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SCP-5320 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-5320
Expected annual
$84.2M
One-time setup
$158.6M
Annual recurring
$83.2M
Personnel
65
One-time capital outlays dominated by optional ship purchases and contingency reserve (~$159M total one-time in the baseline capital plan); recurring annual costs are dominated by vessel charter/operations, staffing, and monitoring (~$83M/yr baseline).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $158.6M
Vessel Purchase $80.0M
[#3] Purchase of two DP-capable support vessels (capital purchase alternative to charter).
Contingency Reserve $50.0M
[#15] One-time reserve fund for large-scale emergency response, salvage, or rapid mobilization.
Equipment $18.2M
[#1, #6] Hadal-capable ROV/AUV fleet capital (8 units, redundancy) and one-time data/server hardware for archival.
Additional Node Capital $6.0M
[#20] Per-additional-monitoring-node one-time capital (extra ROV/communications/deployment hardware) - rule-of-thumb.
Sonar Deployment $3.0M
[#9] Deployment and calibration of passive/active sonar buoys and long-baseline acoustic network.
Facilities $600K
[#5] Secure remote monitoring center buildout and physical facility improvements.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $500K
[#10] Initial lab buildout and instrumentation to support controlled experiments and field-sample processing.
Gis System $300K
[#21] One-time purchase/licensing and setup of GIS/mapping and oceanographic modeling hardware/software.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $83.2M/yr
Logistics And Transport $45.0M/yr
[#3] Vessel chartering costs for rotating campaigns (baseline assumes chartering two DP-capable ships).
Contingency Reserve Replenish $10.0M/yr
[#15] Annual replenishment / reserve maintenance for the emergency response fund.
Per Additional Node Operating $8.0M/yr
[#20] Incremental recurring cost per added monitoring node (ROV + charter time + staff) as SCP grows.
Research And Monitoring $5.0M/yr
[#2, #6, #7, #10, #21] ROV mid-life replacement/upgrades budget, recurring data storage/bandwidth, satellite/telemetry costs, core R&D program and GIS/model maintenance.
Staff Wages $5.0M/yr
[#4, #5] Salaries for ship crews, ROV pilots/technicians, shore monitoring analysts, database engineers, and operations managers.
Cover Story And Legal $2.5M/yr
[#13] Ongoing cover-story expenses, legal, diplomatic, permits, and liaison costs in multiple jurisdictions.
Insurance $1.5M/yr
[#16] Commercial insurance premiums or equivalent self-insurance budgeting for ROV loss, vessel incidents, and liabilities.
Psychological Spillover Response $1.5M/yr
[#22] Public-health style interventions and targeted countermeasures if memetic leakage occurs.
Maintenance Contracts $1.2M/yr
[#8] Manufacturer maintenance contracts, spares stocking, and priority repair SLAs.
Facilities Maintenance $800K/yr
[#9, #21] Ongoing servicing of deployed sensor networks, facility upkeep, and GIS system maintenance.
Public Relations And Information Control $800K/yr
[#14] Social-media monitoring, takedown teams, seeded cover stories, and information-control operations.
Memetic Countermeasures $600K/yr
[#11] Memetic hazard training, counseling, pharmacological mitigation, and monitoring for personnel.
Security $600K/yr
[#12] Security staffing, secure access hardware, and rapid-response security teams for facilities and rendezvous points.
Environmental Compliance $400K/yr
[#17] Monitoring and mitigation for environmental impacts, regulatory compliance, and fines or fabricated paperwork for cover.
Training And Certifications $150K/yr
[#19] Offshore safety, DP familiarization, memetic-safety training, and simulation/course costs.
Supplies And Consumables $3K/yr
[#18] Snack-offering procurement, sealed vending-stock management, and small procedure audits.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $83.2M/yr
89.5% probability / year
Normal year with no major incidents; operations run with chartered vessels, routine maintenance, and steady monitoring.
routine_monitoring no_major_equipment_losses no_public_exposure
🚨 Minor Incident $89.2M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$6.0M vs baseline
Loss of one ROV / localized equipment failure requiring emergency salvage, replacement, and PR/legal response.
rov_loss small_salvage_operation localized_media_leak
🚨 Major Breach $133.2M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Significant containment event or public exposure requiring large-scale global mobilization, multiple vessels, and major contingency spending.
large_scale_mobilization significant_public_exposure multiple_asset_losses
🚨 Research Breakthrough Scale Up $97.2M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$14.0M vs baseline
Decision-year to expand monitoring coverage (add one or more nodes) following research findings — includes one-time capital and increased recurring ops.
strategic_scale_up new_detection_requirements funded expansion_decision
👥 Personnel 65 total
Role Count Notes
Ship Crew / Engineers 30 [#4] Captains, engineers, deckhands across rotating vessels.
ROV Pilot / Technician 12 [#1, #4] Shipboard and shore-based ROV pilots and maintenance technicians.
Research Scientist 6 [#10] Marine biologists, memeticologists, and modelers.
Analysts / Database Engineers 6 [#5, #6] Remote monitoring analysts and database/IT staff for feeds and archival systems.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#12] Onsite and covert security for facilities and vessel operations.
Administrative Staff / Operations Manager 4 [#4, #13] Logistics, cover-story coordination, and administrative support.
Medical Officer 1 [#11] Medical/psychological support for memetic effects and staff health monitoring.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based on analyst ranges and typical commercial/charter costs but key drivers (ROV loss rates, vessel charter variability, geopolitical/legal exposure, and growth rate of the anomaly) are uncertain, producing moderate confidence.
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