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SCP-6331 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-6331
Expected annual
$1.6M
One-time setup
$2.3M
Annual recurring
$1.5M
Personnel
4
Initial containment and research buildout require moderate one-time investment (~$2.27M) for secure vaults, lab setup and contingency reserves; ongoing annual costs (~$1.50M/yr) are driven by staffing, regional monitoring, surveillance and optional long-term R&D.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.3M
Litigation Reserve $500K
[#18] One-time litigation reserve / settlement fund for potential civil suits (set-aside contingency).
Contingency Emergency Fund $500K
[#25] Reserved emergency response fund for rapid mass-exposure/quarantine/large-scale recall activation.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $408K
[#7, #8, #9, #21] GC-MS/LC-MS/NMR or contracted-equivalent purchase option (#7), EMG/video/audio testing rigs (#8), soundproof single-subject testing suite/recording gear (#9), and initial sample-archiving supplies/aliquots (#21 initial).
Robotic Systems $250K
[#15] One-time purchase/installation of robotic/remote handling manipulators to reduce single-human exposure.
Facilities $200K
[#1] Secure storage vault upgrade (soundproofing, two-person interlock, CCTV, access control) — mid-range construction/install estimate.
Initial Buyback $200K
[#5] Initial covert buyback / retail inventory removal & recall operations (initial, scalable campaign).
Initial Cover Story And Pr $100K
[#17] One-time costs for crafting/disseminating recall narrative, store compensation, NDAs and initial PR/legal setup.
Initial Human Subject Overhead $50K
[#11] One-time human subject protocol overhead: IRB-like setup, medical monitoring baseline, consent infrastructure and counseling setup.
Equipment $32K
[#2, #16] On-site chemical cabinet and sealed containment (#2) plus initial secure audio/data storage/server purchase (#16).
Emergency Medical Stockpile $30K
[#12] Initial emergency meds, training, IV/O2/analgesics stock and specialty-treatment readiness.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.5M/yr
Research And Monitoring $630K/yr
[#4, #20, #22] MTF Mu-5 regional monitoring/deployments and covert ops in two metro areas (#4), ongoing city surveillance/secret shoppers and camera placement (#20), and staff psychological screening/memetic monitoring (#22).
Staff Wages $430K/yr
[#3, #10] Recurring wages: dedicated research staff & technicians (#10) plus additional staffing/overtime to enforce two-person rule and handling (#3).
Research Program $300K/yr
[#23] Optional long-term R&D program investigating pathophysiology and potential benign derivatives/commercialization (optional scale-up chosen at modest mid-range).
Cover Story And Legal $60K/yr
[#17, #19] Ongoing cover-story/PR and local liaison/covert ops costs: continued reimbursements, small-scale recalls, and liaison/discretionary funds (#17 initial covered one-time; #19 recurring liaison).
Robotic Maintenance $20K/yr
[#15] Annual maintenance, programming and service contracts for robotic/remote handling systems.
Human Subject Overhead $20K/yr
[#11] Recurring human-subject protocol overhead: medical monitoring, counseling, emergency-response readiness for volunteers.
Logistics And Transport $15K/yr
[#6] Secure transport and evidence-chain recurring costs per-year (courier, unmarked runs, secure packaging) based on expected recovery frequency.
Supplies And Consumables $10K/yr
[#13, #14] PPE, spill kits, absorbents (#13) and hazardous waste disposal/incineration fees (#14).
Medical Stockpile Restock $10K/yr
[#12] Annual restock and refresher training for emergency medical supplies and specific antidotes/interventions.
Facilities Maintenance $9K/yr
[#16, #21, #24] Ongoing server/storage maintenance & hosting (#16), sample-archive maintenance (#21 recurring), incremental HVAC/utilities for vaults and lab (#24).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.5M/yr
82.0% probability / year
Normal year with standard containment, monitoring, routine recoveries and ongoing research without major incidents.
no_large_recall routine_recoveries no_mass_exposure
🚨 Minor Incident $1.8M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$300K vs baseline
Localized appearance of product requiring an accelerated buyback/recall and short-term spike in MTF/PR activity.
localized_retail_spread small_consumer_recall increased_MTF_deployments
🚨 Major Breach $4.5M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
Widespread distribution discovered or a containment breach triggering mass-recall, emergency medical deployments and litigation/settlement costs.
national_distribution_detected mass-exposure large-scale_litigation
👥 Personnel 4 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 2 Senior/junior research staff running chemical, neurophysiology, and memetic studies. Part of recurring research staff budget [#10].
Research Technician 1 Lab technician for instrumentation, sample handling and archive maintenance. Included in research staff wages [#10].
Administrative/Containment Handler 1 Additional staff/O/T to enforce two-person rule and assist with secure handling/transport; costed under two-person rule operational cost [#3].
📋 Confidence Notes
Line items and major cost drivers are well-identified, but wide ranges in market penetration, frequency of recoveries and litigation exposure introduce substantial uncertainty; estimates use mid-range assumptions.
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