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SCP-5236 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-5236
Expected annual
$1.8M
One-time setup
$4.4M
Annual recurring
$1.7M
Personnel
6
Initial setup and containment retrofitting are the dominant one-time costs (structural enclosure, HVAC, servers, HPC), while recurring annual costs are driven by staff wages, HPC/compute and data storage, sacrificial instrumentation, and ongoing experimentation.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $4.4M
Decommissioning Contingency Fund $3.0M
[#17] Contingency reserve for worst-case containment repairs, remediation, reconstruction or escalation (#17).
Facilities $465K
[#1, #2, #3] Containment cell conversion/blast enclosure (#1), structural reinforcement and isolation work (#2), and initial HVAC isolation/filtration install (#3). Estimates combined from analyst ranges.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $400K
[#14] High-performance computing cluster / initial theoretical modeling stand-up and consultancy (#14).
Equipment $305K
[#4, #5, #7, #21] UPS/generator and transfer switch (#4), primary sensor bank/hardened sensors (#5), on-site secure servers/RAID hardware for data capture (#7), and one-time IT security hardware/infrastructure costs (#21).
Opportunity Cost Relocation $175K
[#22] One-time cost to relocate and re-equip displaced research/projects from Laboratory S19-12B (#22).
Cover Story Initial $55K
[#18] Initial cover-story / procurement obfuscation and public-facing costs to mask conversion and personnel changes (#18).
Forensic Consultation $30K
[#13] One-time forensic/pathology/legal consultation and secure staging setup for handling remains (#13).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.7M/yr
Staff Wages $635K/yr
[#9, #10, #11] Security guards (3 FTEs) and benefits (#9), dedicated research team (senior + junior) and benefits (#10), and 1 FTE maintenance/systems engineer including benefits (#11).
Hpc Compute And Licenses $355K/yr
[#8, #14] Recurring HPC/cloud compute time, software licenses, modeling compute costs and research scientist compute time (#8) and ongoing compute/maintenance costs related to the HPC program (#14 recurring portion).
Experimentation Budget $150K/yr
[#15] Instrumentation, sacrificial experiments, prototype manufacturing, and replacement parts for research into boundary dynamics (#15).
Cover Story And Legal $145K/yr
[#18, #20] Ongoing cover-story / PR/legal work to mask personnel changes and handle external inquiries (#18), plus retained counsel and legal contingencies (#20).
External Consultants $125K/yr
[#24] Occasional topologists, GR specialists, optical engineers, and visiting contractors (travel, honoraria, short contracts) (#24).
Data Storage Maintenance $65K/yr
[#7] Ongoing storage, tape rotation, off-site archival and backup costs for high-volume camera/audio + telemetry (#7).
Supplies And Consumables $62K/yr
[#5, #12, #23] Sensor calibrations and replacements (#5), PPE/biosurveillance consumables and lab tests (#12), and routine consumables for maintenance (filters, cables, spare parts) (#23).
Red Team Drills $40K/yr
[#16] Regular breach/containment drills, hazmat response training, and equipment for rapid lockdown (#16).
Amnestic Psych Care $40K/yr
[#19] Amnestic treatments and psychological care for witnesses and staff, plus related administrative costs (#19).
It Security Maintenance $35K/yr
[#21] Periodic IT security maintenance, audits, air-gapped systems upkeep, and access-control operations (#21 recurring).
Documentation And Admin $28K/yr
[#25] Secure records management, classification handling, clearance processing, and administrative overhead (#25).
Facilities Maintenance $20K/yr
[#3, #4] HVAC energy/maintenance and ability to isolate the room (#3) plus generator fuel/testing/maintenance (#4).
Sacrificial Instrument Replacement $18K/yr
[#6] Recurring budget for sacrificial/hardened optical heads and replaceable sensor mounts lost during experiments (#6).
Research And Monitoring $0/yr
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Logistics And Transport $0/yr
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⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.7M/yr
85.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; routine monitoring, research, upkeep, and scheduled replacements.
no_incident routine_operations
🚨 Minor Incident $1.9M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Localized instrument contact or limited containment equipment loss requiring emergency replacements, targeted repairs, and limited amnestic/legal response.
sensor_contact_with_boundary localized_instrument_loss limited_legal/amnestic_event
🚨 Major Breach $3.7M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Significant containment failure or destructive interaction leading to major reconstruction, extensive decontamination, large legal/amnestic operations, and drawing down contingency reserves.
structural_failure catastrophic_instrument_intrusion public_exposure
👥 Personnel 6 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 3 [#9] 24/7 physical security presence around the containment room; minimum 3 FTEs to cover shifts as noted.
Research Scientist 2 [#10] Dedicated research team (1 senior, 1 junior) for observation, experiment design, and liaison.
Engineer / Maintenance 1 [#11] On-call systems engineer for HVAC, electrical, sensor maintenance, and sacrificial hardware replacement.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide explicit ranges for nearly every line item enabling midpoint estimates, but uncertainty remains around frequency/severity of adverse events, research aggressiveness, and the preferred level of redundancy (which strongly affects one-time and recurring costs).
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