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SCP-5618 Unknown ? low confidence
SCP-5618
Expected annual
$282.4M
One-time setup
$430.4M
Annual recurring
$268.9M
Personnel
200
One-time preparedness and buildout costs are approximately $430M driven by research program setup, vault/archival construction, and contingency reserves; recurring annual costs are approximately $269M driven by ongoing readiness, staff wages, decommissioning task forces, and large opportunity/disruption costs.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $430.4M
Initial Research And Lab Setup $141.8M
[#6, #11, #4, #23] Emergency temporal research initial program (#6), high-precision sensing arrays (#11), mass psychological assessment surge (#4), forensic/archival survivability testing labs (#23).
Contingency Reserve $100.0M
[#18] One-time contingency/reserve fund for catastrophic asset loss and unbudgeted emergency operations (#18).
Facilities $77.5M
[#8, #9, #10] Archival vault construction (#8), hardened artifact vault cluster (#9), and multi-site power/fuel setup (#10).
Equipment $55.8M
[#2, #13, #19, #15, #14] Hardened communications procurement/deployment (#2), secure transport acquisition (#13), cryptographic escrow hardware (#19), RAISA initial systems (#15), medical/field-hospital setup equipment (#14).
Personnel Termination Processing $30.0M
[#5] One-time processing, legal, forensic, disposal, and cover-up costs associated with large-scale personnel terminations (#5).
Public Exposure Remediation $25.0M
[#24] One-time public exposure remediation and law enforcement influence operations when needed (#24).
Personnel Protection For Witness $300K
[#20] One-time protective detail and logistics for mandated witnesses (#20).
Existential Risk Premium $0
[#27] Existential/unquantifiable risk premium: not meaningfully quantifiable and therefore not assigned a dollar estimate (#27).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $268.9M/yr
Opportunity Costs $100.0M/yr
[#25] Conservative annualized estimate of paused projects, lost IP, and program disruption during major Class-CK events; highly uncertain (#25).
Full Site Lockdown Operations $50.0M/yr
[#3] Budgeted annual fund to support potential extended full-site lockdowns (life support, hazard pay, lodging, overtime) (#3).
Decommissioning Task Force $30.0M/yr
[#7, #21] Standing budget for anomaly decommissioning operations and mobile containment/neutralization (per-operation budget and program reserve) (#7, #21).
Emergency Research Program $20.0M/yr
[#6] Sustained emergency research program (temporal mechanics/timeline stability) ongoing budget (#6).
Long Term Survivor Support $20.0M/yr
[#26] Ongoing survivor support, pensions, disability, and reparations if large-scale terminations or long confinement occur (#26).
Staff Wages $15.0M/yr
[#12] Increased security personnel and associated wages/benefits for additional guards/readiness (#12).
Cover Story And Legal $10.0M/yr
[#16] Legal counsel, intelligence, and public-facing cover operations to maintain the Veil and liaise with partners (#16).
Logistics And Transport $9.0M/yr
[#10, #13] Ongoing fuel replacement and microgrid ops (#10) plus secure transport/aircraft operations and maintenance (#13).
Emergency Bunker Activation $5.0M/yr
[#1] Annual allocation to cover occasional activation costs for O5/executive bunker operations (staffing, security, classified communications, perishable supplies) (#1).
International Coordination $3.0M/yr
[#17] Costs for Multi-Foundation Pact coordination, liaisons, and classified meetings (#17).
Research And Monitoring $2.2M/yr
[#11, #15, #19] Ongoing sensor ops and compute for high-precision temporal monitoring (#11), RAISA staffing/ops (#15), and cryptographic escrow operations (#19).
Facilities Maintenance $1.9M/yr
[#2, #8, #9] Annual maintenance for hardened communications (#2), archival vault maintenance (#8), and vault environmental systems (#9).
Supplies And Consumables $1.5M/yr
[#14] Medical and trauma consumables and sustainment for response hubs (#14).
Emergency Drills $1.2M/yr
[#22] Annual enterprise-level drills, tabletop exercises, and training for timeline/CK events (#22).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $268.9M/yr
74.0% probability / year
Normal year with no major incidents; routine readiness and standing program costs only.
no_major_breaches routine_operations periodic_training_drills
🚨 Minor Incident $273.9M/yr
20.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Localized containment or persistence incident requiring decommissioning ops and limited lockdown measures.
localized_breach isolated_anomaly_persistence
🚨 Major Breach $468.9M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$200.0M vs baseline
Widespread multi-site containment failures or sustained public exposure requiring full-site lockdowns, large legal/cover campaigns, and major logistics operations.
multi-site_lockdown widespread_containment_failure significant_public_leak
🚨 Catastrophic Timeline Event $518.9M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$250.0M vs baseline
Class-CK / timeline-erasure-level event that forces major one-time expenditures for emergency research, termination processing, exposure remediation, and use of contingency reserves.
imminent_timeline_restoration organization-wide_Class-CK_event
👥 Personnel 200 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 200 [#12] Additional security personnel count and associated wages reflected in staff_wages recurring budget (#12).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are low-confidence because the scenario is theoretical and many items are wide-range, event-driven, or existentially unquantifiable; analyst notes provide ranges rather than firm bills, and some costs (e.g., 'existential premium', opportunity costs after timeline events) cannot be precisely monetized.
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