SCP-5625 Unknown ? low confidence
SCP-5625
Expected annual
$22.0M
One-time setup
$65.1M
Annual recurring
$20.6M
Personnel
85
Upfront one-time buildout and reserves dominate (BSL retrofit, isolation ward, long-term disability and contingency reserves); major recurring drivers are testing throughput, clinical/security staffing and ongoing research/monitoring (~$20.6M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $65.1M
Community Outbreak Contingency Reserve $25.0M
[#26] High-level contingency reserve for escalation to community-wide outbreak (mass prophylaxis, field hospitals, large-scale logistics).
Disability Compensation Reserve $9.3M
[#16] Reserve for lifetime disability/compensation for currently affected personnel (187 cases @ ~$50k average).
Isolation Ward 200 Bed $8.0M
[#2] Permanent 200-bed negative-pressure isolation ward retrofit (sealed HVAC, anterooms, medical gas, telemetry, donning/doffing spaces).
Clinical Trials Completion $5.0M
[#7] Completion/expansion of Phase III trials and associated monitoring/CRO costs.
Insurance Reserve $5.0M
[#18] Insurance/liability reserve to cover unexpected claims and emergency procurement spikes.
Facilities $4.0M
[#1] BSL-3 laboratory retrofit chosen as baseline (structural/negative-pressure upgrade, HEPA systems, anterooms). BSL-4 conversion deferred to high-cost scenario.
Quarantine Support Stockpile $2.0M
[#20] Stockpile fund for quarantine support (meals, linen, pharmaceuticals, mental-health resources) and rotation buffer.
Antiviral Manufacturing Setup $1.5M
[#6] Small-scale contract manufacturing set-up for antiviral regimen (formulation, packaging, cold-chain prep).
Legal Pr Initial $1.5M
[#17] Initial legal/PR/cover-up and settlement reserve to establish plausible-denial strategies.
Research Program Initial $1.5M
[#19] Initial investment in basic/translational research (genomics, animal models setup, sequencing).
Equipment $575K
[#3, #10, #23] Initial PPE capital (PAPRs, suits, filters) and replacement stock (~$350k), on-site autoclave purchase (~$125k) and cryostorage/freezers & alarms (~$100k).
Mobile Isolation And Hazmat Teams $400K
[#22] Mobile isolation unit purchase and hazmat team initial equipment/vehicle (~one team + unit).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $300K
[#4] Diagnostic assay development and validation (assay design, automation setup, controls, validation paperwork).
Backup Generator Installation $300K
[#14] Backup generator installation for containment HVAC fail-safes.
Secure Transport Vehicles $200K
[#12] Specialized transport vehicles and containment kit purchase for secure sample/antiviral transport.
Initial Reagent Stockpile $200K
[#13] Initial stockpile of high-throughput testing consumables and reagents to buffer shortages.
Training Program Setup $200K
[#21] Initial training and simulation program development (clinical, lab, security SOPs).
Contact Tracing Software $100K
[#11] Secure case-management software/platform setup for contact-tracing (initial licensing/customization).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $20.6M/yr
Research And Monitoring $8.9M/yr
[#4, #5, #19, #23, #24] Routine mass testing (~5,000 tests/week at $30/test → ~$7.8M/yr), assay per-test consumables/QC, ongoing translational research program (~$600k/yr), cryostorage monitoring/service (~$35k/yr), and epidemiological surveillance/outreach to external clinics (~$500k/yr).
Staff Wages $6.4M/yr
[#8, #9, #11] Clinical staff (physicians, RNs, allied clinicians) ~$3.5M/yr; security staffing ~$1.7M/yr; contact-tracing salaries ~$1.2M/yr.
Long Term Care $1.0M/yr
[#16] Ongoing cognitive rehabilitation, occupational therapy and disability support for affected personnel.
Lost Productivity And Disruption $1.0M/yr
[#25] Ongoing buffer for lost productivity, temporary staffing, overtime and backlog mitigation (short-term reserve averaged over time).
Facilities Maintenance $865K/yr
[#10, #14, #15] Biohazard disposal contracts (~$300k/yr), incremental HVAC/electricity and containment energy premium (~$250k/yr), generator fuel/maintenance (~$65k/yr), plus routine HEPA/filter maintenance and validations (~$250k/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $800K/yr
[#3, #13] Recurring PPE consumables and filter replacements (~$200k/yr) and ongoing laboratory consumables/reagents (~$600k/yr depending on volume).
Cover Story And Legal $500K/yr
[#17] Ongoing PR/legal monitoring, counsel retainers and small settlement/reserve spending for cover operations.
Antiviral Procurement $500K/yr
[#6] Recurring procurement of antiviral courses (~1,000 courses @ ~$500/course conservative planning).
Logistics And Transport $275K/yr
[#11, #12] Field/device costs for tracers (~$100k/yr) and secure transport operating costs (drivers, fuel, maintenance) (~$175k/yr).
Training And Drills $100K/yr
[#21] Annual refresher training, simulation exercises and SOP updates.
Mobile Response Readiness $100K/yr
[#22] Ongoing readiness for mobile isolation units and hazmat teams (maintenance, consumables, refreshers).
Quarantine Support Operational $100K/yr
[#20] Ongoing rotation/restocking of quarantine support supplies and small operational costs to maintain readiness.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $20.6M/yr
88.0% probability / year
Normal year with containment maintained; recurring operations only.
no_major_incident steady_testing_and_care
🚨 Minor Incident $24.6M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$4.0M vs baseline
Localized surge/outbreak at Site-66 requiring surge testing, temporary expansion of isolation capacity and overtime.
localized_outbreak testing_surge temporary_quarantine_expansion
🚨 Major Breach $70.6M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Containment failure or discovery of greater virulence requiring immediate BSL-4 conversion/scale-up and community-response expenditures.
containment_failure require_bsl4_conversion community_outbreak_response
👥 Personnel 85 total
Role Count Notes
Physician / Medical Officer (infectious disease/ID) 5 [#8] Senior clinical staff to supervise isolation ward and treatment; aligns with 5 MDs at ~$250k/yr each.
Registered Nurse 20 [#8] Nursing staff to run a 200-bed isolation capacity (20 RNs @ ~$80k/yr).
Allied Clinical Staff (therapists, neuropsychologists, rehab) 10 [#8, #16] Allied clinicians for cognitive assessment and rehabilitation; headcount and salaries included in clinical staff wage estimate.
Contact Tracer / Epidemiology Field Staff 20 [#11] Dedicated contact-tracing team (20 tracers @ ~$60k/yr).
Security Officer / MTF Agent 30 [#9] Increased security staffing for 24/7 presence and escorted transport (30 guards @ ~$50k/yr; overtime budgeted separately).
📋 Confidence Notes
Wide parameter ranges, unknown long-term disability rate and antiviral per-course cost, and uncertainty over whether BSL-3 suffices vs. BSL-4 create high uncertainty in both one-time and recurring estimates.
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