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SCP-5538 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-5538
Expected annual
$3.1M
One-time setup
$7.7M
Annual recurring
$2.9M
Personnel
14
One-time setup is dominated by property acquisition, contingency reserves and optional scale-up construction (~$7.74M total); recurring annual operations are driven by staff wages and MTF readiness (~$2.92M/yr). Main cost drivers are staffing, specialized readiness, and any decision to scale experiments requiring new construction.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $7.7M
Scale Up Special Facility $5.0M
[#30] Optional one-time cost for purpose-built containment facility if active experiment path (scale-up) is chosen (2M–20M range; mid-range used here).
Facilities $1.4M
[#1, #3, #4, #5, #14, #15, #21] Property acquisition, hazardous-material abatement, structural stabilization/repairs, perimeter hardware, HVAC upgrade, generator/ATS install, and containment lockdown hardware (sally-ports/locks).
Contingency Reserve $500K
[#27] Short-notice reserve for emergency evacuations, rapid reinforcement, replacement equipment, or additional MTF activation.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $375K
[#11, #12, #16, #25, #26] 3D-scanning/photogrammetry equipment and contracted capture, secure server/setup for long-term data, decontamination/medical setup, initial conservation/archeological sampling, and archival/forensic investigation setup.
Equipment $290K
[#6, #7, #13, #20] CCTV network and installation, NVR/video hardware, controlled-manipulation robotics/remote-handling gear, and security communications hardware.
Transport Fleet $120K
[#23] Purchase of 2–4 site vehicles for patrols/supplies/staff transport (mid-range estimate).
Legal And Cover Operations $75K
[#2] Real estate closing costs, covert record alteration, initial payments to local officials/contractors to sanitize records and establish cover story.
Hazardous Waste Disposal $25K
[#22] One-time contracted disposal costs from abatement and initial experimental byproducts.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.9M/yr
Staff Wages $1.3M/yr
[#8, #10] Security (7 staff incl. supervisor) and on-site research team (6–10 staff) salaries and benefits; combined security + research personnel wages/benefits.
Mtf Readiness $1.0M/yr
[#9] Specialized anomalous-response team readiness: training cycles, equipment, vehicles, ammunition, PPE, and readiness exercises.
Research And Monitoring $175K/yr
[#24] Active experimental budget and research program costs (controlled trials, subject compensation, contracted services) on an annual basis.
Preservation Path Incremental $100K/yr
[#30] If Foundation chooses preservation/monitoring path, incremental preservation and monitoring costs (mid-range of $50k–$200k/yr).
Medical Contracts $70K/yr
[#16] Recurring medical staff coverage, emergency response agreements, and post-exposure care for personnel/subjects.
Facilities Maintenance $40K/yr
[#14, #28] Ongoing energy/maintenance associated with HVAC/environmental controls and general property carrying costs (taxes, utilities, routine insurance as applicable).
Supplies And Consumables $35K/yr
[#17] PPE, consumables, HEPA cartridges, batteries, swabs, archival handling materials.
Logistics And Transport $35K/yr
[#23] Vehicle operating costs: fuel, maintenance, covert insurance and depreciation.
Video And Data Storage $35K/yr
[#7, #12] Ongoing high-resolution video and long-term data storage, secure replication, and IT administration.
Personnel Psych Evaluation $35K/yr
[#19] Baseline and periodic psychological screening, counseling, and post-incident care for staff exposed to the site.
Cover Story And Legal $25K/yr
[#2, #29] Ongoing legal maintenance, periodic payments, and public-relations/local-government liaison for cover-story upkeep.
Pest Control $18K/yr
[#18] Regular pest control, vermin exclusion, and grounds maintenance to protect dust impressions and maintain cover.
Backup Power Maintenance $15K/yr
[#15] Fuel resupply, generator maintenance, and testing for on-site backup power.
Containment Maintenance $10K/yr
[#21] Maintenance of remote lockdown systems, reinforced bulkheads, and automated lock controls.
Hazardous Waste Disposal $10K/yr
[#22] Annual contract costs for disposal of experimental/biological/chemical waste streams.
Security Communications $5K/yr
[#20] Service, encryption licenses, and replacements for radios/intercom systems.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.9M/yr
92.0% probability / year
Normal uneventful year: routine operations, research at baseline pace, no breaches or major incidents.
regular operations scheduled experiments no incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $3.2M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$250K vs baseline
Localized incident requiring limited MTF activation, repairs, short disruption to research and temporary increased medical/support costs.
small containment breach localized structural or equipment damage
🚨 Major Breach $4.4M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Significant containment compromise requiring full MTF deployment, evacuation/repair, evidence sanitization and extended operational surge.
major breach structural collapse or public exposure
🚨 Research Scaleup $8.4M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$5.5M vs baseline
Decision/year in which Foundation pursues active large-scale experiments requiring construction of a purpose-built facility and rapid scale-up of operations.
policy decision to assemble/scale experiments funding and authorization for new facility
👥 Personnel 14 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 7 [#8] Two guards per shift across three shifts plus one site supervisor; headcount reflects on-site security staffing.
Research Scientist 3 [#10] Scientists on the on-site research team (2–4 expected).
Conservator / Archaeologist 1 [#10, #25] Conservation and archeological treatment staff for labels and placards.
Clinical Psychologist 1 [#10, #19] On-site clinical psychologist for staff monitoring and subject oversight.
Technician 2 [#10, #11] Technical staff for scanning, equipment operation, sample handling, and routine maintenance.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges allowing mid-range estimates, but many items (property price, contamination extent, policy decisions, and anomalous outcomes) are highly uncertain, so confidence is medium.
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