SCP-5973 — SCP-5973 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-5973 Safe ~ medium confidence

SCP-5973

Expected annual

$244.5M

One-time setup

$2.3B

Annual recurring

$89.5M

Personnel

250

Estimated one-time recovery, remediation and legal costs are on the order of multiple billions (≈$2.31B one-time) driven primarily by geotechnical stabilization, debris removal, decommissioning/salvage, large-scale contracting and contingency reserves. Annual recurring operations to secure and monitor the 27 km exclusion zone plus research and support run at roughly $89.5M/yr, dominated by perimeter staffing, ongoing deployments and monitoring/research.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.3B

Facilities $923.0M

[#4, #8, #9, #19, #30] Physical/construction work: road closures, barriers, debris removal/demolition, geotechnical stabilization/entombment, temporary infrastructure buildout and final committal/memorial costs.

Decommissioning And Salvage $300.0M

[#10] Decommissioning/salvage or secure removal of accelerator components and associated infrastructure.

Contingency Reserve $300.0M

[#25] Recommended contingency reserve (15–25% of base program) for unforeseen complications, legal escalation, or anomalous behavior.

Legal Settlements $200.0M

[#17] One-time legal settlements, hush payments and government liaison payouts as contingency.

Land Acquisition $150.0M

[#14] Covert purchase or legal securement of property rights across the exclusion zone.

Heavy Contractors $80.0M

[#18] Contracting tunnelling, demolition, hazardous-materials and heavy-lift firms for extended remediation.

Cover Welfare One Time $80.0M

[#28] One-time economic mitigation and municipal/stimulus funds to keep surrounding municipalities compliant.

Mortuary And Remains Processing $41.0M

[#6] Mortuary, forensic identification, temporary storage and mass disposition logistics for ~14,000 decedents.

Survivor Relocation One Time $40.0M

[#15] One-time relocation, temporary/permanent housing and compensation packages for displaced survivors.

Equipment $36.5M

[#2, #3, #22, #21] Capital hardware procurement: helicopters/airborne assets (capital), perimeter sensors/UAVs/radar/secure comms procurement, specialized monitoring instruments, and secure data/evidence hardware recovery.

Initial Research And Lab Setup $30.0M

[#12] Initial intensive physics investigation and containment R&D equipment/hire-phase costs.

Pr Cover One Time $30.0M

[#16] Upfront costs for large-scale PR/cover-up campaigns, paid content, and creation of cover entities/NGOs.

Emergency Medical Acute $25.0M

[#7] Acute-phase emergency medical field-hospital, medevac and trauma response costs.

Transport One Time $25.0M

[#20] One-time fleet/transport procurement, heavy lift and local road-repair associated with debris/equipment movement.

Initial Mtf Deployment One Time $25.0M

[#23] Initial intensive 1–2 year multi-team deployment surge funding (equipment, deployment logistics).

Replacement Training $17.0M

[#11] Recruitment and training costs to replace ~57 deceased Foundation specialists.

Amnestic Administration Initial $9.0M

[#5] Initial mass amnestic administration and clinical follow-up for ~1,500 non-Foundation personnel.

Accelerator Rebuild Option $0

[#26] Option to rebuild comparable accelerator capability noted; set to $0 here (not chosen in baseline plan) but could be $5B–$15B if elected.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $89.5M/yr

Logistics And Transport $30.0M/yr

[#2, #20, #19, #23] Recurring airborne/mobile patrol operations, fleet/vehicle maintenance, fuel, road repair and ongoing deployment-support costs for MTF/scientific teams.

Staff Wages $20.0M/yr

[#1] Perimeter security staffing (continuous guards, supervisors, armorers): estimated ~250 staff at ~$80k all-in average.

Research And Monitoring $19.0M/yr

[#12, #13, #22, #3] Ongoing physics investigation, environmental monitoring (air/soil/water), specialized monitoring sensors and sensor/network maintenance/comm costs.

Facilities Maintenance $4.0M/yr

[#4, #27] Upkeep of physical barriers, checkpoints, fencing, road closures and long-term exclusion-zone land management/legal/title maintenance.

Cover Story And Legal $4.0M/yr

[#16] Ongoing PR and legal liaison expenses to manage public narrative and government relations.

Psychological Services $4.0M/yr

[#24] Long-term trauma counseling and PTSD programs for survivors, witnesses and personnel.

Followup Medical Care $3.0M/yr

[#7] Ongoing medical follow-up care and rehabilitation for survivors and responders.

Survivor Support Recurring $3.0M/yr

[#15] Ongoing stipends, housing support and cover operations for displaced persons.

Media Monitoring $2.0M/yr

[#29] Continuous media/social monitoring and forensic takedown operations.

Amnestic Administration Recurring $500K/yr

[#5] Ongoing amnestic administration and follow-up for non-Foundation personnel (~100/yr).

Supplies And Consumables $0/yr

[]

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $89.5M/yr

64.0% probability / year

Normal year of steady containment, monitoring, staff wages, routine maintenance and ongoing research with no major new incidents.

no_major_breach steady_operations routine_incidents_only

🚨 Minor Incident $139.5M/yr

30.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline

Localized containment breach or media/legal flare-up requiring elevated response (short-term deployments, expanded amnestics and PR surge).

small_breach_or_leak localized_public_exposure limited_deployment

🚨 Major Breach $889.5M/yr

5.0% probability / year +$800.0M vs baseline

Significant containment failure or discovery leading to large-scale remediation, mass-deployment, major legal settlements and extended reconstruction/debris removal.

major_infrastructure_collapse large_media_exposure mass_legal_action

🚨 Full Rebuild Decision $10.1B/yr

1.0% probability / year +$10.0B vs baseline

Executive decision to rebuild or replace accelerator capability at LHC-scale, triggering multi-billion-dollar construction and program costs.

strategic_rebuild_choice long-term_program_commitment

👥 Personnel 250 total

Role	Count	Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent	230	[#1] Frontline perimeter security personnel estimated from staff_wages (majority of the 200–300 staff)
Supervisory Staff / Site Security Leads	15	[#1] Supervisory cadre included in perimeter staffing estimate
Armorer / Logistics	5	[#1] Armorers and immediate logistics support included in perimeter staffing estimate

📋 Confidence Notes

Detailed analyst notes provide many line items and ranges, but estimates involve wide ranges and large strategic choices (rebuild vs abandon, settlement aggressiveness) that materially change totals; therefore medium confidence.

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