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SCP-5186 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-5186
Expected annual
$31.4M
One-time setup
$112.4M
Annual recurring
$30.9M
Personnel
90
Initial capital/setup is large (roughly $112.4M) driven by vessels, a command/mothership, sonar infrastructure, buoys, unmanned systems and a coastal site; annual recurring costs are substantial (~$30.9M/yr) driven by staffing, maintenance, research, contingency reserves and logistics.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $112.4M
Equipment $73.3M
[#1, #2, #6, #9, #11, #14, #19, #22, #27] Purchase of 3 patrol vessels and outfitting, command/mothership capital purchase, buoy/hydrophone network, unmanned systems (AUVs/USVs/UAVs), medical imaging/medbay equipment, mobile decon/quarantine units, rapid-response aircraft purchase, and secure communications hardware.
Facilities $31.5M
[#7, #12] Shore-based long-baseline sonar array and installation plus construction/retrofit of a secure coastal Site-39 facility (sonar control, labs, command center).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $6.0M
[#29] R&D pilot and laboratory buildout for long-term mitigation program and technical development (initial one-time R&D capital).
Amnestic Development And Stockpile $1.2M
[#16] Development and initial stockpile of SCP-5186-specific amnestics (development + initial production).
Legal Cover Establishment $375K
[#20] One-time legal/NGO front establishment and initial PR/legal setup to support the cover story.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $30.9M/yr
Staff Wages $8.4M/yr
[#3, #13] Salaries and benefits for vessel crews (~30) and Site-39 operations/staff (~60).
Facilities Maintenance $6.5M/yr
[#5, #10, #26, #6] Vessel maintenance/drydock (~10% of purchase), buoy servicing/comm leases, site energy/utilities, and mothership operations/maintenance.
Research And Monitoring $5.8M/yr
[#8, #23, #29] Sonar/array operations & calibration, ongoing neuroscience and data-analysis research programs, and continued mitigation R&D operations.
Contingency Reserve $3.0M/yr
[#25] Annual reserve for major unexpected incidents (vessel loss, mass exposure, international incidents).
Logistics And Transport $2.2M/yr
[#4, #11, #22] Patrol vessel fuel and consumables, unmanned-system ops/maintenance, and emergency response/rapid air-sea lift readiness charter/ops.
Political And Diplomatic Costs $1.2M/yr
[#30] Ongoing political/diplomatic contingency spending to handle foreign-government engagement or payoff scenarios.
Insurance And Overhead $1.2M/yr
[#28] Administrative overhead, accounting, low-profile insurance-like reserve and bureaucratic costs (~10% of operations).
Supplies And Consumables $960K/yr
[#15, #19, #16] Medical operations/consumables and screening, disposables for decon/quarantine, and annual amnestic replenishment/logistics (excludes per-incident doses).
Cover Story And Legal $350K/yr
[#20] Ongoing legal counsel, PR work, NGO front operations, permits and low-level payments to maintain the maritime cover story.
Civilian Compensation Fund $350K/yr
[#21] Retainer/compensation fund for fishermen and commercial interests discouraged from entering the exclusion area; baseline annual retainer.
Psych Support And Rehab $300K/yr
[#17] Ongoing counseling, rehabilitation and long-term mental health monitoring for exposed personnel.
Training And Drills $200K/yr
[#18] Regular Blindside Protocol drills, non-lethal engagement and medical response exercises.
Intelligence And Satellite $200K/yr
[#24] Commercial satellite tasking, AIS intercepts and regional intelligence feeds for traffic/breach monitoring.
Communications Leases $200K/yr
[#27] Satcom/data leases and telemetry bandwidth for buoys, ships and shore links.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $30.9M/yr
81.0% probability / year
Normal year of continuous covert containment with routine operations, maintenance, research and reserves.
routine_patrols scheduled_maintenance ongoing_research
🚨 Minor Incident $31.9M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$991K vs baseline
Limited exposure event or small vessel loss requiring surge response, amnestic use and local payouts.
single_vessel_incident limited_mass_exposure small_cover_payouts
🚨 Major Breach $38.9M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$8.0M vs baseline
Serious containment breach with vessel loss, multiple casualties, large-scale amnestic deployment and salvage/cover-up costs.
fleet_loss mass_exposure international_attention
🚨 Political Exposure $45.9M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$15.0M vs baseline
Disclosure to foreign government or public that requires large diplomatic payouts, prolonged PR/countermeasures and operational scaling.
government_disclosure media_exposure diplomatic_crisis
👥 Personnel 90 total
Role Count Notes
Patrol Crew / MTF Agent 30 3 vessels × ~8–10 crew each; trained for Blindside Protocol and cover-story interaction. [#3]
Research Scientist 12 Neuroscience/marine biology staff for experiments and long-term studies. [#13, #23]
Sonar Technician 8 Operate and maintain shore and hull-mounted sonar arrays and data fusion systems. [#7, #8]
Medical Officer 6 Medbay staff to run imaging, emergency care and amnestic administration. [#14, #15, #16]
Psychologist / Counsellor 4 Ongoing mental health support and debriefing for exposed personnel. [#17]
Security Officer (Site) 20 Site security for coastal facility, perimeter control and interdiction support. [#13]
Administrative Staff 8 Logistics, legal front maintenance, PR and accounting personnel. [#20, #28]
Site Director / Executive Staff 2 Site leadership and executive liaison for diplomatic/legal engagements. [#13, #30]
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide line-item ranges and program structure, enabling medium confidence; many estimates are order-of-magnitude ranges and several scenario costs are uncertain, so exact figures have moderate uncertainty.
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