SCP-4989 — SCP-4989 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-4989 Keter ~ medium confidence

SCP-4989

Expected annual

$16.5M

One-time setup

$114.2M

Annual recurring

$15.2M

Personnel

Large one-time capital and contingency reserves dominate upfront costs (notably an emergency/catastrophic reserve and initial R&D/equipment). Annual operating costs are driven by human analysts, opportunity/productivity overhead, and ongoing monitoring, legal/cover-up, and readiness expenses.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $114.2M

Contingency Catastrophic Reserve $100.0M

[#27] Single-event catastrophic response reserve sized to permit large-scale mobilization, quarantines, evacuations, international operations.

Initial Research And Lab Setup $4.1M

[#8, #10] Initial R&D program funding for detection/containment tech (#8) and one-time archival digitization/setup (#10).

Equipment $3.9M

[#1, #4, #7, #11, #13, #20, #21, #22] Communications monitoring hardware and development (#1), RIT vehicles/equipment (#4), wearable-device procurement (#7), secure-storage hardware (#11), trauma equipment capex (#13), logistics/vehicle kit builds (#20), initial ammunition stockpile (#21), and secure comms hardware (#22).

Insurance Reserve $3.0M

[#16] One-time insurance/indemnity reserve for settlements and major payouts.

Facilities $2.1M

[#9, #19] Includes construction of experimental containment prototypes/testing facilities (#9) and one-time physical security/site upgrade structural work (#19).

Goi Emergency Payout Reserve $1.0M

[#15] One-time contingency reserve for urgent GoI/liaison emergency payments described in notes.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $15.2M/yr

Opportunity Cost Overhead $3.8M/yr

[#28] Productivity overhead from personnel diverted to monitoring/on-call duties (estimated 5–10% of affected payroll; midpoint used).

Staff Wages $3.0M/yr

[#3] Salaries and benefits for the 24/7 human analyst/watch team (~30 analysts × $80k + benefits = ~$3.0M/yr).

Cover Story And Legal $1.7M/yr

[#14, #24] Legal retainer and public-affairs/cover-up operations (#14) plus covert public outreach/covert reporting programs (#24).

Replacement And Recruiting $1.0M/yr

[#17] Recruiting, vetting, and initial training reserve for replacing specialized personnel lost to demanifestation.

Rapid Incident Team Operations $800K/yr

[#5] On-call premiums, hazard pay, travel budgets, and exercises for 4 RITs (operational readiness costs).

Research And Monitoring $685K/yr

[#2, #10, #23] Ongoing communications monitoring/cloud/API costs (#2), ongoing research staff/operations (#10), and regular simulation/tabletop/red-team exercises (#23).

Insurance Replenishment $500K/yr

[#16] Annual replenishment to insurance/settlement reserve as described.

Physical Security Recurring $500K/yr

[#19] Additional guard shifts, biometric/CCTV maintenance, and recurring security staffing/maintenance costs.

Cybersecurity $500K/yr

[#26] SOC analysts, counter-intel, and protection for monitoring infrastructure and staff identities.

Goi Liaison And Payments $400K/yr

[#15] Ongoing government/GoI liaison, discreet payments, and negotiated arrangements.

Training And Readiness $375K/yr

[#6] Additional training cycles, live-fire, scenario drills and instructor/range costs (estimate midpoint for 500 at-risk personnel).

Mental Health And Rehabilitation $350K/yr

[#12] Counseling, PTSD treatment, inpatient care and long-term psychiatric support for survivors and affected staff.

Medevac Contracts $350K/yr

[#13] Medevac standby/contract costs and recurring trauma readiness agreements.

Facilities Maintenance $310K/yr

[#11, #18] Ongoing secure-storage/backup maintenance and increased facility utility/maintenance overhead (air-gapped storage upkeep, generator/HVAC/runtime).

Logistics And Transport $300K/yr

[#20] Fleet maintenance, fuel, spares, rapid-deploy trailers, and regional stash upkeep.

Supplies And Consumables $275K/yr

[#29, #21] Misc consumables and petty expenses (#29) plus ammunition/less-lethal replenishment (#21).

Archive Personnel And Admin $250K/yr

[#25] Administrative and legal handling for demanifestation events, estate management, memorials, and HR processing.

Wearable Maintenance $125K/yr

[#7] Replacement/maintenance and connectivity costs for wearable alert devices and kits.

Comms Maintenance $100K/yr

[#22] Bandwidth, satellite uplink costs, hardware token replacement and secure-channel maintenance.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $15.2M/yr

83.0% probability / year

Normal year with no major incidents; routine monitoring, training, and readiness expenses only.

no_incident routine_operations

🚨 Minor Incident $17.2M/yr

15.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline

Localized SCP-4989 event targeting Foundation personnel requiring RIT deployment, increased medical/mental-health support, legal response, and some replacement hiring.

single-site_event RIT_deployment limited_public_exposure

🚨 Catastrophic Breach $65.2M/yr

2.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline

Major multi-region resurgence or mass targeting event requiring large-scale mobilization, international coordination, evacuations, and extensive remediation.

widespread_targeting mass_casualties international_crisis

👥 Personnel 30 total

Role	Count	Notes
Human Analyst / Watch Team	30	[#3] 24/7 multi-lingual analysts (30 total) covered by the staff_wages recurring line (~$3.0M/yr including benefits).

📋 Confidence Notes

Many line items are informed rough estimates or wide ranges provided by analysts (particularly R&D success, catastrophic reserve sizing, and legal/liaison budgets). Operational staffing and monitoring costs are better constrained, but several large items (contingency reserve, R&D) introduce uncertainty.

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