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SCP-5761 Unknown ? low confidence
SCP-5761
Expected annual
$1.7B
One-time setup
$4.4B
Annual recurring
$1.7B
Personnel
100
One-time establishment and hardware purchases are expected to total several billion USD (primarily spacecraft, takeover module, and replacement-station contingency); recurring operations average ~1.65B USD/yr driven by launch/logistics, long-term reserve and staffing.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $4.4B
Equipment $1.9B
[#6, #8, #10, #11, #13, #17, #19, #23, #9] Mission-capable vehicle(s) (#6), takeover/control module hardware integrated to ISS (#8), robotic manipulators/free-flyers (#10), EVA suits (#11), high-power ground-to-orbit hardware (#13), hardened comms hardware (#17), on-orbit spares/batteries/thermal gear (#19), specialized boarding tooling (#23), boarding team equipment/training pipeline setup (#9).
Facilities $1.0B
[#1, #14, #25, #28] JOC setup (#1), medical/quarantine facility (#14), contingency replacement station build/reserve (#25), evidence storage vaults (#28) - aggregated estimate.
Deorbit Prevention $600.0M
[#24] Contingency planning and capabilities (controlled destruction / deorbit-prevention planning, environmental / cleanup preparedness) - operational & political costs estimate.
Insurance Reserve $200.0M
[#21] Insurance / indemnity reserve to cover large diplomatic / liability claims and collisions.
Contractor Premiums $200.0M
[#27] Rapid-procurement/expedite premiums paid to contractors for bespoke hardware, rush timelines and custom work.
Liaison And Reimbursement Fund $175.0M
[#2] One-time reimbursements/retainers to partner space agencies for access, lost revenue, NDAs and cooperation.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $103.0M
[#12, #15] Containment/neutralization R&D lab buildout and testbeds (#12) and forensic/pathology lab setup (#15).
Dedicated Microsat Launchs $100.0M
[#5] Option to build/launch dedicated micro-satellites to augment monitoring (development + launch capex).
Tug Mission $100.0M
[#20] Single tug mission capability (one-time mission procurement/integration) as contingency for reboost/deorbit control.
Fast Track Launch Slots $30.0M
[#18] Priority booking / payload integration infrastructure / fees for emergency fast-track launch slots (initial purchases/retainers).
Legal Pr Initial $16.0M
[#3] Initial legal, PR, information suppression contract setup, takedown contracts and initial litigation contingency funds.
Public Compensation $10.0M
[#29] Initial public compensation and domestic cover-story funds (upfront payments and settlement pool).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.7B/yr
Long Term Reserve $1.0B/yr
[#30] Multi-year reserve to sustain surveillance, replacements, R&D and unexpected escalations averaged per year.
Logistics And Transport $485.0M/yr
[#7, #9, #20, #22] Dedicated cargo/resupply flights (estimate 4 flights/yr) and integration (#7), per-mission boarding vehicle ops (#9), propellant/reboost and tug usage estimate (#20), launch-site/maritime mission security per-year (#22).
Replacement Station Ops $50.0M/yr
[#25] Operating costs if replacement microstation or hosted platforms are provisioned (ops, staffing, resupply).
Staff Wages $35.0M/yr
[#26, #1] Salaries, hazard pay and benefits for mission controllers, pilots, engineers, scientists, security and core staff (baseline staffing).
Liaison Reimbursements $30.0M/yr
[#2] Annual reimbursements and cooperation fees paid to partner space agencies for continued classified cooperation and priority access.
Research And Monitoring $18.0M/yr
[#5, #12, #15, #16] Continuous remote monitoring tasking and imaging (#5), R&D staffing and program costs (#12), forensic lab operations (#15), bio/psych monitoring of survivors (#16).
Intelligence And Counterintelligence $15.0M/yr
[#4] Ongoing HUMINT/OSINT, cyber ops, monitoring communications and counter-leak operations.
Cover Story And Legal $8.0M/yr
[#3, #29, #21] Ongoing legal defense, PR monitoring, social-media takedowns, recurring public compensation and premiums/policy costs.
Supplies And Consumables $3.8M/yr
[#11, #23, #28] EVA consumables and per-EVA consumable costs (#11), replacement tooling/consumables (#23), evidence storage operations (#28).
Facilities Maintenance $2.0M/yr
[#1, #17] Ongoing JOC operations, power, site maintenance and comms hardware upkeep.
Comms Bandwidth $2.0M/yr
[#17] Leased bandwidth, ground station ops, crypto key management and redundant links recurring costs.
Medical Operations $2.0M/yr
[#14] Medical/quarantine facility staffing and operations costs per year.
Medical Acute Care $1.0M/yr
[#14] Acute per-patient care contingency (assumes several high-cost cases per year).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.7B/yr
88.0% probability / year
Normal year with steady containment posture, scheduled resupply flights, routine R&D and reserve funding maintained; no major incidents.
routine operations scheduled cargo/resupply steady intel and legal posture
🚨 Minor Incident $1.9B/yr
10.0% probability / year +$200.0M vs baseline
Localized incident requiring an emergency boarding/resupply surge, additional legal/liaison actions and a few expedited launches.
single emergency boarding/rescue mission 2-3 expedited cargo flights heightened legal/PR activity
🚨 Major Breach $3.7B/yr
2.0% probability / year +$2.0B vs baseline
Significant escalation: launch of takeover/propulsion module, multiple rescue/cargo launches, large-scale international/legal response and accelerated R&D.
loss of attitude or imminent re-entry risk multiple-personnel rescue operations activation of takeover module / dedicated tug missions
👥 Personnel 100 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 30 [#9, #22, #26] Tactical boarding and launch-site security personnel; surge-capable MTF staffing.
Research Scientist 20 [#12, #15, #16] Containment R&D, forensic/pathology, bio/psych research staffing.
Mission Controllers / Flight Ops 10 [#1, #6, #7, #20] JOC/missions control for launch integration, tug/propulsion and crewed vehicle ops.
Engineer / Maintenance 15 [#10, #11, #19, #23] Robotics, EVA suit maintenance, on-orbit spares and specialized tooling support.
Medical Officer 5 [#14, #16] Quarantine, acute care, long-term survivor monitoring.
Administrative Staff 5 [#1, #29] JOC administration, logistics coordination, cover-story administration.
Legal / PR 5 [#3, #29, #21] Ongoing legal defense, information suppression, public compensation coordination.
Intelligence / Cyber Ops 6 [#4] HUMINT/OSINT analysts and cyber operators to prevent leaks and protect telemetry.
Robotics Operators 4 [#10, #5] Remote manipulator and free-flyer operators for non-human intervention.
📋 Confidence Notes
Wide ranges in analyst estimates, contingent political/contractor pricing, and technical uncertainty (anomalous behavior) produce high variance; many one-time options are choice-dependent, reducing confidence.
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