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SCP-4994 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-4994
Expected annual
$8.4M
One-time setup
$17.9M
Annual recurring
$7.8M
Personnel
46
Initial buildout and specialized equipment (submersibles, BSL-3 lab, secure comms) drive one-time costs (~$18M), while ongoing staff, research/monitoring, and reverse-engineering/diplomacy programs dominate recurring costs (~$7.8M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $17.9M
Equipment $6.5M
[#3, #6, #8, #9, #10, #15, #22, #24] Perimeter/surveillance hardware, primary and backup submersibles, support vessels, communications hardware, one-time medical gear, vehicles, and secure server hardware.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $5.8M
[#11, #18] BSL-3 laboratory buildout and initial reverse-engineering / high-end instrumentation lab setup.
Facilities $3.6M
[#1, #2, #12, #14, #19] Site acquisition/site-prep and provisional construction (docks, helipad, roads, berms), vault construction, decontamination infrastructure and façade/fake infrastructure costs.
Program Contingency Reserve $2.0M
[#26] Initial establishment of a multi-year contingency/escalation reserve fund.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $7.8M/yr
Staff Wages $3.0M/yr
[#4, #5] Salaries and benefits for 24/7 armed security and core scientific/engineering/medical/operations staff.
Research And Monitoring $2.0M/yr
[#17, #21, #24, #18] Translation/anthropology/intel program, environmental/eDNA monitoring, recurring data storage/cybersecurity, and annual reverse-engineering program burn.
Supplies And Consumables $850K/yr
[#11, #13, #14, #15, #25] Lab consumables/PPE, per-visit marginal costs (monthly visits), decontamination waste handling, medical supplies, and general on-site consumables/admin overhead.
Diplomatic Engagement $400K/yr
[#16] Salaries/operations for liaisons, translation services, cultural engagement budgets, and recurring gifts/exchanges to SCP-4994-2/3.
Submersible Maintenance And Ops $300K/yr
[#7] Annual maintenance, spare parts, drydock/overhaul cycles, pilot/technician operations (non-salary maintenance/ops portion).
Emergency Response Retainer $300K/yr
[#20] Medevac/airlift/heavy-lift and emergency-response contractors retainers (annual).
Facilities Maintenance $200K/yr
[#1, #2, #3, #12] Ongoing site and building maintenance, generator/utility upkeep, perimeter/sensor maintenance, and vault environmental control.
Cover Story And Legal $200K/yr
[#19] Legal retainers, cover-story maintenance, local liaison/retainer payments and occasional forensic cover-up budgets.
Program Contingency Topup $200K/yr
[#26] Annual top-up to the contingency/escalation reserve.
Logistics And Transport $155K/yr
[#9, #22] Support vessel and small-boat fuel/maintenance and on-site vehicle fuel/maintenance and couriers.
Training And Drills $110K/yr
[#23] Regular drills, psychological support, external training travel and scenario exercises.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $7.8M/yr
65.0% probability / year
Normal year with monthly visits, routine maintenance, and ongoing research with no major incidents.
monthly_visits routine_maintenance steady_research_program
🚨 Minor Incident $8.3M/yr
20.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Localized containment incident or equipment failure requiring emergency response, repairs, and legal/liaison expenditure.
small_breach submersible_repair legal/liaison_payments
🚨 Major Breach $12.8M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Significant containment failure or loss of primary assets (submersible/vessel) requiring heavy recovery, replacement of equipment, and large legal/diplomatic response.
submersible_loss large_recovery_operation major_diplomatic_crisis
🚨 Research Scale Up $10.3M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline
Deliberate expansion of reverse-engineering and exploitation program resulting in elevated annual burn for labs, contractors and capital projects.
programmatic_escalation large_contract_awards capital_investment_in_R&D
👥 Personnel 46 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 15 24/7 armed security covering three shifts; maps to staff salary estimates in [#4].
Research Scientist 20 Marine/planetary scientists, physicists, engineers, linguists, BSL specialists and analysts; maps to [#5].
Submersible Pilot / Technician 3 Pilots and ROV technicians required for monthly visits and operations; referenced in [#7] and staff estimates in [#5].
Support Vessel Crew / Boat Operator 2 Crew for launch/recovery and patrol craft; associated with [#9].
Medical Officer 1 On-site medic/paramedic for rapid response and screening; maps to [#5] and [#15].
Engineer / Maintenance 3 Facility, generator and equipment maintenance staff; supports [#2], [#3], [#7].
Administrative Staff 2 Operations manager, admin support for logistics and liaison; included in [#5].
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are midpoint-based from wide analyst ranges; many line items (reverse-engineering, contingency, diplomacy) are highly variable, producing moderate confidence.
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