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SCP-580 Keter ? low confidence
SCP-580
Expected annual
$463.3M
One-time setup
$4.4B
Annual recurring
$355.5M
Personnel
37
Large upfront capital for persistent cis-lunar infrastructure dominates one-time costs (satellite constellation, habitat, communications, retrieval campaign). Annual recurring costs are dominated by crewed intercept missions, habitat/ground maintenance and logistics; ancillary research, legal/cover and insurance are material but smaller.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $4.4B
Long Term Retrieval Campaign $2.8B
[#23] Optional large-scale capture/retrieval program (midpoint of 500M–5B contingency campaign).
Permanent Cis Lunar Habitat $1.2B
[#4] Capital cost to build/lease a small cis-lunar habitat / staging platform (mid-range).
Satellite Constellation $150.0M
[#1] Design/build/launch of small cis-lunar tracking constellation (mid-range estimate).
Deep Space Comm Ground Relays $106.0M
[#2] Ground high-gain upgrades and dedicated relay satellite (ground upgrades + relay satellite midpoints).
Reentry Evacuation Capsules $90.0M
[#5] Fleet of return/evacuation capsules, heatshields and contingency launch readiness.
Facilities $27.5M
[#2, #13, #20, #18] Ground upgrades for deep-space comms, secure artifact vault construction, initial medical/quarantine facility build, and ground power array buy/installation.
Contingency Defensive R And D Capital $5.5M
[#11] R&D and prototype development for non-lethal disabling technologies (capital phase).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.8M
[#12] Cleanroom and materials testing / micro-CT and occult/thaumaturgical lab startup costs.
Specialized Non Aggressive Equipment $1.8M
[#10] Outfitting contact craft with non-threatening comms suites, eye-safe sensors, quiet docking gear, backups.
Contact Leader Immersion Training $35K
[#7] One-time cultural/immersion training per Contact Leader (midpoint).
Equipment $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $355.5M/yr
Logistics And Transport $256.0M/yr
[#3, #6, #5] Annual budget for periodic crewed intercept missions (per-launch mission costs aggregated to annual), propellant/delta-V logistics, and contingency transport readiness.
Facilities Maintenance $53.0M/yr
[#4, #5] Habitat / ground facility operations & maintenance (habitat ops estimate) and reentry/evacuation capsule maintenance/standby.
Insurance Contingency Reserve $20.0M/yr
[#17] Internal reserve and contingency set-aside (10–30% guideline applied as an annualized reserve).
Administrative Overhead $10.0M/yr
[#24] Classified program management, hr, auditors and compartmentalization overhead (annual estimate).
Staff Wages $5.3M/yr
[#7, #8, #9, #12, #20] Salaries for standing mission crew (incl. Contact Leader), rotating field agents/security, linguists/cultural advisors, research staff and medical/quarantine personnel (aggregated).
Cover Story And Legal $3.6M/yr
[#16, #22] Legal/intel cover operations, censorship/disinformation budgets, and PR/incident response retention.
Research And Monitoring $2.5M/yr
[#12, #14, #15, #11] Ongoing scientific staffing/consumables, data logging/archival, field archaeology/recovery ops, and follow-up R&D support.
Power Systems Maintenance $2.5M/yr
[#18] Maintenance for solar arrays, batteries and RTG support for station/ground assets.
Deep Space Bandwidth Ops $1.2M/yr
[#2] Dedicated DSN-level bandwidth, encryption ops and relay telemetry costs (annual ops).
Secure Containment Operations $550K/yr
[#13] Annual operations for secure artifact containment vaults, climate control, shielding and security staffing.
Supplies And Consumables $525K/yr
[#19, #25, #10] Consumables for crew missions (food, O2, medical supplies), small-scale spare parts and annual spares/calibration for non-aggressive equipment.
Training Simulations $175K/yr
[#21] Ongoing training, rehearsals, immersion and scenario development for contact teams.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $355.5M/yr
87.0% probability / year
Normal year under current minimal/persistent mix: recurring monitoring, 1–2 intercepts/year (budgeted), routine research and operations.
no_major_incidents scheduled_contact_operations
🚨 Minor Incident $497.5M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$142.0M vs baseline
Unplanned escalation requiring emergency intercept, medical evacuation and increased PR/legal activity.
unexpected_hostility urgent_contact_window crew_injury_or_equipment_loss
🚨 Major Breach $3.3B/yr
2.0% probability / year +$3.0B vs baseline
Policy-level decision or crisis requiring full-scale retrieval/capture campaign and extensive international fallout management.
policy_approval_for_retrieval loss_of_SCP_component international_incident
🚨 Persistent Posture Build $1.6B/yr
3.0% probability / year +$1.2B vs baseline
Year in which Foundation approves and spends on constructing/commissioning a permanent cis-lunar habitat.
policy_to_maintain_continuous_presence budget_approval
👥 Personnel 37 total
Role Count Notes
Mission Crew (Astronaut / Pilot / Contact Leader) 6 [#7] Standing contact team including mandated Mandarin-fluent Contact Leader; salaries included in staff_wages.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 12 [#8] Rotating field agents and close-protection teams for space/ground operations; included in staff_wages.
Research Scientist 6 [#12] Materials, necromancy/thaumaturgy and analysis team; staffing costs aggregated into staff_wages/research_and_monitoring.
Linguist / Cultural Advisor / Psychologist 4 [#9] Mandarin-fluent Contact Leader backups, translators and negotiation psychologists; included in staff_wages.
Medical Officer / Quarantine Specialist 2 [#20] Pre/post-flight medical screening and quarantine staff; costs included in staff_wages/facilities_maintenance.
Engineer / Maintenance 3 [#6, #18] Propulsion, power and systems maintenance personnel supporting missions and habitat; included in staff_wages/facilities_maintenance.
Administrative Staff / Program Managers 4 [#24] Classified program management, HR and auditors covered under administrative overhead.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates have low confidence due to wide technical/strategy alternatives (lease vs build, mission frequency), large ranges in analyst inputs, and the anomalous/procedural uncertainties inherent to SCP containment.
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