probability / year

Normal, uneventful year with scheduled operations, staffing, monitoring, and modest reserves used but no major incidents.

no_medical_emergency no_extraction_attempt standard_monitoring_and_maintenance

🚨 Minor Incident $1.7M/yr

7.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline

Localized emergency such as a medical crisis, small legal dispute or a limited extraction/diagnostic attempt that requires mobilization of emergency funds and overtime.

medical_evacuations short_term_extraction_attempt legal_dispute_or_settlement

🚨 Major Extraction Attempt $2.4M/yr

3.0% probability / year +$800K vs baseline

Full-scale, authorized extraction/breaching campaign or major incident requiring large contractor spends, heavy equipment, extensive R&D, and major legal/PR response.

approved_large_scale_extraction catastrophic_containment_challenge extensive_contractor_and_equipment_deployment

👥 Personnel 11 total

Role	Count	Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent	6	[#3] Six perimeter/guard positions (2 per shift, 3 shifts).
Security Supervisor	1	[#3] On-site supervisor for security rotations.
Analyst / Content Moderator	2	[#4] Remote monitoring / social media moderation staff.
Research Scientist	1	[#5] Senior researcher for oversight and liaison.
Technician	1	[#5] On-call technician for equipment, sensors, and field tasks.

📋 Confidence Notes

Line-item wage and equipment estimates are reasonably grounded in the analyst notes, but several large contingencies (R&D reserve, buy-out size, litigation exposure, and unknown provisioning needs of the trapped subject) introduce material uncertainty, so overall confidence is medium.

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