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SCP-4878 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4878
Expected annual
$2.8M
One-time setup
$10.7M
Annual recurring
$2.7M
Personnel
17
One-time containment and contingency setup is approximately $10.7M driven by catastrophic-release reserves, structural reinforcement, and specialized equipment; recurring operations are about $2.69M/yr driven by specialist staff wages, legal/cover operations, and ongoing monitoring/rapid-response readiness.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $10.7M
Catastrophic Reserve $5.5M
[#24] Large-scale catastrophic-release insurance/contingency reserve for major structural damage or mass remediation (#24).
Equipment $1.4M
[#2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #8, #9, #20] Redundant RF suppression hardware (#2), RF monitoring suite hardware (#3), radiological containment cask and certified transport container (#4), radiation monitoring equipment (#5), secure transport cases/vehicle mods (#6), perimeter sensor network (#8), rapid-response equipment purchase (#9), and IT/secure server hardware (#20).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $750K
[#12, #14, #15] Entomology research arena and containment upgrades (#12), reverse-engineering/test rig lab setup (#14), and neuroscience/BSL upgrades for human cerebellum handling (#15).
Facilities $695K
[#1, #7, #11] Faraday-caged locker installation (#1), site pest‑proofing/sealing (#7), and structural reinforcement work (#11) including installation labor and building modifications.
Emergency Repairs Reserve $625K
[#11] One-time contingency reserve for emergency repairs after structural damage from swarms (part of #11).
Legal Cover Initial $600K
[#17] Initial legal/cover-up/compensation fund, property purchases, and initial amnestic provisioning (#17).
Decommission Reserve $450K
[#16] Reserved fund for radiological and biohazard disposal/decommissioning of RTG and tissue (#16).
Insurance Reserve $300K
[#19] Initial insurance/environmental liability reserve and regulatory compliance reserve (#19).
Administrative Contingency $300K
[#25] One-time administrative contingency and program-level procurement contingency (#25).
Amnestic Supply Stockpile $50K
[#18] Initial stockpile of amnestic/medical supplies and secure storage (#18).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.7M/yr
Staff Wages $1.4M/yr
[#10, #21, #15] Rapid-response task force staffing and readiness (#10), specialist research staff salaries (entomologists, RF engineers, technicians) (#21), and recurring neuroscience personnel/disposables for cerebellum handling (#15).
Cover Story And Legal $488K/yr
[#17, #18, #19] Ongoing legal/cover operations and compensation, amnestic deployment/replenishment costs, and regulatory/compliance monitoring costs (#17, #18, #19).
Administrative Overhead $325K/yr
[#25] Program management, procurement administration, accounting, audits and annual contingency (~15% planning estimate) (#25).
Research And Monitoring $222K/yr
[#3, #4, #5, #8, #12, #13, #14] RF monitoring calibration and logging costs (#3), RTG monitoring & licensing recurring costs (#4), radiation technician time and consumables (#5), perimeter sensor maintenance & monitoring (#8), entomology lab operations (#12), colony maintenance (#13), and follow-up reverse-engineering testing (#14).
It And Data Security $100K/yr
[#20] Recurring cybersecurity staffing, secure backups, and offsite cold storage for logs and video (#20).
Logistics And Transport $60K/yr
[#6] Recurring secure-transport and escort costs per move (estimated annual transfers and escort costs) (#6).
Supplies And Consumables $35K/yr
[#22] Routine consumables, PPE, replacement gaskets/filters, biohazard disposables and related consumables (#22).
Training Drills Audits $25K/yr
[#23] Regular emergency response exercises, multi-department drills, contractor observers, and after-action reports (#23).
Facilities Maintenance $20K/yr
[#7] Ongoing pest-control service and general facility maintenance to keep insect-proofing and filtered HVAC operational (#7).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.7M/yr
90.0% probability / year
Normal year with no major incidents; regular operations, monitoring, and training only.
routine monitoring scheduled training no breach events
🚨 Minor Incident $2.9M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Localized swarm activation or small breach requiring rapid-response deployment, minor structural repairs and additional legal/cover actions.
localized swarm breach small RTG alarm or containment alarm minor civilian exposure requiring amnestics
🚨 Major Breach $4.2M/yr
1.5% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Significant swarm breach causing extended response, structural damage, RTG exposure alarms and multi-week remediation.
extended swarm-induced structural damage RTG containment compromise large-scale remediation and public-facing legal action
🚨 Catastrophic Release $7.7M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Catastrophic activation producing large SCP-4878-A constructs, major urban damage, RTG contamination requiring long-term remediation and large indemnities.
city-scale swarm attack RTG environmental contamination mass civilian exposure or infrastructure loss
👥 Personnel 17 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 3 [#21, #14, #12] Senior scientists for entomology, RF and neuroscience research; referenced in specialist staff (#21) and reverse-engineering/entomology programs (#14, #12).
Technician 3 [#21, #12, #13] Laboratory and entomology technicians for colony maintenance and arena operations (#21, #12, #13).
Radiological Technician 1 [#5, #21] On-call radiological tech for dosimetry, surveys, and RTG monitoring (#5, #21).
Rapid Response Team / MTF Agents 6 [#10, #9] Dedicated containment task force personnel for 24/7 on-call response, vehicle crews and operators (#10, #9).
Security Officer / MTF Agent 2 [#6, #10] Security escorts and site security augmentation for transports and responses (#6, #10).
IT / Cybersecurity 1 [#20] IT specialist for secure logging, backups and cybersecurity operations (#20).
Administrative Staff / Program Manager 1 [#25] Program manager/administrative support for procurement, accounting and audits (#25).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates use midpoints of analyst ranges where available; containment hardware and staffing costs are well-defined, but incident frequencies and scale costs (transfers, repairs, catastrophic reserves) are uncertain, producing moderate confidence.
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