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SCP-5224 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-5224
Expected annual
$1.9M
One-time setup
$2.2M
Annual recurring
$1.8M
Personnel
9
Up-front (one-time) facility, specialized containment and research setup costs are modest (~$2.25M), while annual operational and contingency reserves dominate ongoing costs (~$1.82M/yr) driven by security, specialized staff, ongoing research/monitoring, and large contingency funds for mass-manifestation events.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.2M
Mass Manifestation Contingency Initial $1.0M
[#29] Initial contingency seed for large-scale mass-manifestation incidents (recommended reserve).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $450K
[#18, #19] Initial lab buildout and program startup costs for suppression/disruption research and biological mechanism/deactivation studies.
Facilities $394K
[#1, #3, #4, #7, #8, #26] Site purchase/clearance, sealed terrarium/containment room, anechoic secondary layer, perimeter water-exclusion works, fencing/access control, and decon-station install; combined as structural and construction work.
Mass Disposal Contingency Initial Fund $200K
[#13] Initial one-time reserve to augment incineration/autoclave access and hazardous waste capacity for disposal in larger-than-baseline events.
Equipment $170K
[#5, #6, #11, #12, #20, #23, #24] HVAC/dehumidifiers/filtration, generator+UPS, acoustic/motion monitoring hardware, one-time culling kit, transport/relocation crate and secure vehicle kit, incident communications equipment, and on-site servers.
Surveys And Assessments $35K
[#2] Hydrological and geotechnical professional surveys and investigations to certify >100 m water buffer and advise drainage/impermeabilization.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.8M/yr
Staff Wages $540K/yr
[#9, #10, #12] 24/7 on-site security staffing (~4 guards) plus specialized containment scientists/animal handlers (~2) and rapid-response/culling team staffing.
Research And Monitoring $328K/yr
[#11, #18, #19, #24, #27, #28, #30] Ongoing research program budgets for suppression and mechanism studies, sensor data storage/maintenance, wastewater/stormwater testing, long-term environmental monitoring, and periodic external audits/oversight.
Mass Disposal Contingency Reserve $200K/yr
[#13] Annual reserve contribution to scale disposal capacity in case of larger events.
Ecological Remediation Reserve $200K/yr
[#17] Annual reserve for ecological remediation and mitigation (crop losses, pollinator remediation, pest control) for incidents.
Mass Manifestation Contingency Reserve $200K/yr
[#29] Ongoing annual reserve contribution toward large-scale mass-manifestation contingency (supplement to one-time seed fund).
Cover Story And Legal $120K/yr
[#15, #22] Legal, permitting, environmental compliance costs and insurance/liability premiums.
Public Cover And Compensation Reserve $100K/yr
[#16] Annual fund/reserve for PR, cover-up operations, and farmer compensation for small-to-moderate incidents.
Supplies And Consumables $37K/yr
[#14, #25, #26] PPE and consumables, routine animal-care consumables/inspection supplies, and decon consumables.
Facilities Maintenance $20K/yr
[#5, #6, #7, #8, #26] Maintenance for HVAC/dehumidifiers, generator fuel/maintenance, perimeter water-exclusion works, fencing repairs, and decon-station upkeep.
Land Lease $20K/yr
[#1] Lease alternative to land purchase (annual lease cost if site not purchased).
Mass Disposal Contract $15K/yr
[#13] Baseline hazardous biological waste disposal contract and fees.
Training And Drills $15K/yr
[#21] Annual training program, drills, simulation exercises and remediation following exercises.
Logistics And Transport $10K/yr
[#20] Vehicle/transport maintenance and logistics overhead for occasional secure moves and routine transport needs.
Incident Comm Activation Reserve $10K/yr
[#23] Budget to cover activation/staffing/callout costs for incident command center during events.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.8M/yr
89.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; containment intact and routine operations only.
no containment breach no croak near water routine operations
🚨 Minor Incident $1.9M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$50K vs baseline
Small-scale containment lapse or croak near a small puddle producing limited frogs requiring targeted culling, extra disposal and PR.
small accidental croak within range of limited water localized drainage failure limited security breach
🚨 Major Mass Manifestation $11.8M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
Catastrophic croak within 100 m of a medium/large water body causing rapid production of very large frog populations requiring mass culling, disposal, ecological remediation and compensation.
croak adjacent to large water volume structural failure/flooding deliberate tampering or major access breach
👥 Personnel 9 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 4 [#9] 24/7 coverage with 3–4 guards (shift coverage, backups).
Research Scientist / Herpetologist 2 [#10, #18, #19] Specialized containment team and research leads for suppression and biological studies.
Rapid Response / Culling Team Member 3 [#12] On-call amphibian culling team; staffing included in recurring wages.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes give detailed line items and ranges, enabling a structured estimate, but large uncertainties remain around the likelihood and scale of mass-manifestation events and the size of required contingency funds, so confidence is medium.
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