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SCP-6338 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-6338
Expected annual
$6.7M
One-time setup
$18.7M
Annual recurring
$6.6M
Personnel
9
One-time capital to build/prepare an Antarctic plinth and transparent containment, plus reserves, is ~ $18.7M; main recurring drivers are staffing, logistics/resupply, power/fuel and rapid-response readiness totaling ~ $6.59M/yr.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $18.7M
Facilities $12.0M
[#3, #4, #5, #16, #25] Concrete pillar, winterization/sealing, site infrastructure (habitat modules, medical/comm shelters), perimeter structural work and future decommissioning/remediation costs.
Contingency Reserve Relocation Recovery $3.0M
[#19] Set-aside contingency reserve for unexpected relocation/search & recovery operations (aircraft, field teams, temporary camps).
Equipment $1.4M
[#1, #6, #7, #8, #9, #15, #17, #24] Reinforced transparent containment box, generator set (capex), HVAC units (capex), sensor suite (capex), satellite/comms hardware (capex), security hardware (capex), remote manipulators/gloveboxes (capex), IT/archival hardware (capex).
Insurance And Replacement Reserve $1.2M
[#21] Budgetary reserve for replacement of containment glass, pillar remediation and equipment after damage (non-commercial 'insurance' fund).
Incident Response Initial $550K
[#20] Initial incident response / PR / legal cover-up setup (one-time establishment of rapid legal/PR contract lines, initial retainer costs).
Transportation And Installation $275K
[#2] Heavy-lift air/sea transport, specialized rigging/installation to pillar top and packaging for thermal shock during Antarctic deployment.
Airspace Initial Setup $250K
[#12] Initial airspace/no-fly sensors and legal/diplomatic setup (ADS-B receivers/small radar + initial liaison costs).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $6.6M/yr
Staff Wages $2.0M/yr
[#10] Year-round rotations and hazard pay for on-site operations, security, maintenance, medic and science staff (salaries, benefits, rotation transport).
Logistics And Transport $1.2M/yr
[#13] Regular flights/ship resupply, personnel transport, emergency medevac contracts, spare parts logistics and Antarctic resupply operations.
Rapid Response Readiness $1.2M/yr
[#11] Maintain on-call rapid-recovery team capability and airborne asset readiness (standby aircraft/charter partnerships and team training).
Power And Fuel $708K/yr
[#6, #7] Recurring diesel fuel, generator maintenance and HVAC energy/ops in Antarctic conditions.
Research And Monitoring $418K/yr
[#8, #9, #24, #26, #18] Ongoing sensor/data transmission and monitoring ops, satellite bandwidth, IT hosting/backups, public/civil intel monitoring, and small annual research/ethics oversight budget.
Cover Story And Legal $325K/yr
[#12, #20] Ongoing diplomatic liaison/NOTAM administration and recurring PR/legal/cover-up costs to handle civilian sightings and treaty negotiations.
Medical And Evac $250K/yr
[#22] On-site medic, telemedicine, medevac contracts and psychological support costs for isolated personnel.
Waste Management And Compliance $175K/yr
[#14] Treatment, transport and off-continent disposal of human and hazardous waste to meet Antarctic Treaty obligations.
Personnel Vetting And Training $110K/yr
[#23] Background checks, polygraphs, security and Antarctic safety training, ongoing staff vetting and rotation training.
Containment Tooling Maintenance $55K/yr
[#17] Maintenance and periodic recertification for remote manipulators, drones and gloveboxes certified for cold operation.
Facilities Maintenance $33K/yr
[#15, #16] Ongoing maintenance of perimeter/access systems and periodic security hardware replacement/audits.
Supplies And Consumables $15K/yr
[#27] Small consumables: spare seals, fasteners, cleaning supplies, desiccants, batteries, replacement bulbs.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $6.6M/yr
82.0% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with steady operations, routine maintenance and scheduled resupply only.
normal_resupply routine_maintenance scheduled_staff_rotation
🚨 Minor Incident $6.9M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$350K vs baseline
Local equipment failure or small containment support incident requiring emergency repairs and temporary extra logistics.
HVAC_failure generator_repair sensor_replacement
🚨 Major Breach $9.6M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
Unauthorized access or removal requiring large-scale search/recovery, equipment replacement, and intensified PR/legal response.
unauthorised_removal large_search_and_recovery major_pr_legal_effort
🚨 Political Exposure $7.6M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Diplomatic incident or public exposure forcing extended legal negotiation, cover-story operation, and heightened monitoring.
civilian_exposure treaty_dispute extended_legal_negotiations
👥 Personnel 9 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 3 [#10] On-site security coverage across rotations; includes Arctic hazard pay.
Research Scientist 2 [#10, #18] Research oversight and occasional experiments; also handles monitoring/data review.
Engineer / Maintenance 2 [#6, #7, #17] Mechanical/electrical techs for generators, HVAC, remote manipulators and regular maintenance.
Medical Officer 1 [#22] On-site medic and telemedicine liaison for isolated personnel.
Administrative Staff 1 [#10, #12, #20] Site manager/administrator handling logistics, liaison, NOTAMs and cover-story coordination.
📋 Confidence Notes
Many line items are tightly scoped (pillar, box, transport, recurring fuel/staffing) so mid-range estimates are reasonable; Antarctic logistics, chosen posture (integrate vs standalone) and the tail risk of recovery/breach create multi-million-dollar uncertainty, so overall confidence is medium.
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