SCP-5331 — SCP-5331 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-5331 Keter-provisi ~ medium confidence

SCP-5331

Expected annual

$1.9M

One-time setup

$13.1M

Annual recurring

$1.6M

Personnel

One-time initial containment, evidence-seizure, forensic analysis, amnesticization, and diplomatic buy-in drive a large upfront cost (primarily diplomatic payouts and contingency reserves). Ongoing annual costs are dominated by research/monitoring, rapid-response standby, cover maintenance, and background vetting.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $13.1M

Long Range Contingency One Time $10.0M

[#22] Reserve for long-range retrieval contingency planning (interstellar retrieval missions / major escalation reserve).

Diplomatic Cooperation One Time $1.0M

[#5] Upfront diplomatic/sovereign cooperation & compensation budget to secure cooperation and reimburse institutions (initial negotiated payouts).

Contingency Reserve One Time $1.0M

[#15] Contingency reserve for accidental public disclosure, litigation, emergency indemnities and large diplomatic payouts (recommended reserve).

Witness Relocation One Time $200K

[#11] One-time witness relocation, new identities and resettlement services for multiple persons requiring permanent relocation.

Facilities $150K

[#10] Secure evidence/inventory facility (vaulted room, HVAC, access control, secure networking).

Institutional Amnestics One Time $140K

[#4] One-time targeted amnestic/identity operations for institutional actors (Arecibo, Cornell, external astronomers).

Equipment $120K

[#7, #16] Cyber-suppression setup, secure comms and hardened storage hardware, initial infosec engagement and related hardware; includes initial secure-equipment for cooperating observatory staff.

Initial Research And Lab Setup $120K

[#2] Forensic analysis and secure storage setup: digital forensics imaging, chain-of-custody workflows, specialist lab time, consumables and cold storage setup.

Amnesticization Field $100K

[#3] One-time amnesticization costs for local population (planning and executing cognitive dampening for ~20–60 targets).

Field Operation $80K

[#1] On-site field operation in Itanhaém: 6–10 person MTF deployment, travel, lodging, vehicle rental, local permits/contingencies for evidence seizure and scene processing.

Legal And Pr One Time $80K

[#6] Legal fees, negotiated retractions, PR/forgery and paperwork to create sanitized administrative files and cover narratives.

Training And Equipment Initial $40K

[#16] Initial training and equipment for cooperating observatory staff: secure data handling, hardened storage provision and initial training sessions.

Customs Shipping $20K

[#19] Customs/shipping/transport legalities for cross-border evidence handling and expedited fees.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.6M/yr

Research And Monitoring $350K/yr

[#8, #9] Telescope time, targeted observation windows, computational modeling, simulation compute, and associated research staff/processing costs.

Staff Wages $300K/yr

[#9] Core staff wages (research leads/analysts/administration) supporting monitoring and analysis tasks.

Rapid Response Standby $300K/yr

[#14] Emergency rapid-response capability in the Southern Hemisphere: on-call MTF, transport agreements, pre-positioned equipment and readiness.

Cover Story And Legal $150K/yr

[#6, #12, #5] Ongoing legal, PR, institutional cover costs and diplomatic maintenance (payments, negotiated retractions, fabricated records, and quiet patronage).

Public Research Sponsorship $100K/yr

[#21] Small-scale public-facing research sponsorships, dummy grants or fellowships to redirect academic attention.

Contingency Topup $100K/yr

[#15] Annual top-up to contingency reserve for unexpected payouts, litigation or diplomatic costs.

Background Vetting $60K/yr

[#13] Background vetting, periodic re-screening, polygraphs, and counterintelligence efforts for cooperating personnel.

Psychological Aftercare $60K/yr

[#17] Ongoing psychological aftercare, counseling, and monitoring for amnesticized/relocated persons.

Institutional Relocation Ongoing $50K/yr

[#4, #11] Ongoing support for relocated witnesses or institutional identity management (housing stipends, monitoring, administrative upkeep).

Data Archival $40K/yr

[#18] Secure archival infrastructure, offsite backups and compute/storage costs for sanitized and original datasets.

Supplies And Consumables $30K/yr

[#2, #3] Lab consumables for ongoing forensic work and medical/amnestic supplies for follow-ups.

Amnestic Followups $30K/yr

[#3] Recurring follow-up appointments, monitoring and small additional amnestic applications for previously treated targets.

Facilities Maintenance $25K/yr

[#10] Ongoing maintenance, HVAC, access control and security upkeep for secure evidence storage.

Logistics And Transport $25K/yr

[#14, #19] Routine shipping, transport agreements, and logistics support for cross-border movement and emergency deployments.

Cyber Monitoring $15K/yr

[#7] Ongoing cyber-suppression, open-source remediation, and monitoring for leaks.

Media Monitoring $10K/yr

[#20] Continuous media monitoring and rumor control (social listening and seeded narratives).

Training Maintenance $5K/yr

[#16] Ongoing maintenance training and minor equipment refreshes for cooperating observatory staff.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.6M/yr

85.5% probability / year

Normal year with routine monitoring, cover maintenance, and readiness costs but no public exposures or major incidents.

no_public_breach routine_monitoring ongoing_diplomatic_maintenance

🚨 Minor Incident $1.9M/yr

10.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline

Localized leak or small exposure requiring extra PR, a limited amnestic sweep and short-term diplomatic/field response.

local_leak limited_amnestics emergency_PR_response

🚨 Major Breach $3.6M/yr

3.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline

Significant public disclosure or litigation requiring large diplomatic payouts, expanded amnestic operations, and extended international coordination.

major_public_exposure international_litigation large_scale_amnestics

🚨 Political Exposure $6.7M/yr

1.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline

High-profile political or sovereign incident requiring multi-million-dollar payouts and negotiated cooperation changes.

sovereign_dispute public_scandal diplomatic_reparations

🚨 Retrieval Escalation $21.6M/yr

0.5% probability / year +$20.0M vs baseline

SCP becomes retrievable or mission proceeds, triggering major one-off mission costs (interstellar retrieval / large-scale scientific effort).

object_deceleration retrievability_confirmation major_international_mission

👥 Personnel 3 total

Role	Count	Notes
Research Scientist	2	Senior research staff whose salaries are reflected in staff_wages for ongoing analysis and monitoring. ([#9])
Administrative Staff	1	Admin/coordination support for legal/diplomatic tasks and vendor management. ([#6, #5])

📋 Confidence Notes

Estimates are medium confidence: many line items have wide published ranges (especially diplomatic payouts, contingency reserves, and retrieval costs). Probabilities for adverse scenarios are inferred subjectively from containment stability and historical breach likelihood.

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