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SCP-4987 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4987
Expected annual
$447.5M
One-time setup
$42.0M
Annual recurring
$437.0M
Personnel
60
Initial capital costs are dominated by monitoring hardware and specialized equipment with an estimated one-time spend of roughly $42M. Recurring annual costs are driven by large standing reserves, staff payroll, field operations, and contingency readiness, producing an annual baseline near $437M.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $42.0M
Equipment $24.1M
[#3, #6, #8, #12, #18, #28] Secure on-prem/colocated servers and HA cluster, research vessel/autonomous surface vehicles/hydrophones/tags, distributed magnetometer hardware and site installation, HPC cluster, emergency broadcast hardware, one-time song-rights negotiation/buyout.
Operational Contingency Reserve One Time $11.0M
[#14] One-time reserved planning/contingency fund for Operation Mindful Sustainability planning, legal/ethical reviews and pre-authorized contingencies.
Facilities $4.0M
[#1] Secure Central Program Office build-out, SCIF-like fit-out, secure comms and IT room.
Decommissioning And Data Destruction $3.0M
[#29] Secure data destruction, contract terminations, severance, equipment disposal in the event of program wind-down.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $437.0M/yr
Contingency Reserve Recurring $275.0M/yr
[#15] Standing discretionary fund reserved for immediate large-scale responses, logistics, leases, emergency purchases and international payments.
Insurance And Litigation Reserve $105.0M/yr
[#25] Reserved funds earmarked for settlements, litigation defense, or emergency public mitigation in exposure events.
Misc Unforeseen Reserve $10.5M/yr
[#30] Flexible fund for unanticipated international political actions, expedited permits, emergency charters.
Staff Wages $9.0M/yr
[#2] Payroll for core program staff (approx. 60 FTEs at a loaded average of $150k/yr).
Medical Surge Preparedness $8.5M/yr
[#20] Maintenance of mobile ICU capacity, stockpiles, training for mass-coma events and limited ongoing readiness.
Logistics And Transport $6.8M/yr
[#7, #19] Vessel charters/crewing and maintenance for cetacean surveys, rapid-reaction team deployments, travel and per diem for field teams.
Cover Story And Legal $5.5M/yr
[#16, #17, #28] Ongoing legal counsel/diplomacy, covert PR/cover strategy, media buys/public messaging campaigns, recurring song-licensing fees.
Wildlife Population Management $5.2M/yr
[#23] Non-lethal cetacean population management research, pilot programs, sterilization studies, habitat modification trials.
Research And Monitoring $5.0M/yr
[#4, #5, #10, #11] Cloud compute/storage/subscriptions, population and mobility data purchases, satellite/data feeds and tasking costs, ongoing neuroscience & modelling research.
Contingent Long Term Care Per Case $3.0M/yr
[#21] Planning figure (per affected individual) for lifetime nursing/long-term care; included as a per-case contingent liability estimate.
International Coordination $1.1M/yr
[#24] Liaison officers, secondments to partner agencies, embassy/coordination posts.
Supplies And Consumables $600K/yr
[#13] Field sensor consumables: batteries, tag replacements, hydrophone cabling, buoy maintenance, spare parts.
Magnetometer Operations $600K/yr
[#9] Power, telemetry, maintenance, calibration and servicing for the distributed magnetometer network.
Training Exercises $600K/yr
[#27] Annual tabletop simulations, partner exercises, detection threshold testing and scenario runs.
Bioethics And Oversight $300K/yr
[#22] External/internal ethics panels, IRBs, public transparency officers, oversight costs.
Recruitment Vetting $275K/yr
[#26] Background checks, security clearances, polygraphs where lawful.
Facilities Maintenance $0/yr
[]
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $437.0M/yr
87.9% probability / year
Normal year with steady-state monitoring, research, and reserves maintained but no major incidents.
steady_monitoring no_major_exposure routine_field_operations
🚨 Minor Incident $442.0M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Localized alignment spike or small cluster of affected individuals requiring rapid assessment, targeted field response, and increased public messaging.
localized_alignment_spike small_scale_coma_cluster unusual_magnetic_readings
🚨 Major Breach $687.0M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$250.0M vs baseline
Significant alignment event or partial public exposure requiring use of contingency funds, international coordination, emergency medical response and large-scale PR/legal action.
widespread_alignment_events partial_public_exposure large_cetacean_mass_alignment
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $5.4B/yr
0.1% probability / year +$5.0B vs baseline
SCP-4987 triggers at scale (P4987 reached) with mass neural shutdown and long-term care liabilities; program executes full operational mitigation and long-term response.
global_alignment_event mass_coma_incidents full_scale_mitigation_deployment
👥 Personnel 60 total
Role Count Notes
Program Director / Executive Staff 2 [#2] Senior leadership and program oversight.
Research Scientist 12 [#2] Demographers, marine biologists, neurologists engaged in core research.
Data Scientist / GIS Analyst 8 [#2] Data ingestion, modeling, geospatial analysis.
Marine Field Technicians / Crew 6 [#2] Vessel crews, tagging teams and field sensor technicians.
Medical Officer / Neurology Specialists 4 [#2] Clinical oversight, medical surge planning and assessment.
Legal Counsel / Diplomatic Liaison 3 [#2] Legal, international coordination and diplomatic engagement.
Public Relations / Communications Officer 2 [#2] Media strategy, public messaging and cover operations.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#2] Physical security of facilities, rapid-response security deployments.
Operations Coordinator / Logistics 6 [#2] Field logistics, procurement and rapid team tasking.
Administrative Staff 9 [#2] Administrative support, HR, finance and program administration.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst-provided ranges allow a defensible mid-range budgeting but large uncertainties remain in the size and treatment of reserved funds and in low-probability catastrophic liabilities; anomalous nature of SCP-4987 also increases uncertainty.
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