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SCP-5900 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-5900
Expected annual
$9.5M
One-time setup
$99.0M
Annual recurring
$8.7M
Personnel
30
One-time capital and remediation costs are estimated at roughly $99M dominated by satellite replacement, equipment and resilience upgrades; ongoing annual operations and monitoring cost roughly $8.7M/year driven by staffing, long‑term monitoring, and increased legal/insurance/OPSEC overhead.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $99.0M
Facilities $50.0M
[#4, #9] Capital works for data‑center recovery and resilience/resilience upgrades (additional ground stations, geographic diversity, site upgrades).
Equipment $28.4M
[#6, #7, #8, #11, #16, #24, #27] Ground‑station hardware repair/replacement, satellite replacement/repair contingency, spare parts stockpile initial procurement, backup/air‑gap hardware rebuild, replacement of auxiliaries, burst compute hardware, and secure hardware destruction handling.
Contingency Fund One Time $7.0M
[#28] Contingency / incident reserve to cover emergent unknowns, legal judgments, or escalation discovered during remediation.
Operational Loss Placeholder $5.0M
[#17] Conservative placeholder for loss of intelligence / opportunity cost for a significant 5‑day blind spot event.
Procurement Premium One Time $5.0M
[#25] Procurement lead‑time mitigation premium applied to capital purchases (expedited manufacturing clauses).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.5M
[#10] Initial software/countermeasure development environment, QA/test lab setup, and tooling for hardened deploys and regression testing.
Forensic Investigation Incident $500K
[#3] One‑time incident forensic investigation (internal + external specialists) for a representative outage event.
Internal Investigation $300K
[#19] One‑time Department of Internal Security probe costs, hearings, and personnel actions.
Temporary Communications $200K
[#5] Short‑term leased SATCOM/bandwidth and emergency encrypted channels to restore command and control during outage.
Contractor Mobilization $200K
[#12] External contractor emergency mobilization fees and expedited shipping.
Training Initial One Time $200K
[#26] Initial tabletop exercises, SOP rewriting, and staff training associated with remediation.
Allied Communications Reimbursements One Time $200K
[#29] Reimbursements and cost‑sharing payments to allied agencies for leased services used during the outage.
Public Relations One Time $150K
[#20] Event‑driven PR / cover story campaign, stakeholder communications, and misinformation mitigation for a discrete incident.
Follow Up Audits One Time $150K
[#22] Initial independent review panels and certification costs immediately post‑incident.
Logistics And Secure Transport Incident $100K
[#13] Secure courier, charter flights, and escorted convoys for classified hardware and personnel during an incident.
Insurance Claims Processing One Time $50K
[#21] Claims processing and initial insurance handling for damaged hardware after an incident.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $8.7M/yr
Staff Wages $3.0M/yr
[#1, #2, #14, #23, #30] Ongoing wages for permanent operations staff (technicians, engineers, management), security staffing baseline, and policy/liaison hires to maintain confidence.
Research And Monitoring $1.8M/yr
[#3, #23, #10] Ongoing anomaly detection, SIEM/telemetry processing, periodic forensic audits, and engineering work to develop/maintain countermeasures.
Reputation Policy Hires $1.0M/yr
[#30] Ongoing hires (policy, liaison, and partnership roles) to mitigate reputational/mission degradation.
Contingency Reserve Recurring $1.0M/yr
[#28] Annual reserve contribution to cover unknowns, legal exposure, and incremental escalations.
Facilities Maintenance $500K/yr
[#4, #9, #15] O&M for Site‑07 and other facilities, generator/UPS maintenance and fuel, and increased maintenance due to resilience upgrades.
Cover Story And Legal $350K/yr
[#18, #20, #21] Ongoing legal counsel, compliance, liaison work, and PR/cover‑story maintenance and monitoring.
Spares Refresh And Inventory $250K/yr
[#8] Annual refresh and rotation of strategic spares stockpile to avoid obsolescence.
Compute Cloud Recurring $200K/yr
[#24] Ongoing cloud/air‑gapped compute capacity and storage to support reprocessing backlogs and analytics.
Insurance Premium Increase $200K/yr
[#21] Increased annual insurance premiums and ongoing claims administration costs post‑incident.
Supplies And Consumables $150K/yr
[#8, #12, #27] Consumable spares refresh, expedited parts, secure destruction processing consumables, and routine replacement of small items.
Follow Up Audits Recurring $100K/yr
[#22] Regular independent audits and compliance certifications as part of a multi‑year remediation program.
Logistics And Transport $50K/yr
[#13, #29] Routine secure transport, small reimbursements to partners, and regular classified courier costs.
Training Ongoing $50K/yr
[#26] Recurring training and tabletop exercises to maintain readiness and updated SOPs.
Security Overtime $50K/yr
[#14] Recurring budget for increased guard overtime and episodic armed response during incidents.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $8.7M/yr
93.9% probability / year
Normal year with no major incident; ongoing monitoring, maintenance, and program staffing only.
no outage routine operations periodic audits
🚨 Minor Incident $12.6M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$3.9M vs baseline
Software/ground‑based outage limited to Site‑07 and nearby ground sites; no satellites permanently lost.
multi‑day outage (software/config) local ground repairs forensic investigation
🚨 Major Incident $38.7M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$30.0M vs baseline
Multiple ground sites affected with partial satellite damage and significant data loss requiring extensive rebuilds.
multiple site failures satellite repairs/replacements large data recovery effort
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $318.7M/yr
0.1% probability / year +$310.0M vs baseline
Loss of several high‑value satellites, major archival/data destruction and national‑security consequences; multi‑year capital replacement required.
multiple high‑value satellite losses major data loss / operational failure international escalation
👥 Personnel 30 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 6 Data scientists and anomaly researchers supporting PANOPTICON and SKYEYE.
Technician / Engineer 8 Onsite technicians for routine ops and maintenance of ground systems.
Senior Engineer / Systems Lead 3 Senior engineers and architects leading diagnostics, patching, and recovery.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 Physical security, armed response, and site protection staff.
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 Containment Director / incident commander and executive oversight.
Administrative Staff 3 Liaisons, procurement, and administrative support.
Medical Officer 1 Medical/health support for site personnel and incident response.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide comprehensive line items and realistic ranges, but very large uncertainty remains for satellite replacement, operational loss/opportunity costs, and the frequency of incidents; these introduce substantial variance in one‑time and scenario costs.
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