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SCP-5315 Location ~ medium confidence
SCP-5315
Expected annual
$2.7M
One-time setup
$5.0M
Annual recurring
$2.5M
Personnel
15
Initial containment requires a large up-front capital outlay (~$5.0M) driven by land control, R&D, and equipment; recurring annual costs are driven by staff wages, monitoring, and legal/cover operations (~$2.48M/year).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $5.0M
Land Purchase $1.5M
[#1] One-time purchase estimate (midpoint of $500k–$2.5M) for mountain and buffer acreage.
Containment R And D $1.2M
[#15] Exploratory R&D/containment program (multi-year initial program, midpoint used).
Equipment $785K
[#6, #7, #9, #11, #12, #14] Surveillance towers, UAV fleet, geophysical sensors, vehicles/outfitting, SAR equipment, and initial secure IT hardware (midrange sums).
Facilities $625K
[#2, #10] Fencing/gates/signage installation and field operations basecamp/buildout (estimated midrange of provided ranges).
Legal Settlement Contingency $300K
[#19] Contingency fund for occasional settlements or reimbursements (midpoint of $100k–$500k).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $275K
[#8] Custom cave/narrow-passage probes, tether reels, fiber-optic cameras and test rigs (initial buildout).
Community Goodwill Payments $100K
[#20] Initial goodwill/community payments (midpoint of $50k–$150k).
Environmental Studies Initial $100K
[#23] Initial EIA/permitting/endangered-species surveys (midrange).
Personnel Vetting Initial $68K
[#21] Initial background checks/security clearances for staff (~30 employees, midpoint).
Medical Initial Stock $10K
[#22] Initial first-aid/trauma stock.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.5M/yr
Staff Wages $1.3M/yr
[#4, #5, #13, #17] Field security staff (~6 × $50k + benefits/overtime), 2 security managers, scientific research staff (3 geologists + 2 data analysts), and 2 statisticians — salaries & benefits.
Research And Monitoring $320K/yr
[#6, #7, #8, #9, #13, #14, #17] Comms/data for surveillance, UAV maintenance & pilots, probe expendables, sensor maintenance, research travel/sampling, classified IT/cloud/storage and compute costs for statisticians/data analysis.
Cover Story And Legal $300K/yr
[#18, #19] Cover-story/information ops and public relations plus legal retainer for coordination with police/records management (midrange sums combined).
Capital Depreciation Reserve $150K/yr
[#25] Annual reserve (5–10% of initial capital) to replace infrastructure/vehicles/towers as they age.
Lost Equipment Replacement Fund $125K/yr
[#16] Annual fund for write-offs and replacements of lost drones/probes/instrumentation (midpoint).
Community Fund $75K/yr
[#20] Ongoing community/easement payments and small grants to local stakeholders.
Emergency Response $70K/yr
[#12] Medevac retainer (~$50k/year midpoint) and SAR refresher training (~$20k/year).
Facilities Maintenance $55K/yr
[#3, #10] Perimeter repair/sign replacements and basecamp utilities/maintenance (midrange sums).
Supplies And Consumables $50K/yr
[#22, #24] Medical resupply and miscellaneous operational overhead (office supplies, food/lodging for field teams, small tools).
Logistics And Transport $38K/yr
[#11] Vehicle fuel, maintenance, insurance for 4×4 trucks/ATVs/UTVs and trailers.
Personnel Vetting Renewals $20K/yr
[#21] Renewals, reinvestigations, periodic polygraphs and security training (midrange).
Environmental Monitoring $20K/yr
[#23] Ongoing monitoring/reporting required by environmental permits.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.5M/yr
68.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine operations, monitoring, and no major incidents.
no_major_incidents regular_sensor/field ops
🚨 Minor Incident $2.6M/yr
20.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline
Localized incident requiring extra SAR, temporary surge staffing, and equipment replacement beyond normal losses.
small_scale_rescue vandalism_or_major_equipment_loss
🚨 Major Breach $3.5M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Significant publicized incident or large-scale loss leading to major search operations, legal exposure, and settlement costs.
large_search_and_rescue media_attention_and_litigation
🚨 Research Scaleup $3.7M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$1.2M vs baseline
Decision/year to fund an aggressive R&D push or large-scale containment experiment requiring substantial additional capital.
funding_R&D_program accelerated_probe_development
👥 Personnel 15 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / Field Ranger 6 [#4] 24/7 field presence around approaches and trailheads; estimate based on 6 full-time field staff used in wage calculation.
Security Manager / Local Liaison 2 [#5] Managers to coordinate with local law enforcement and permits; costed as two positions.
Research Scientist (Geologist) 3 [#13] Geologists in the ongoing study team (part of the 3–5 research staff assumed).
Data Analyst / Research Assistant 2 [#13] Data analysts supporting pattern analysis and sensor data interpretation.
Statistician 2 [#17] 2 statisticians for Department of Statistics work (trend analysis and controls).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges, enabling a reasoned midrange estimate; however many items are range-based and several options (purchase vs easement, discretionary R&D) materially change totals, so confidence is moderate.
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