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SCP-6489 Unknown ? low confidence
SCP-6489
Expected annual
$36.3M
One-time setup
$17.0M
Annual recurring
$36.1M
Personnel
16
Estimated one-time startup costs are roughly $17.0M driven by facility build-out, research lab setup, and contingency reserves; recurring annual costs are roughly $36.1M driven primarily by per-case neurosurgical procedures, staff salaries, and per-case diagnostics/consumables.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $17.0M
Rough Order Of Magnitude Startup $4.0M
[#25] Analyst rough-order-of-magnitude startup summary included as an explicit line ($2M–$6M midpoint).
Mass Event Reserve $3.0M
[#23] Contingency for mass-event / escalation reserve (midpoint $1M–$5M).
Facilities $2.8M
[#1] Dedicated regional treatment clinic build-out (sterile OR, ICU beds, neuroradiology suite) estimate (midpoint of $1.5M–$4.0M).
Equipment $2.5M
[#4, #9, #21, #22] MRI purchase option ($2.25M midpoint), cryostorage/freezer equipment (~$62.5k), decontamination equipment (~$87.5k), IT/hardware setup (~$87.5k).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.9M
[#2, #6, #14, #15] Secure invertebrate containment & research lab build-out ($750k midpoint), pathology/genomics startup (~$450k), entomology equipment/consulting (~$150k), animal-model study setup (~$500k).
Antidote Preclinical R And D $1.2M
[#16] Antidote/therapy early discovery/preclinical R&D (midpoint $500k–$2M).
Settlement Reserve $1.1M
[#18] Contingency settlement/reserve (midpoint $250k–$2M).
Ai Development $325K
[#13] AI/automated radiology triage tool development (midpoint $150k–$500k).
Surveillance Setup $150K
[#12] Public health surveillance / radiology-report monitoring software and integration (midpoint $50k–$250k).
Front Organization Setup $60K
[#17] Initial front (NNS) public-facing/cover setup (midpoint $20k–$100k).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $36.1M/yr
Neurosurgical Removal Per Case Total $23.8M/yr
[#3] Neurosurgical removal clinical costs: median ~$75k per case × 317 confirmed cases = $23,775,000.
Rog First Year Estimate $4.0M/yr
[#25] Analyst rough-order-of-magnitude first-year recurring estimate included explicitly ($2M–$6M midpoint).
Staff Wages $2.3M/yr
[#7] Clinical operations salaries (2 neurosurgeons, 1 neuroradiologist, 4 OR nurses/techs, 2 lab techs, 1 entomologist, 1 program manager, 4 security, 1 admin) — midpoint staffing total estimate.
Supplies And Consumables $1.9M/yr
[#8] Consumables and PPE for surgical cases and lab work (midpoint of $634k–$3.17M for 317 cases).
Diagnostic Imaging Scans $888K/yr
[#4] MRI scan fees: 2MRIs/patient × 317 patients = 634 scans; midpoint per-scan cost yields ~$888,500/year (range $507k–$1.27M).
Logistics And Transport $650K/yr
[#11] Mobile response team contracts and patient transport base costs (~$100k–$300k) plus per-transport ops for ~150 transports (midpoint ~$450k) combined.
Cover Story And Legal $488K/yr
[#17, #18] Communications/cover operations (~$187.5k midpoint) plus legal retainer/defense (~$300k midpoint).
Research And Monitoring $470K/yr
[#6, #15, #24] Ongoing pathology/follow-up studies and reagents (~$200k), animal-model ongoing costs (~$175k), annual epidemiology & reporting (~$95k).
Lumbar Puncture And Csf Analysis $317K/yr
[#5] CSF sampling and specialized assays (~$1k average × 317 cases).
Antidote Ongoing Development And Stockpile $300K/yr
[#16] Ongoing development/stockpile maintenance and potential small-scale clinical work/stockpiling (~$100k–$500k/year equivalent assumed).
Insurance And Risk Mitigation $240K/yr
[#19] Insurance for facility, staff, malpractice (~$80k–$400k/year midpoint).
Animal Model Recurring $175K/yr
[#15] Ongoing in vivo study costs (~$50k–$300k/year).
Mri Maintenance $150K/yr
[#4] MRI machine maintenance/year if purchased (~$150k/year).
Public Health Monitoring $130K/yr
[#12] Ongoing radiology-report monitoring analysts and software maintenance (~$60k–$200k/year).
Facilities Maintenance $75K/yr
[#20] Energy, HVAC and utilities premium for containment areas and basic facility maintenance (midpoint $30k–$120k).
Ai Maintenance And Hosting $65K/yr
[#13] Hosting, updates, and validation for imaging classifier (~$30k–$100k/year).
Sop Refreshers And Audits $50K/yr
[#10] Ongoing SOP refresher training and certification/audits (~$20k–$80k/year).
Entomology Recurring $50K/yr
[#14] Consumables, SEM access and consulting for entomology (~$20k–$80k/year).
It Security And Maintenance $45K/yr
[#22] Secure hosting, audits, and IT security maintenance (~$15k–$75k/year).
Specimen Storage And Disposal Fees $30K/yr
[#9] Long-term specimen storage, cataloguing, and disposal recurring fees (~$10k–$50k/year).
Decontamination And Sterilization $30K/yr
[#21] Contracts, consumables and readiness (~$10k–$50k/year).
Contingency Reserve Replenishment $0/yr
[#23] Mass-event / escalation reserve is modeled as a one-time liquid reserve; no routine annual replenishment assumed here.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $36.1M/yr
93.9% probability / year
Normal year: central clinic and research program operating, scheduled surgeries and surveillance with no major containment incidents.
routine_surgeries_and_follow-up regular_surveillance_and_research
🚨 Minor Incident $37.6M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Single small containment breach or an unexpectedly high-complication patient requiring extra legal/PR response and limited surge capacity.
small_local_breach unexpected_surgical_complication one_off_settlement_or_pr_response
🚨 Major Breach $44.1M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$8.0M vs baseline
Regional escalation requiring temporary hospital expansion, mass transports, large legal settlements and emergency research scale-up.
regional_outbreak surge_in_cases_requiring_expansion
🚨 Political Exposure $56.1M/yr
0.1% probability / year +$20.0M vs baseline
Major public/political exposure leading to litigation, federal investigations, long-term relocation of operations, and extensive settlements.
information_leak political_or_regulatory_action
👥 Personnel 16 total
Role Count Notes
Neurosurgeon 2 [#7] Core surgical team for removal procedures; 2 FTE assumed.
Neuroradiologist 1 [#7] Imaging interpretation and interventional planning; 1 FTE assumed.
OR Nurse / Technician 4 [#7] Operating room nursing/tech staff to support neurosurgery and procedures.
Lab Technician 2 [#7] Lab processing, assays, and specimen handling.
Entomologist / Arachniologist 1 [#7, #14] Specialist for organism identification, containment and research.
Program Manager 1 [#7] Administrative and program coordination for the clinic/response program.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 4 [#7] Site security, patient transfer escorts, and chain-of-custody enforcement.
Administrative Staff 1 [#7] Scheduling, billing/cover payments, and liaison duties.
📋 Confidence Notes
SCP-6489 is anomalous with many uncertain biological and legal failure modes; estimates use midpoints of broad ranges and include explicit reserves, so uncertainty remains high.
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