SCP-5656 — SCP-5656 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-5656 Safe ~ medium confidence

SCP-5656

Expected annual

$670.7M

One-time setup

$1.9B

Annual recurring

$621.7M

Personnel

500

One-time integration and covert-access expenses dominate upfront costs (satellite payload work, data centers, suborning ground stations and contingency reserves), while ongoing costs are driven by OKMGLOS data processing, covert access maintenance, personnel, and periodic servicing/response contracts.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.9B

Initial Suborning And Covert Access $525.0M

[#7] Initial covert access / suborning campaign across high-value ground stations (midpoint of $50M–$1B+).

Extra Propellant Launch Cost $315.0M

[#2] Extra propellant / launch mass marginal cost for 150 satellites (midpoint of $200k–$4M/satellite).

Equipment $251.2M

[#1, #3, #22] Satellite payload modification hardware (#1), structural reinforcement/ADCS upgrades (#3), and onboard monitoring instrumentation (#22) aggregated at mid-range per-satellite * 150.

Contingency Interceptor Procurement $200.0M

[#11] One-time reserve for bespoke interceptor craft / rapid-response hardware (selected moderate value within $100M–$1B band).

Strategic Scale Up Reserve $200.0M

[#28] Opportunity / scale-up capital reserve (selected conservative-to-moderate value within $50M–$2B).

Facilities $105.0M

[#8] Hardened datacenter / OKMGLOS physical construction (midpoint of analyst range).

Robotic Servicing Capability Procurement $100.0M

[#10] One-time acquisition/development of on-orbit servicing capability (if Foundation elects to possess dedicated capability).

Insurance Reserve $100.0M

[#19] Initial insurance / litigation contingency reserve (moderate value within $10M–$500M).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $55.2M

[#9, #16] Secure xenobiology/thaumaturgy lab buildout (#9) plus cryo/biobanking sequencing setup (#16) (mid-range).

Integration And Testing Labor $33.8M

[#4] Clean-room integration, environmental and thruster cycling testing for 150 satellites (mid-range).

Ground Segment Software Development $27.5M

[#6] One-time development to modify mission-control, telemetry handling, secure uplink, and mask mass changes (mid-range).

Satellite Procurement And Launch $0

[#5] Procurement of full replacement satellites is scenario-dependent; baseline assumes piggybacking/suborning existing replacements so set to $0 here.

Public Data Manipulation Incident Fund $0

[#23] One-time per-incident staging budgets exist but are budgeted as recurring baseline; set one-time incident fund to $0 in baseline.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $621.7M/yr

Suborning Maintenance Ops $105.0M/yr

[#7] Recurring costs to maintain clandestine access to external control stations (mid-range of $10M–$200M/yr).

Robotic Servicing Missions $100.0M/yr

[#10] Recurring on-orbit servicing mission costs (assumes modest cadence / one to two contracted missions at conservative per-mission cost).

Staff Wages $60.0M/yr

[#12] Personnel payroll for OKMGLOS ops, engineering, xenobiology, covert ops and support (500 FTEs * ~$120k fully burdened).

Cover Story And Legal $52.5M/yr

[#14] Cover-story programs, legal retainers, PR, and intergovernmental liaison costs (mid-range).

Data Processing And Storage $52.5M/yr

[#8] OKMGLOS datacenter operations, HPC, power/cooling, staff for real-time thaum triangulation (mid-range).

Logistics And Transport $50.0M/yr

[#10, #11] Standby logistics, occasional launch/transport margins and small mission support (baseline recurring logistics).

Diplomatic And Intel Ops $50.0M/yr

[#20] Ongoing diplomatic, intelligence, and state-level mitigation payments/ops (conservative mid-range estimate).

Research And Monitoring $26.0M/yr

[#17] Ongoing R&D investment into interfaces, gas chemistry, thaum mitigation and analytics (mid-range).

Cybersecurity And Deception Ops $25.5M/yr

[#15] Ongoing IT ops to spoof telemetry, alter public catalogs, and maintain OPSEC (mid-range).

Debris Remediation $20.0M/yr

[#24] Annual debris coordination / remediation response (conservative baseline).

Security Operations $11.0M/yr

[#13] Physical security, armed response and CI for ground sites (mid-range).

Supplies And Consumables $10.2M/yr

[#18] Consumables and replacement parts (mid-range annual estimate).

Emergency Readiness Fees $10.0M/yr

[#11] Readiness/standby fees for rapid-response launch contracts and contingency services.

Insurance Replenishment $10.0M/yr

[#19] Annual replenishment/escrow contributions for litigation/settlement reserve.

Decoy Programs $10.0M/yr

[#21] Funding of public-facing decoy projects and commercial cover launches (moderate baseline).

Ground Segment Operations $5.5M/yr

[#6] Ongoing ops, secure comms, and maintenance of ground control modifications.

Audit And Oversight $5.2M/yr

[#25] Internal auditing, red-teaming and compliance reviews (mid-range).

Facilities Maintenance $5.0M/yr

[#8, #9] Physical maintenance and upkeep for datacenters and containment facilities (low-to-mid estimate).

Public Data Manipulation Baseline $5.0M/yr

[#23] Baseline annual budget for false-flag communications and data manipulation (smaller recurring spend).

Training And Simulation $2.6M/yr

[#27] Training, simulations and drills for handling detachment events and cross-disciplinary response.

Energy Costs $2.5M/yr

[#26] Power, UPS and backup generation for datacenters, labs and beacons.

Instrumentation Operations $2.0M/yr

[#22] Calibration, telemetry and on-orbit sensor ops for monitoring instrumentation.

Long Term Cryo Operations $1.1M/yr

[#16] Cryobanking and sequencing operations recurring costs (mid-range).

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $621.7M/yr

89.5% probability / year

Normal operational year with routine maintenance, covert access maintained, occasional small servicing and no major incidents.

routine_ops no_major_incidents

🚨 Minor Incident $671.7M/yr

8.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline

Localized exposure or technical anomaly requiring emergency response, extra PR/legal, a small number of rapid missions and increased covert spending.

localized_public_exposure small_retrieval_mission

🚨 Major Breach $1.6B/yr

2.0% probability / year +$1.0B vs baseline

Significant containment breach or public exposure requiring interceptor launches, large-scale diplomatic/legal settlements and surge security/servicing.

widespread_exposure state_level_involvement

🚨 Procurement Scaleup $5.6B/yr

0.5% probability / year +$5.0B vs baseline

Decision/necessity to procure and deploy dedicated replacement satellites and launches (full-constellation procurement and launch campaign).

program_scaleup loss_of_civilian_access

👥 Personnel 500 total

Role	Count	Notes
Research Scientist	120	[#9, #17] Lab research, xenobiology and thaumaturgic analysis staff.
Engineer / Maintenance	80	[#3, #22, #4] Satellite payload engineers, ADCS tuning, instrumentation maintenance and integration/testing support.
Security Officer / MTF Agent	100	[#13, #11] Physical security, armed response and rapid-reaction teams.
Administrative Staff	50	[#14, #25] Program administration, legal liaison and compliance support.
Cybersecurity / Intelligence Operator	40	[#7, #15, #23] Covert access maintenance, telemetry spoofing and data-manipulation operations.
Xenobiologist / Lab Technician	60	[#9, #16] Tissue handling, cryobanking and sequencing operations.
Field Ops / Covert Operators	30	[#7, #20] Covert liaison, payoffs, HUMINT and state-level mitigation support.
Site Director / Executive Staff	5	[#12] Program leadership and executive oversight.
Medical Officer	15	[#12, #16] On-site medical support and biohazard response.

📋 Confidence Notes

Analyst notes provide ranges and clear line-item categories but many items (frequency of servicing missions, extent of covert access costs, and procurement decisions) are scenario-dependent; estimates use midpoints and conservative choices.

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