SCP-5345 — SCP-5345 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-5345 Unknown ~ medium confidence

SCP-5345

Expected annual

$42.1M

One-time setup

$172.5M

Annual recurring

$40.2M

Personnel

One-time capital costs are dominated by covert vessel procurement and shore/base construction (~$172.5M total), while steady recurring operations (persistent patrols, intelligence, and staff) drive annual costs of roughly $40.2M per year; major diplomatic payouts or engineering works could raise one-time costs into the hundreds of millions.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $172.5M

Facilities $75.8M

[#5, #11, #21] Shore-base construction, secure vault/build-out, and optional coastal stabilization/seawalls (shore facility construction, vault climate/psi-dampening, coastal engineering).

Equipment $45.0M

[#2, #3, #6, #7, #10] Covert vessel acquisition/charter conversions, UAV purchases, island monitoring hardware deployment, ROV/AUV purchases, and specialized protective/decon equipment one-time procurement.

Diplomatic One Time $25.0M

[#14] One-time diplomatic/settlement payments (e.g., large DPRK-style packages) to secure deniability or strategic cooperation.

Deep Sea Emergency Retainer $10.0M

[#8] One-time retainer / contingency fund for salvage/containment contracts or acquisition of specialized submersibles as a capital contingency.

Insurance Contingency Fund One Time $10.0M

[#22] One-time contingency fund / capital reserve for large accidental-discovery compensations or catastrophic claims.

Image Forgery Development $4.0M

[#13] One-time development of image-forgery and cyber infrastructure to support long-term imagery alteration and distribution.

Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.5M

[#7, #9, #20] Initial lab buildout and scientific instrumentation for geotechnical modeling, bathymetry analysis, and thaumaturgical research (lab benches, analysis instruments, initial expendables).

Long Term Study One Time $800K

[#20] One-time detailed geotechnical study and initial modeling to establish multi-decade collapse projections.

Intel Placement One Time $400K

[#12] One-time placement/bribe costs for initial embedding of operatives in space agencies/commercial imagery providers.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $40.2M/yr

Staff Wages $8.9M/yr

[#9, #12, #18, #19] Salaries and benefits for researchers/occult specialists, embedded intelligence technical staff, shore and vessel security teams, and medical/psych support.

Offshore Patrol Vessel Operations $8.2M/yr

[#1] Continuous maritime presence (3 OPVs) operating costs (crew, maintenance, sensors, small-boat capability) for maintaining a 5 km exclusion perimeter.

Facilities Maintenance $4.0M/yr

[#5] Operations, utilities, berthing, communications, base staffing and ongoing physical maintenance for a covert forward shore facility.

Diplomatic Cover Payments $3.0M/yr

[#14] Annual diplomatic/cover payments to manage denial and coordinate with regional governments and regulators.

Program Overhead Reserve $3.0M/yr

[#25] Multi-decade program overhead, replacement asset budgeting and contingency reserve for long-term program continuity.

Aviation Drone Ops $2.5M/yr

[#3] Recurring leasing/ops and maintenance for manned maritime-patrol sorties and long-endurance UAV operations.

Fuel And Consumables $2.0M/yr

[#4] Fuel, lubricants, spare parts for sea/air assets aggregated for patrol intensity.

Emergency Response Reserve $2.0M/yr

[#8] Annual reserve funding for on-call salvage/containment response and retained emergency contractors.

Cyber It Maintenance $1.5M/yr

[#13] Ongoing maintenance and ops for image-forgery and cyber/IT infrastructure used to alter public satellite/commercial imagery pipelines.

Insurance Liability Reserve $1.0M/yr

[#22] Annual insurance/liability reserve and clandestine compensation fund for accidental discoveries or civilian claims.

Local Humint $800K/yr

[#17] HUMINT, informants, and local counter-surveillance of fishermen, mariners, and port communities.

Cover Story And Legal $700K/yr

[#16, #23] Legal counsel, PR/misinformation campaigns, evidence sanitization and publication suppression operations.

Periodic Surveying $650K/yr

[#7] Annual ship time / contract survey budgets (multibeam sonar, ROV/AUV survey runs) and mapping operations.

Research And Monitoring $600K/yr

[#6, #7, #20] Ongoing telemetry, data processing, geotechnical monitoring, modeling updates and long-term scientific monitoring budgets.

Logistics And Transport $500K/yr

[#15] Administrative rerouting costs, notices to mariners, small subsidies and compensation for rerouting or AIS suppression coordination.

Training And Drills $350K/yr

[#24] Regular maritime interdiction, anomalous event response, ROV/recovery and thaumaturgic containment exercises.

Monitoring Maintenance $300K/yr

[#6] Ongoing communications, hardening, and maintenance costs for remote cameras, hydrophones, and AIS intercept equipment.

Supplies And Consumables $125K/yr

[#10] Consumables for decontamination and protective equipment maintenance; replacement suits and mobile decon consumables.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $40.2M/yr

84.5% probability / year

Normal year with persistent patrols, monitoring, intelligence suppression and no major incidents.

no_breach steady_ops ongoing_intel_suppression

🚨 Minor Incident $42.2M/yr

10.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline

Localized operational incident (vessel collision, lost UAV/ROV, small release) requiring repairs, targeted recoveries and PR/legal response.

vessel_damage equipment_loss localized_release

🚨 Major Breach $65.2M/yr

2.0% probability / year +$25.0M vs baseline

Significant containment breach or loss of an OPV, requiring large recovery, replacement assets, broad diplomatic mitigation and increased operational tempo.

vessel_loss significant_anomalous_release international_incident

🚨 Political Exposure $55.2M/yr

3.0% probability / year +$15.0M vs baseline

Leak or political exposure forces major cover-story payments, expanded litigation and accelerated suppression efforts.

public_leak satellite_imagery_exposure diplomatic_leverage

🚨 Catastrophic Collapse $190.2M/yr

0.5% probability / year +$150.0M vs baseline

Partial or complete collapse of the island or large thaumaturgic event requiring major salvage, emergency engineering, mass evacuations and multi-year response.

island_collapse large_sigil_activation mass_anomalous_release

👥 Personnel 66 total

Role	Count	Notes
Research Scientist / Occult Specialists	12	[#9] Archaeologists, thaumaturgists, physicists, linguists and psychometricians supporting on-site and shore research.
Security Officer / MTF Agent	40	[#18] Shore and sea armed response teams, boarding teams and quick reaction forces.
Intelligence Operative / Embedded Agent	4	[#12] Embedded operatives/technical assets in space agencies / commercial imagery providers for imagery suppression and metadata manipulation.
Medical Officer	4	[#19] Field medics and trauma psychologists for personnel exposed to anomalous phenomena.
Administrative Staff	6	[#25] Program admin, logistics coordination, legal/PR liaisons and site management for multi-decade program overhead.

📋 Confidence Notes

Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges, enabling a mid-confidence estimate; significant uncertainty remains due to diplomatic unpredictability, covert intel costs variability, and the optional high-cost engineering choices which could shift totals by hundreds of millions.

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