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SCP-5544 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-5544
Expected annual
$49K
One-time setup
$353K
Annual recurring
$48K
Personnel
5
One-time sunk historical prevention costs are the largest single expense (~$300k); ongoing annual operations are modest (~$48k/yr) driven by mental-health services, productivity loss, legal/cover-story costs, and a contingency buffer.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $353K
Historical Sunk Prevention Costs $300K
[#16] Sunk costs from five years of failed prevention/R&D/containment attempts (documented as historical).
Escalation Reserve $25K
[#15] Recommended one-time reserve for escalation (hospitalization, long-term disability, emergency replacement) kept on books.
Recruitment Replacement $15K
[#21] One-time contingency cost for recruiting and training a replacement researcher if Parker cannot continue.
Facilities $6K
[#6, #18] Physical retrofit for safe access (ramp/handholds/insulated liner/warming tent) and low-impact hardening/fencing/signage; working estimate uses upper-bound figures.
Equipment $4K
[#5] CCTV/recording installation for dumpster area (camera(s), secure recording hardware, redundancy).
Sop Development And Initial Training $2K
[#17] One-time SOP development and initial training session for security and psychology staff.
Archival Cold Storage Init $1K
[#20] One-time initialization of secure cold/air-gapped archival storage (tape/offline system).
Medical Kits Setup $500
[#3] Initial purchase of first-aid kits, PPE, and setup of on-site emergency supplies/training materials (one-time setup).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $48K/yr
Cover Story And Legal $10K/yr
[#13] Legal retainer, FOIA mitigation, cover-story and PR costs to manage external inquiries and record-sealing.
Productivity Loss $10K/yr
[#8] Researcher downtime and lost productivity coverage (cover duties, temporary coverage, reduced output) conservative working estimate.
Contingency Buffer $8K/yr
[#24] Recommended contingency buffer (20% of recurring subtotal before buffer) to cover uncertainty and potential escalation; computed as 20% of recurring subtotal (~$7,960).
Liability Reserve $5K/yr
[#14] Annual self-insurance/reserve or equivalent insurance premium for potential claims or repeated exposure incidents.
Mental Health Services $4K/yr
[#2, #9] Immediate post-event psychological evaluation + short-term follow-up (~$1,900) and ongoing occupational mental-health monitoring/program allocation (~$2,000/yr).
Research And Monitoring $3K/yr
[#11, #12] Data storage/transcription/analysis and analyst hours to review footage/tests (~$750) plus research staff monitoring/documentation time (~$2,000/yr).
Staff Wages $2K/yr
[#1] Annual on-site staffing for the event (security officer + psychologist holiday/overtime presence for ~4 hours on Dec 26; includes scheduling/admin overhead).
Facilities Maintenance $1K/yr
[#4, #6, #18] Dumpster cleaning and sanitation, periodic minor repairs to dumpster/lid mechanisms (~$300), averaged larger repairs (~$500/yr), plus maintenance/replacement for physical retrofit and fencing upkeep (~$200 total).
Administrative Overhead $1K/yr
[#10] Scheduling, incident paperwork, HR time, security logs, archival of interviews and incident administration.
Ethics Oversight $1K/yr
[#19] Regular ethics board oversight and internal review costs.
Compliance Auditing $1K/yr
[#22] Annual compliance and security auditing to ensure procedures are followed safely and legally.
Miscellaneous Overhead $750/yr
[#23] Miscellaneous small items, consumables, vehicle fuel for escort, and minor uncategorized repairs.
Surveillance Maintenance $500/yr
[#5] Annual maintenance for CCTV, lighting, motion sensors and secure storage costs for recorded footage.
Medical Emergency Preparedness $300/yr
[#3] Consumables & annual training for recovery procedures and first-aid; ambulance call-out contingency budgeted separately as incident cost.
Training Refreshers $300/yr
[#17] Annual refresher training for security and psychology staff.
Supplies And Consumables $200/yr
[#7] Protective clothing and consumables (blankets, thermal blankets, gloves, antiseptics, masks, disposable coveralls).
Archival Storage Maintenance $200/yr
[#20] Ongoing maintenance and storage costs for cold/air-gapped archival media.
Logistics And Transport $0/yr
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⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $48K/yr
94.0% probability / year
Normal year: annual event occurs, standard staffing and monitoring, no escalations or major incidents.
annual_dumpster_event routine_post-event_evaluation
🚨 Minor Incident $56K/yr
5.0% probability / year +$8K vs baseline
Event requires ambulance call-out and short inpatient observation or increased short-term clinical care and additional cleaning/repairs.
ambulance_call_out short_hospital_observation extra_cleaning_and_minor_repairs
🚨 Major Escalation $123K/yr
1.0% probability / year +$75K vs baseline
Serious escalation: hospitalization, extended inpatient psychiatric care, long-term disability payout or legal settlement and replacement hiring.
inpatient_psychiatric_hospitalization long_term_disability_or_large_legal_settlement replacement_recruitment_and_training
👥 Personnel 5 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 1 [#1] On-site holiday/escort presence for the annual event (overtime/holiday coverage).
Psychologist / Medical Officer 1 [#1, #2, #9] On-site psychologist for event recovery, immediate evaluations, and ongoing mental-health monitoring.
Research Scientist 1 [#8, #12] Primary researcher (Z. Parker) and minimal investigative/monitoring research staff time allocated (~20–40 hrs/yr).
Administrative Staff 1 [#10, #22] Scheduling, incident paperwork, HR, compliance and audit coordination.
Engineer / Maintenance 1 [#4, #5, #6, #18] Maintenance and repairs for dumpster, CCTV, physical retrofits, and site upkeep.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst-provided line-item estimates are detailed for recurring operations, giving moderate confidence; large uncertainty remains around historical sunk valuation and low-probability high-cost escalations, so figures are conservative working estimates.
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