SCP-5882 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-5882
Expected annual
$152.1M
One-time setup
$13.3M
Annual recurring
$150.1M
Personnel
1306
One-time capital of approximately $13.3M for facility conversions, secure storage, research lab setup and a reversal reserve; recurring annual costs run roughly $150.1M driven primarily by hazard pay/productivity losses, Class-A amnestic procurement/administration, long-term health liabilities, and expanded operations/security.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $13.3M
Decommission Reversal $5.2M
[#25] One-time decommissioning / reversal costs (Emergency Protocol revocation) estimated midpoint of provided range.
Facilities $4.2M
[#3, #8, #22] Secure pharmaceutical storage vault (#3), one-time build for detainment/disciplinary facilities (#8), and 24/7 site conversion construction (#22). Mid-range combined estimate for a medium site.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $3.6M
[#11, #27] One-time research lab setup and equipment for dedicated R&D (#11) and seed funding for alternative-mitigation R&D (#27).
Equipment $300K
[#19] One-time secure recordkeeping / redaction systems and associated IT hardware (systems $100k–$500k).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $150.1M/yr
Staff Wages $50.0M/yr
[#5] Increased payroll / overtime & hazard pay (extra $30k–$70k/person; scaled to ~1,000 affected personnel).
Long Term Liability Reserve $27.5M/yr
[#24] Annualized reserve for long-term health liabilities, disability and workers' compensation (midpoint of per-person range amortized across population).
Productivity Loss $20.0M/yr
[#6] Estimated lost effective output (10–30% of labor value); midpoint applied to ~1,000 affected staff.
Emergency Contingency Reserve $19.6M/yr
[#21] Operational contingency/reserve fund (15% of baseline recurring operational budget as recommended reserve).
Amnestic Procurement $11.0M/yr
[#1] Ongoing procurement/synthesis and QA of Class-A amnestics: midpoint applied to 4 doses/person/yr for ~1,000 affected personnel.
Recruitment Training $4.0M/yr
[#12] Recurring hiring, onboarding, background vetting and retraining due to elevated attrition (assumes ~20% attrition of 1,000 staff).
Cover Story And Legal $3.0M/yr
[#9, #10] Counterintelligence/cover-up operations (#9) and legal counsel / risk management fees (#10) combined as cover/legal budget.
Research And Monitoring $2.8M/yr
[#4, #11, #26, #27] Ongoing medical monitoring & clinic operations (#4), recurring R&D staffing/consumables (#11), prevalence surveys (#26), and ongoing alternative-mitigation program costs (#27).
Supplies And Consumables $2.6M/yr
[#14, #17] Increased food/catering (#14) and consumables/PPE/laundry (#17) for extended wake-period operations.
Internal Security $2.5M/yr
[#7] Increased investigations, covert monitoring, UCT/hot teams and additional armed personnel for internal seditious actions.
Insurance Offbooks Reserve $2.0M/yr
[#23] Insurance, off-books funds and clandestine payment reserves to manage external exposure/liability.
Facilities Maintenance $1.2M/yr
[#15] Additional HVAC, lighting, wear-and-tear, utilities and maintenance for continuous occupancy.
Mental Health Morale $850K/yr
[#13] Counseling, resilience training and morale programs to mitigate seditious behavior.
Recordkeeping Maintenance $575K/yr
[#19] Ongoing secure archival capacity, redaction staffing and secure server operations (recurring portion).
Amnestic Administration $500K/yr
[#2] Administration labor & materials per-dose costs (syringes, PPE, monitoring) for quarterly administrations.
Compliance Audit $425K/yr
[#29] Compliance audits, ethics oversight and internal audit staffing to prevent abuse of amnestics and protocols.
Detainment Recurring $375K/yr
[#8] Recurring staffing & maintenance for detainment/disciplinary facilities (separate from one-time build).
Logistics And Transport $325K/yr
[#20] 24/7 shuttle services, discrete transport and secure couriering of amnestics.
It And Data Operations $300K/yr
[#16] Incremental IT/power/data center load, backups, monitoring and accelerated replacement for medium site.
Capital Replacement Increase $300K/yr
[#28] Increased capital replacement due to accelerated equipment wear (20–40% of baseline replacement; illustrative addition).
Waste Management $275K/yr
[#18] Biohazardous and chemical waste disposal from medical administrations and production.
Scaling Examples $0/yr
[#30] Illustrative per-person scaling examples included in analyst notes; no single-dollar line here (refer to per-person ranges).
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $150.1M/yr
83.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with continuous protocol enforcement and no major incidents.
routine_amnestic_administration ongoing_hazard_pay_and_monitoring
🚨 Minor Incident $155.1M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Localized internal sedition or investigation requiring surge security, targeted mass amnestic use and additional legal/cover activity.
localized_sedition targeted_mass_amnestic increased_internal_investigation
🚨 Major Breach $210.1M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$60.0M vs baseline
Major mass-sedition or public exposure event requiring mass amnestic application, large-scale counterintelligence, legal settlements and possible partial decommission/reversal actions.
mass_sedition public_exposure mass_amnestic_application
👥 Personnel 1306 total
Role Count Notes
On-site technical/research staff 1000 Primary affected personnel roster assumed for medium-site scenario; these staff drive hazard pay and productivity-loss estimates. [maps to #5,#6]
Security Officer / MTF Agent 150 Armed personnel for continuous internal security and patrols. [maps to #7]
Internal Security Investigator 20 UCT/hot-team investigators for internal incidents and surveillance operations. [maps to #7]
Research Scientist 13 R&D staff for mechanism studies and mitigation research (part of research recurring). [maps to #11,#27]
Medical Officer 10 Clinicians for monitoring, amnestic administration oversight and side-effect mitigation clinics. [maps to #2,#4]
Engineer / Maintenance 20 Facilities and systems maintenance to support 24/7 operations and increased wear-and-tear. [maps to #15,#28]
Administrative Staff 20 General site administration, scheduling, HR support for high-churn environment. [maps to #12]
Records Officer 8 Secure archival, redaction and records maintenance staff. [maps to #19]
Compliance / Audit Staff 5 Internal auditors and ethics oversight to manage protocol compliance. [maps to #29]
Logistics / Transport Staff 10 Drivers and logistics personnel for continuous transport and couriering of materials. [maps to #20]
Catering / Janitorial / Support Staff 50 Support staff for 24/7 cafeterias, laundry and janitorial services. [maps to #14,#17,#15]
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide line-item ranges and clear drivers but key inputs (percent of staff affected, per-dose amnestic cost, attrition, and long-term health liabilities) are highly variable; medium confidence reflects reasonable mid-range assumptions for a 'medium' site but substantial uncertainty remains.
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