SCP-5007 Keter ? low confidence
SCP-5007
Expected annual
$17.9M
One-time setup
$117.0M
Annual recurring
$16.8M
Personnel
82
Estimated one-time capital expenditures are dominated by site construction, marine works and contingency reserves (~$117M); recurring annual operations (staff, vessels, monitoring, covert operations and maintenance) are estimated at ~$16.8M per year, driven primarily by payroll and vessel/monitoring operations.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $117.0M
Facilities $40.8M
[#1, #2, #4, #34] Construction of Cell-5007-A (reinforced concrete chamber and ballistic glazing), Site 40-R civil infrastructure (roads, dock, helipad, utilities, living quarters, sewage/waste) site-wide protective netting installation, and potential demolition/reversal costs for previously constructed seal.
Sunk Seal $30.0M
[#3] Sunk cost for the 44 m diameter × 6 m thick reinforced concrete/steel seal (already constructed).
Equipment $22.2M
[#6, #9, #11, #20, #21, #24, #25, #31] Initial deployment of monitoring sensor network (hydrophones, sonar buoys, radar, cameras), offshore vessel purchase/outfitting, on-site rescue craft and winches/harnesses, patrol assets procurement, remote termination procurement (weapons/RWS), generator installation, HVAC installation, and secure communications/IT setup.
Insurance Contingency Reserve $20.0M
[#33] One-time capital reserve / insurance for catastrophic containment failure or public exposure (reserved capital).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $2.0M
[#8, #30] Predictive modelling software development and HPC procurement; forensics and limited-sample analysis equipment (electron microscope, mass spec, sequencers).
Environmental And Regulatory Reserve One Time $2.0M
[#32] One-time contingency/reserve for environmental remediation, cleanup and legal contingency tied to construction/incident risk.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $16.8M/yr
Staff Wages $7.8M/yr
[#10, #13, #14, #15, #26, #35] Salaries and benefits for security personnel & armed fire teams, research staff, medical staff, vessel crew portion (salaries), rotation/overtime multiplier due to 40-minute no-still rule, and administrative/program management overhead.
Insurance Reserve Replenishment $2.0M/yr
[#33] Annual replenishment for insurance/contingency capital to maintain reserve against catastrophic containment failure/public exposure.
Logistics And Transport $1.9M/yr
[#10, #19, #20, #21, #22] Vessel crew maintenance/operating costs (non-salary portions: maintenance/drydock/insurance/parts), airspace/maritime rerouting enforcement budget, patrol assets operations, remote-weapon ammunition & sustainment, and ammunition storage/security compliance costs.
Research And Monitoring $1.4M/yr
[#6, #7, #8, #30, #31] Ongoing monitoring sensor network subscriptions/maintenance, satellite imagery & tasking subscriptions, HPC/compute & model support, forensics consumables, and secure communications/IT operational costs.
Facilities Maintenance $1.2M/yr
[#5, #23, #24, #25] Netting maintenance and replacement, ballistic glass & structural repair reserve (annual budget), power generation fuel & ops, HVAC operation and maintenance.
Cover Story And Legal $1.1M/yr
[#17, #18, #28] Ongoing cover-up and disinformation operations capability, legal/liaison/covert coordination with civil authorities, and civilian evacuation logistics / cover-story contingency budgets.
Amnestic Program $500K/yr
[#16] Class-B amnestic procurement, administration, aftercare and program management (annual program costs depending on usage).
Environmental And Regulatory Reserve Replenishment $500K/yr
[#32] Annual replenishment for environmental & regulatory contingency reserve to cover remediation and mitigation post-incident.
Supplies And Consumables $400K/yr
[#12, #27, #29] Harness/winch routine inspection & replacement, training/drills (evacuation, live-fire, retrieval rehearsals), and psychological care / counselling for exposed staff.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $16.8M/yr
83.0% probability / year
Normal operating year with no major containment incidents; routine monitoring, maintenance, payroll, cover operations and reserves replenished at planned levels.
no emergences beyond routine no public exposure normal maintenance cycles
🚨 Minor Incident $17.8M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Localized emergence requiring evacuation, short-term surge response, vessel tasking, targeted repairs and increased cover-up activity but no catastrophic damage to infrastructure.
single emergence near populated shore partial damage to netting or glazing short evacuation and cover-up required
🚨 Major Breach $66.8M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Significant containment failure or high-profile public exposure requiring large-scale remediation, asset replacement, environmental cleanup, legal settlement or heavy covert operations.
catastrophic containment breach public/political exposure major infrastructure loss (vessels/seal failure)
👥 Personnel 82 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 45 [#13] 45 FTEs estimated (midpoint of 30–60 range) to provide 24/7 armed fire teams, rotation and relief; budgeted at ~ $60k fully-loaded each.
Research Scientist 15 [#14, #26] 15 FTE research staff (marine biologists, pathologists, data scientists, meteorologists) including rotation burdens from the >40-minute non-still rule; headcount chosen to align with research payroll estimate.
Medical Officer 4 [#15] On-site medics and clinic capability; count consistent with medical payroll estimate and medevac contracting.
Vessel Crew / Maritime Operator 8 [#9, #10] Crew to staff Foundation vessels (estimate aligned with vessel crew payroll included in staff_wages and vessel ops).
Administrative Staff 10 [#35] Program management, procurement, secure accounting and compliance staff included in administrative overhead payroll.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based on broad ranges provided in analyst notes; the anomalous nature of SCP-5007, site remoteness, and large uncertainty in frequency/severity of emergences and policy decisions (e.g., seal usage, level of redundancy) reduce confidence. Figures are defensible mid-range selections but carry substantial upside/downside risk.
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