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SCP-5638 Unknown ? low confidence
SCP-5638
Expected annual
$17.4M
One-time setup
$111.4M
Annual recurring
$16.5M
Personnel
34
One-time capital (containment cells, life-support, site buildout, maritime assets) dominate costs (~$111M in this estimate), while recurring maritime patrol, staff wages, and specialized supplies drive annual spending (~$16.5M/yr baseline).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $111.4M
Opv Purchase Capex $70.0M
[#14] Purchase-option capital for offshore patrol vessels (2 vessels, median $35M each -> ~$70,000,000). Included because purchase option listed in notes.
Decommissioning $11.0M
[#27] One-time decommissioning/termination contingency (median ~$11,000,000 of $2M–$20M range).
Facilities $10.5M
[#1, #4] Site-17 containment chamber build-out (70 wet cells) and site renovation/security hardening; combined medians from notes: $7,000,000 + $3,500,000 = $10,500,000.
Contingency Fund $6.0M
[#22] One-time containment breach contingency fund reserved (median ~$6,000,000 of $2M–$10M range).
Equipment $5.0M
[#2, #11, #15, #18, #23] Life-support (saltwater filtration) and installed monitoring/communication/behavioral hardware: life-support ~$2,250,000; CCTV/hydrophones ~$350,000; sonobuoy/drone/ground station ~$2,000,000; comms hardware ~$250,000; behavioral/lighting system hardware ~$150,000 (summed).
Helicopter Purchase Capex $5.0M
[#16] Helicopter purchase option median ~$5,000,000 (range $4M–$6M) included as one-time capital option.
Insurance Reserve Establishment $1.2M
[#21] One-time establishment of insurance/liability reserve (median of $500k–$2M).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.1M
[#10] Wet-lab and diagnostic buildout (PCR/sequencing, imaging, autopsy suite, aquaria benches) median ~$1,150,000.
Backup Power $750K
[#3] N+1 diesel generators and UPS purchase & installation median ~$750,000 (range $500k–$1M).
Transport Modules $500K
[#5] Capture/transport containment modules, portable saltwater trailers, hoists and crates median ~$500,000.
Legal Setup $200K
[#17] One-time legal/diplomatic/cover setup work estimated ~$200,000.
Vetting Surge $50K
[#25] One-time personnel vetting surge cost noted at $50,000.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $16.5M/yr
Logistics And Transport $4.7M/yr
[#5, #14, #16] Maritime patrol (charter option) median ~$4,500,000/yr [#14]; rapid response helicopter charter contingency ~$200,000/yr [#16]; routine transport/crate maintenance and trailers amortization included ~$0.5M one-time but recurring ops included in patrol/air costs; total logistics recurring baseline ~$4,700,000/yr.
Opv Ops If Purchased $3.0M/yr
[#14] If OPVs are purchased instead of chartered, recurring ops/crewing/maintenance estimated ~$3,000,000/yr (range $2–4M/yr per notes).
Staff Wages $2.6M/yr
[#7, #8, #9] On-site staff wages: caretakers/animal techs 12 (with benefits) ~$900,000/yr [#7]; security guards 16 (with benefits) ~$1,000,000/yr [#8]; research/veterinary salaries 6 × $120k = $720,000/yr [#9]. Sum = $2,620,000/yr.
Cover Story And Legal $1.6M/yr
[#17, #18, #21] Annual legal/diplomatic/cover operations median ~$900,000/yr [#17]; communications/OPSEC recurring maintenance/audit ~$150,000/yr [#18]; annual insurance/reserve replenishment ~$500,000/yr [#21].
Research And Monitoring $1.3M/yr
[#9, #15, #20, #23, #24] Lab consumables amortization ~$200,000/yr and research staff activities referenced in #9; satellite imagery/tasking and surveillance subscriptions ~$350,000/yr [#15]; translation/linguist services ~$100,000/yr [#20]; behavioral system maintenance/programming ~$75,000/yr [#23]; environmental/oceanographic monitoring ~$550,000/yr [#24]. Total ~ $1,275,000/yr.
Helicopter Ops If Purchased $1.1M/yr
[#16] If helicopter is purchased, ops/maintenance/pilots ~$1,150,000/yr (median of $800k–$1.5M/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $949K/yr
[#6, #12, #28] Annual seafood supply (~$574,000/yr) [#6]; medical/emergency consumables ~$100,000/yr [#12]; miscellaneous consumables/overhead ~$275,000/yr [#28].
Energy $650K/yr
[#3, #26] Electricity for pumps/filters/lighting and diesel fuel for generators and fuel for patrol craft/helicopter charters: median ~$650,000/yr.
Facilities Maintenance $250K/yr
[#11, #13] Recurring maintenance: CCTV/storage maintenance ~$50,000/yr [#11]; decontamination/waste-water treatment and compliance ~$200,000/yr [#13].
Training And Drills $200K/yr
[#19] Regular training, scuba/underwater operations, containment drills and bilingual/translation training median ~$200,000/yr.
Vetting And Counterintelligence $150K/yr
[#25] Ongoing personnel vetting, counter-intel, counseling and monitoring estimated ~$150,000/yr.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $16.5M/yr
87.5% probability / year
Normal, uneventful year with routine operations: charters in place, recurring maintenance and staffing only.
normal operations no breaches routine patrols and research
🚨 Minor Incident $18.5M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Local containment incident or supply disruption causing injuries, temporary facility damage, and emergency medical/supply replacement.
supply loss/storm damage localized riot or injuries temporary mobilization of extra staff/vessels
🚨 Major Breach $41.5M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$25.0M vs baseline
Full containment breach or large-scale escape requiring major mobilization, repeated OPV/helicopter deployment, and extensive recovery operations.
multiple-instance escape public exposure risk extended recapture campaign
🚨 Political Exposure $66.5M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Covert presence of island or containment exposed to public/national authorities causing diplomatic/legal response, large settlements, and accelerated decommissioning.
public discovery of SCP-5638-B leaks leading to international attention failed cover operations
👥 Personnel 34 total
Role Count Notes
Technician / Animal Caretaker 12 [#7] 8–12 full-time technicians covering 24/7 shifts; analyst used 12 as baseline.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 16 [#8] 24/7 additional armed guards and rapid-response team; analyst assumed 16 guards.
Research Scientist / Veterinarian 6 [#9] Xenobiologists, marine biologists, veterinarians and behavioral staff; analyst assumed 6 salaried researchers/vets.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are order-of-magnitude based on analyst notes with multiple alternative procurement models (charter vs purchase), uncertain operational tempo, and atypical maritime/anomalous risks; significant uncertainty around frequency/severity of breach or political exposure.
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