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SCP-5631 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-5631
Expected annual
$127.9M
One-time setup
$938.5M
Annual recurring
$123.1M
Personnel
200
One-time setup is estimated at $938,500,000 driven primarily by naval/submersible acquisitions and a large contingency reserve; recurring costs are approximately $123,100,000/year dominated by staff wages, platform O&M and fleet/logistics.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $938.5M
Contingency Response Fund $500.0M
[#28] Catastrophic response reserve for ontokinetic escalation, global mobilization, coalition support, emergency research acceleration (pre-funded large reserve).
Equipment $307.0M
[#3, #5, #6, #8, #11a, #22a, #24a] Surface fleet purchase/refit, purchased submersible, AUV/ROV hardware and winches, wide-area sensor package, aviation assets purchase, medical/medevac equipment, secure servers setup as hardware.
Facilities $80.0M
[#1] Construction/acquisition of Provisional Site-120: fixed/modular offshore platform, accommodation, helipad, dockage, blast/sigil-resistant rooms, continuous-staffing infrastructure.
Decommissioning Reserve $25.0M
[#29] Salvage, disposal and decommissioning reserve for eventual dismantling, contaminated-material disposal and long-term remediation.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $15.5M
[#12, #14a, #15, #19a] Laboratory upgrades (BSL-equivalent, mass-spec, SEM, cryostorage), thaumaturgical facility buildout, memetic R&D lab setup, cadaver/ship conservation setup at Site-430.
Legal Diplomatic Reserve $10.0M
[#18a] Initial legal/diplomatic/bribery/compensation reserve for permits, retainers, settlements and covert payments.
Cover Story Setup $1.0M
[#17a] One-time setup of Cover Story-100 campaign, staged deterrence materials and initial PR/staging.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $123.1M/yr
Staff Wages $50.0M/yr
[#20] Continuous payroll for programme staff (scientists, naval crews, security, medics, memetics/history teams), benefits and rotation premiums.
Facilities Maintenance $30.0M/yr
[#2] Offshore platform operations & maintenance: routine maintenance, insurance, port fees, dry-dock scheduling, waste disposal, shore resupply logistics (excluding wages counted in #20).
Logistics And Transport $24.0M/yr
[#4, #11b, #23] Surface fleet OPEX (fuel, crew rotations, spare parts), aviation operations (helicopter/UAV ops), and fuel/power logistics for offshore operations.
Research And Monitoring $8.3M/yr
[#7, #9, #10, #14b, #24b, #25, #26, #27] AUV/ROV operations, sensor maintenance and data processing, satellite/tasking purchases, thaumaturgy program salaries/consumables, data ops & analysts, psychological fieldwork, Department of History investigations, environmental monitoring.
Supplies And Consumables $3.5M/yr
[#13, #19b, #30] Laboratory consumables and per-sample analysis, ongoing cadaver/ship preservation consumables, miscellaneous consumables and small capital replacements.
Cover Story And Legal $3.3M/yr
[#16, #17b, #18b] Memetic dissemination & maintenance, annual staged deterrence operations for Cover Story-100, and annual legal/diplomatic retainer/settlements.
Security Operations $3.0M/yr
[#21] On-site guards, armed escorts, anti-boarding, counter-surveillance, training, and rapid reaction teams.
Medical Operations $1.0M/yr
[#22b] Ongoing medical staffing, medevac budgets and trauma care operations (separate from one-time medevac equipment).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $123.1M/yr
85.0% probability / year
Normal year with no major incidents; routine containment, research, and operations continue.
no breaches routine maintenance and research
🚨 Minor Incident $128.1M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Localized incident (e.g., equipment loss, small-scale ontokinetic activation patch) requiring accelerated response and repair.
localized anomalous activity equipment loss/damage
🚨 Major Breach $323.1M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$200.0M vs baseline
Significant ontokinetic escalation or containment breach requiring coalition military support, emergency mobilization and large-scale mitigation.
large-scale ontokinetic activation international military/aid mobilization
🚨 Political Exposure $133.1M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
Significant political exposure or journalistic leak forcing expanded cover operations, legal settlements and diplomatic payments.
major leak international diplomatic dispute
👥 Personnel 200 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 50 [#20] Marine biologists, physicists, thaumaturgists and memetics researchers; included in staff wages.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 60 [#20, #21] On-site guards, rapid reaction teams and boarding teams; primary security payroll included in staff wages and security operations.
Naval Crew / Maritime Personnel 40 [#3, #4, #20] Crews for patrol vessels, OPVs and support boats; wages partially included in staff_wages and fleet OPEX.
Engineer / Maintenance 20 [#2, #6, #8] Platform and equipment maintenance, ROV/AUV technicians and sensor technicians.
Data Analyst 10 [#9, #10, #24b] Signal analysts, remote-sensing specialists and ML/data ops staff.
Medical Officer 6 [#22b, #22a] On-site medics and evacuation coordinators; medevac equipment one-time costs separate.
Administrative Staff 14 [#17a, #18a, #20] Program managers, legal liaisons, logistics and administrative support included in staff wages and legal/diplomatic budgets.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes are detailed and enumerate many cost categories, but several line items (asset purchase vs lease, scale of fleet/submersible, and contingent catastrophic reserve) have very wide ranges, producing substantial uncertainty in one-time capital and scenario costs.
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