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SCP-4901 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-4901
Expected annual
$15.2M
One-time setup
$380.4M
Annual recurring
$12.4M
Personnel
29
Initial capital to fully enable advanced containment (MCU R&D/fabrication and optional BSL-4 construction) dominates one-time costs (~$380M). Recurring annual operations (staff, research, legal/cover, amnestics, waste handling, logistics) are on the order of $12.3M per year under normal conditions.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $380.4M
Facilities $302.5M
[#12, #14, #21] Waterfront property acquisition, potential BSL-4 construction, and quarantine suite/site buildouts.
Mcu Rnd And Fabrication $58.0M
[#15] R&D, prototyping and fabrication of the first deployable Mobile Containment Unit (MCU) — dominant program capital expense.
Containment Failure Planning Reserve $10.0M
[#28] Planning reserve for large-scale escalation contingencies (planning funds held aside).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $4.8M
[#8, #13, #19] Amnestic R&D/production setup, research lab instrument purchases, and initial secure cold-chain/logistics setup for samples.
Equipment $2.3M
[#2, #5, #6, #9, #4, #25] Mobile response boats/barges, underwater sensor installation, drone hardware, mobile evidence truck, initial PPE/decon trailers kit-out, and initial IT/secure-comms setup.
Specialized Engineering Consultancy One Time $1.5M
[#20] Materials science/robotics consultancy retainers and project fees during development (one-time program engagements).
Mcu Spares One Time $500K
[#16] One-time purchase of specialized spares/specialized consumables for MCU prototypes and field units.
Dredging Initial $500K
[#18] One-time modest dredging/riverbed remediation operation (site-dependent).
Cover Entity Setup $300K
[#10] Initial setup costs for cover entities / NGO-style front operations.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $12.4M/yr
Staff Wages $2.9M/yr
[#1] Emergency field-response teams and associated fully-loaded salaries/benefits for ~18–36 specialized personnel (chosen midpoint staffing cost).
Research And Monitoring $1.7M/yr
[#5, #13] Underwater/riverbed sensor monitoring, ROV inspections, and dedicated research program operational costs.
Program Management Overhead $1.6M/yr
[#30] Program management, senior staff, compliance and contingency applied as ~15% of recurring operational budget.
Insurance Legal Reserve $1.0M/yr
[#22] Annual reserve allocation for legal contingencies, settlements and defense funds.
Witness Relocation Program $1.0M/yr
[#24] Relocation, compensation, housing and aftercare reserves for witnesses who cannot be amnesticized.
Cover Story And Legal $850K/yr
[#7, #10] Media monitoring, misinformation control, legal takedown budgets, retained attorneys and cover-story maintenance.
Logistics And Transport $625K/yr
[#3, #9, #19, #6, #29] Boat/barge operating costs (fuel, docking, maintenance), evidence processing logistics, sample transport cold-chain ops, drone flight operations (ops portion), and occasional heavy-lift/permit logistics.
Amnestic Production And Use $500K/yr
[#8] Ongoing per-dose production, cold chain, administration-trained medics and field amnestic use stock rotation.
Quarantine Staffing $400K/yr
[#21] Staffing and readiness costs for quarantine beds, rapid diagnostics and medical follow-up.
Mcu Operations $300K/yr
[#16] Power, pumps, filtration, refrigeration, consumables and routine operational support for MCUs in the field.
Hazardous Waste Disposal $300K/yr
[#17] Ongoing biohazard transport, incineration/autoclave processing and permitted disposal operations.
Engineering Retainer Recurring $250K/yr
[#20] Ongoing consultancy retainers during R&D iterations and field modifications.
Local Government Liaison $200K/yr
[#11] Interagency agreements, permit facilitation, reimbursements and liaison staffing.
Supplies And Consumables $185K/yr
[#4, #27] PPE consumables, decon supplies, single-use biohazard consumables and frequent-response consumables.
Public Mitigation $150K/yr
[#23] Temporary closures, signage, drain management and permitting during mitigation activities.
It Ops $150K/yr
[#25] Secure communications upkeep, encrypted storage, backups and forensic capability operations.
Training Drills $150K/yr
[#26] Regular containment drills, MCU mockups, amnestic administration training and tabletop exercises.
Sample Transport Ops $75K/yr
[#19] Per-sample shipping and secure cold-chain transport operational budget.
Consumables For Frequent Low Level Incidents $60K/yr
[#27] Routine cleaning, filters, replacement seals, sedatives and other response consumables.
Facilities Maintenance $0/yr
[]
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $12.4M/yr
62.5% probability / year
Uneventful year with regular monitoring, responses, research and cover operations only.
no major sightings routine responses only normal research cadence
🚨 Minor Incident $12.8M/yr
30.0% probability / year +$365K vs baseline
Localized sighting or small containment response requiring extra boat sorties, evidence processing, and additional amnestic doses.
multiple sightings small deployment of MCU prototype or boats increased amnestic/administering
🚨 Major Breach $17.3M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$4.9M vs baseline
Significant containment failure requiring full MCU deployment, extended field operations, large hazardous-waste disposal and temporary relocation costs.
MCU activation extended multi-day containment effort major evidence disposal and public exposure control
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $262.3M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$249.9M vs baseline
Large-scale exposure necessitating city-level mitigation: mass amnestic deployment, major dredging/remediation, legal settlements and emergency public measures.
uncontrolled spread widespread public exposure need for mass intervention
🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $72.3M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$59.9M vs baseline
Successful containment research or decision to mass-produce MCUs/construct adjacent high-containment facilities requiring large capital outlays.
R&D indicates feasible scalable MCU decision to fabricate multiple units or upgrade to local BSL-4
👥 Personnel 29 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 12 [#1] Armed containment guards and marine-capable response personnel for 24/7 coverage and rotation.
Research Scientist 5 [#1, #13] On-call scientists for field sampling, pathology/genomics/toxicology and R&D support.
Medical Officer 3 [#1, #8, #21] Medics for amnestic administration, exposure treatment and quarantine operations.
Hazmat Technician 4 [#1, #4, #17] HAZMAT technicians for decon, PPE handling and hazardous-waste management.
Boat Operator / MTF Marine 3 [#1, #2, #3] Skilled boat crews for patrols, MCU/tactical deployments and evidence transfer.
Administrative Staff 2 [#7, #10] Program admin, public-affairs coordination, legal support and logistics.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide line-item ranges for most categories, allowing midpoint estimates; however major unknowns (whether a permanent BSL-4 is required, MCU technical outcomes, and frequency/severity of breaches) create significant upside risk, so confidence is medium.
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