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SCP-677 Safe ? low confidence
SCP-677
Expected annual
$2.9M
One-time setup
$302.1M
Annual recurring
$1.3M
Personnel
8.2
Initial one-time capital (lab, transport, contingencies) ~ $302M driven almost entirely by an optional early-retrieval mission; baseline annual recurring operations (monitoring, staff, readiness, legal/insurance) ~ $1.33M/yr with occasional per-event response costs in the low hundreds of thousands.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $302.1M
Early Retrieval Mission $300.0M
[#23] Optional one-time capital for an interplanetary retrieval mission (probe/return). Represents a policy/capital decision; included as a possible one-time cost.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $650K
[#9, #10] Precision mechanical/dismantling lab outfitting and initial materials-characterisation research campaign.
Evacuation Reserve $500K
[#15] One-time reserve for small-to-medium evacuation contingency planning and immediate response funds.
Contingency Reserve $500K
[#24] General contingency/escalation reserve for unforeseen complications, legal issues, or damage claims.
Rapid Deployment Retainer $200K
[#5] One-time cost to establish/contract a rapid deployment/airlift retainer or initial setup for rapid-response transport capability.
Equipment $140K
[#6, #7, #22] Drones/field cache and portable gear, custom certified transport crate, communications hardware (sat phones, encrypted radios).
Facilities $80K
[#8, #12] Site locker upgrade and facility safety upgrades (environmental controls, intrusion detection, shock-absorbent flooring) one-time costs.
Protocol Development $45K
[#20] One-time development of containment SOPs, training materials, red-team exercises and documentation control.
Environmental Assessment Initial $20K
[#16] Initial post-recovery sampling and environmental testing reserve (baseline sample campaign).
Spring Inventory $5K
[#21] Initial lockbox/inventory for springs and tamper-evident seals.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.3M/yr
Staff Wages $770K/yr
[#3, #11, #19] Salaries + benefits/overhead for dedicated astrodynamics/data/PM team (~$270k), precision manipulator operators (~$300k), and dedicated site guards (~$200k).
Recovery Team Readiness $250K/yr
[#4] Recurring readiness/reserve pay, training and certifications for rapid-response recovery team (pilots, hazmat/UXO technicians, logistics).
Cover Story And Legal $160K/yr
[#13, #14, #17] Contracted legal/liaison budgets, basic public-affairs/cover monitoring, and insurance/reserve premiums (annual).
Research And Monitoring $65K/yr
[#1, #2, #10] Long-term telescope monitoring (~optical CCD time), periodic deep-space tracking campaigns (radar/ground-station passes), and ongoing follow-up studies/analyses.
Logistics And Transport $35K/yr
[#5, #18] Baseline allowance for per-move secure transfers and minimal yearly transport expenses; major charters counted in scenario/on-demand costs.
Facilities Maintenance $28K/yr
[#8, #12, #19, #22] Annual locker/site maintenance, periodic safety inspections, electronic monitoring and basic comms/data hosting maintenance.
Protocol Training $10K/yr
[#20] Annual SOP revisions, training refreshers and exercises.
Supplies And Consumables $6K/yr
[#6, #21] General consumables for recovery caches, tamper-evident seals, spring immobilizers and small annual replenishment.
Data Archival $5K/yr
[#22] Recurring encrypted data archival and hosting for orbital data and experiment logs.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.3M/yr
96.0% probability / year
Normal year: monitoring, staffing, readiness and routine maintenance only; no reentry/recovery event.
continuous monitoring no reentry event routine maintenance
🚨 Minor Reentry Event $1.7M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$370K vs baseline
Controlled/expected reentry occurs and field recovery is executed with standard search and recovery operations.
predicted reentry field recovery/search limited PR/legal work
🚨 Major Uncontrolled Reentry $5.5M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$4.2M vs baseline
Uncontrolled or populated-area impact requiring evacuations, large remediation, major legal/PR response and insurance payouts.
uncontrolled reentry populated impact large-scale remediation/evacuations
🚨 Early Retrieval Mission $301.3M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$300.0M vs baseline
Decision to mount an interplanetary retrieval mission (rendezvous and return) to retrieve SCP-677 before natural reentry.
policy decision to retrieve scientific/containment urgency availability of launch window
👥 Personnel 8.2 total
Role Count Notes
Astrodynamics Analyst 1 [#3] Full-time astrodynamicist for orbital prediction and modeling.
Data Analyst 1 [#3] Full-time data analyst for telescope/ground-station data reduction.
Project Manager / Admin (part-time) 0.2 [#3] Part-time project manager/administration support (0.2 FTE).
Precision Manipulator / Remote-Handling Operator 3 [#11] Skilled operators/engineers for dismantling and remote-handling.
Security Officer / Guard (Site storage) 3 [#19] Dedicated guards for locker rotation and site security.
📋 Confidence Notes
Ranges in the analyst notes are broad (especially for transport charters, evacuation, and an optional retrieval mission) and the object's unpredictable reentry/energy introduces large uncertainty — cost estimates are order-of-magnitude and policy-dependent.
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