SCP-5407 — SCP-5407 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-5407 Unknown ~ medium confidence

SCP-5407

Expected annual

$10.6M

One-time setup

$5.5M

Annual recurring

$9.9M

Personnel

Initial one-time containment, specialized equipment, and fleet acquisition are the primary capital drivers (~$5.55M). Annual operating costs are dominated by MTF sustainment, intelligence/research programs, and ongoing security/medical management resulting in roughly $9.86M/yr baseline.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $5.5M

Equipment $2.4M

[#2, #4, #16, #18, #19, #23] ULT freezers and sample packaging (~$20k), security systems install (~$100k), fleet purchase (armored van/SUVs/helicopter consolidation ~$2,000,000), initial PPE kits (~$25k), evidence systems (~$50k), hardened IT systems (~$250k).

Contingency Reserve Fund $2.0M

[#17] One-time contingency / reserve allocation for collateral damage, settlements and indemnities (baseline reserve funding).

Facilities $600K

[#1] Vault retrofit (BSL-3 upgrades, HVAC/HEPA, negative pressure, alarms, redundant power and access controls).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $500K

[#9] Forensic & analytical instrumentation, biosafety cabinets and lab build-out for allowed characterization (mass specs, HPLC, GC-MS, specimen prep).

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $9.9M/yr

Research And Monitoring $3.2M/yr

[#8, #10, #21, #24] Intelligence/surveillance & informant network (~$1.0M/yr), active research/toxicology program (~$1.5M/yr), anthropological/GoI infiltration (~$0.5M/yr), ongoing illicit-market monitoring (~$0.2M/yr).

Staff Wages $2.9M/yr

[#3, #6] 24/7 armed security staffing (12 guards incl. training/equipment ≈ $770k/yr) plus MTF Gamma-44 salaries (~30 personnel × $70k ≈ $2.1M/yr).

Logistics And Transport $1.4M/yr

[#5, #7, #16] Secure per-shipment transport (assumed ~$300k/yr baseline), per-raid operational costs (avg ~$75k/raid; baseline assumed operations budget ~$750k/yr), fleet maintenance/fuel/insurance (~$300k/yr).

Mtf Operations And Equipment $500K/yr

[#6] MTF vehicles/maintenance, equipment, ammunition and routine training (~$300k + ~$500k itemized; equipment/training portion allocated here).

Cover Story And Legal $450K/yr

[#14, #15] Legal/cover-up, interagency liaison and strategic communications/misinformation budget combined (~$300k + $150k/yr).

Controlled Supply Management $365K/yr

[#13] Secure dosing/production and administration to prevent withdrawal deaths (baseline for ~50 maintained subjects at ~$7,300/yr each).

Medical Care And Quarantine $300K/yr

[#12] Medical quarantine, isolation ward staffing and palliative care baseline (does not include large acute hospitalization events).

Replacement And Incident Reserve $200K/yr

[#22] Annual reserve for equipment replacement, contamination incidents and personnel recovery (~$200k/yr baseline).

Contingency Fund Replenishment $200K/yr

[#17] Annual replenishment/top-up for contingency reserve fund drawn down by incidents (planning replenishment).

Compliance And Oversight $125K/yr

[#20] Containment policy compliance, inspections, audits and ethics review staffing (~$50k–$200k/yr).

It Security Operations $100K/yr

[#23] Secure communications, encrypted networks and classified IT ops (~$75k–$150k/yr).

Supplies And Consumables $64K/yr

[#11, #18, #2] Routine biohazard waste disposal (~$50k/yr), PPE replenishment/training (~$10k/yr), ULT freezer electricity/maintenance (~$4k/yr).

Facilities Maintenance $50K/yr

[#1, #4] Ongoing facility upkeep including HVAC/HEPA filter servicing, environmental monitoring maintenance and security system monitoring (~$35k of monitoring included here).

Archival And Overhead $50K/yr

[#25] Long-term archival storage of samples/records and proportional facility overhead allocation (~$20k–$100k/yr).

Evidence Management And Archival $35K/yr

[#19] Personnel, archival storage and tamper-proof evidence handling (~$20k–$50k/yr; mid used).

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $9.9M/yr

80.0% probability / year

Normal year with routine containment, MTF operations, research, intelligence, and periodic minor transport/raid activity; no major contamination or public exposure.

routine_maintenance scheduled_raids_and_transports ongoing_research_and_intel

🚨 Minor Incident $10.9M/yr

15.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline

Localized contamination or single-site major cleanup requiring contractor remediation and short-term acute medical treatment and legal responses.

localized_contamination single_major_cleanup short_term_medical_surge

🚨 Major Breach $21.9M/yr

5.0% probability / year +$12.0M vs baseline

Widespread exposure or public outbreak, large casualty counts, mass hospitalizations, major legal settlements and large-scale replenishment of contingency funds and emergency operations.

mass_exposure public_outbreak large_legal_settlements

👥 Personnel 42 total

Role	Count	Notes
Mobile Task Force Agent / MTF Member	30	[#6] MTF Gamma-44 detachment (~30 personnel) — salaries included in staff_wages.
Security Officer / Guard	12	[#3] 24/7 armed guard staffing for Locker-47 (12 guards to cover rotations) — compensation and training included in staff_wages.

📋 Confidence Notes

Many line items include analyst estimates and reasonable midpoints were used; SCP is anomalous and incident severity/frequency are uncertain, so point estimates have moderate uncertainty.

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