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SCP-6781 Thaumiel ? low confidence
SCP-6781
Expected annual
$16.1M
One-time setup
$39.2M
Annual recurring
$15.7M
Personnel
92
Estimated initial one-time capital expenditure ≈ $39.2M driven primarily by vault construction, contingency and decommissioning reserves, and site stabilization; recurring operations ≈ $15.7M/year dominated by staff wages, logistics/transport, and power/maintenance.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $39.2M
Facilities $15.2M
[#6, #12, #20, #18, #23] Cave stabilization, RAISA Vault structural construction, shore/dock infrastructure, initial waste-containment facility, and archaeological remediation (lower-end estimates chosen for baseline buildout).
Decommissioning Reserve $10.0M
[#24] One-time set-aside for eventual decommissioning/environmental remediation planning.
Equipment $8.0M
[#3, #5, #7, #8, #9, #14, #15, #19] Diesel generators & tanks (incl. installation), satellite ground hardware, geotechnical instrumentation, HVAC hardware, purchase of a medium utility vessel, hardened airlock/sensor systems, clinic equipment, and archive hardware.
Contingency Reserve $5.0M
[#22] One-time contingency / catastrophic response fund (lower-end recommended reserve).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $500K
[#13] Laboratory and research setup costs for initial instrumentation, sample prep, and baseline compute/sensor systems.
Permits And Land Use Negotiation $250K
[#17] One-time legal/permit/negotiation costs to secure federal land access and related agreements.
Onboarding And Clearances $200K
[#11] One-time onboarding costs: background checks, initial training/onboarding, clearance processing.
Cold Weather Initial Stock $50K
[#16] Initial stock of non-perishable food, cold-weather gear, survival caches.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $15.7M/yr
Staff Wages $9.8M/yr
[#1, #2, #10] Security personnel (site guards/supervisors), two rotating rapid-response/MTF-equivalent teams, and core on-site research/engineering/technical/administrative staff salaries (baseline headcount chosen from analyst ranges).
Facilities Maintenance $1.6M/yr
[#4, #8, #12, #20] Fuel and generator operations (remote diesel logistics), HVAC/maintenance, RAISA Vault maintenance, and shore/dock maintenance.
Logistics And Transport $1.0M/yr
[#9] Recurring chartering, helicopter/vessel flight hours, seasonal resupply logistics and transport operations.
Contingency Reserve Topup $1.0M/yr
[#22] Recommended annual top-up cadence to replenish contingency/catastrophic response reserve.
Research And Monitoring $850K/yr
[#7, #13, #14, #19] Geotechnical monitoring staffing & maintenance, recurring R&D budget, airlock/sensor calibration and testing, and archive/data hosting costs.
Supplies And Consumables $400K/yr
[#16, #21] Cold-weather consumables (replenishment, clothing) and specialized / shielding replacement materials.
Administration And Overhead $300K/yr
[#25] Cafeteria, living quarters maintenance, HR, small tools, office supplies, and facility administrative overhead.
Medical And Medevac $250K/yr
[#15] On-site medic staffing, trauma supplies, and medevac standby contracts.
Cover Story And Legal $150K/yr
[#17] Ongoing legal liaison, federal coordination, permits maintenance, and limited legitimate cover/PR activities.
Training And Certification $100K/yr
[#11] Recurring training, recertification, drills, and psychological screening costs.
Waste Management And Hazmat $100K/yr
[#18] Recurring hazardous waste disposal, monitoring, and spill response services.
Communications And Sat Lease $100K/yr
[#5] Recurring satellite uplink leases, hardened comms maintenance and ground-station operations.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $15.7M/yr
93.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; routine maintenance, staffing, and resupply only.
steady operations scheduled maintenance regular rotations
🚨 Minor Incident $16.7M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Localized containment or geotechnical event requiring short-term remediation, equipment replacement, and increased logistics/medical activity.
small cave collapse / localized structural damage minor containment breach requiring temporary lockdown
🚨 Major Breach $30.7M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$15.0M vs baseline
Significant containment/structural failure or large-scale incident requiring major reconstruction, extended operations, and large contingency drawdown.
large cave collapse or flooding major anomalous interaction requiring reconstruction and extended remediation
👥 Personnel 92 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / Site Security 12 [#1] 24/7 perimeter and internal security posts; lower-end headcount from analyst range.
MTF / Rapid Response Team 20 [#2] Two rotating specialized response teams (operators, techs, medics); lower-end staffing chosen.
Research Scientist / Archivist / Technician / Engineer 60 [#10] Core on-site RAISA Vault staff, technicians, systems engineers, and administrative personnel (baseline staffing).
📋 Confidence Notes
Large uncertainty in cave geometry, unknown preexisting infrastructure, optional subsea/fiber choices, and anomalous interactions make structural and contingency costs highly uncertain; analyst provided wide ranges so baseline uses conservative/lower-end choices.
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