SCP-6946 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-6946
Expected annual
$114.9M
One-time setup
$2.3B
Annual recurring
$106.2M
Personnel
120
Corrected estimate: Foundation one-time capital and program spend ≈ $2.275B (main driver: engineered island/trench + hardened facilities) and recurring operational spend ≈ $106.25M/yr (main drivers: personnel, platform maintenance, vessels/aviation, research). Systemic (non-Foundation) one-time economic impact of a Type-Black activation is modeled at ≈ $275B with recurring macroeconomic effects ≈ $5B/yr; this corrects the original report by moving catastrophic evacuation/economic losses out of Foundation operational budget and by itemizing all >$1B figures.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.3B
Facilities $1.1B
Detailed build-up (total = $1,100,000,000): 1) Artificial island construction, trench/dredging and seabed stabilization: $520,000,000 (heavy marine equipment charter/purchase, geotechnical surveys, cofferdams, piling, long-lead concrete and coastal engineering). 2) Offshore platform / fish-farm cover fabrication and access piers: $120,000,000 (steel, outfitting, moorings). 3) Hardened shore-based command and redundant ops centre (fit-out, secure comms, backup power): $110,000,000. 4) Containment vaults / thaumaturgical chambers and environmental control for anomalous components: $95,000,000. 5) Training/mock-up facilities and simulation range: $45,000,000. 6) Major remediation and initial stabilization works (storm hardening, corrosion protection systems): $80,000,000. 7) Long-lead project management, permitting, and secrecy premium/contingency (20%): $130,000,000. These line-items are drawn from engineering cost ranges in the analyst notes and summed to the facility total; facility costs exceed $1B and are therefore explicitly itemized here.
Insurance Reserve $500.0M
Sovereign self-insurance / catastrophic-liability capital reserve (kept as Foundation internal reserve to pay indemnities, replacement of classified assets, and immediate large claims). Set below $1B but large to provide a meaningful buffer.
Endowment Reserve $300.0M
Capital endowment intended to fund perpetual baseline monitoring and inflation buffer. Assumes a conservative real-return draw to underwrite multi-century monitoring and contingency draws; sized to reduce recurring budget pressure long-term.
Equipment $180.0M
Procurement and installation of physical hardware: 1) Maritime fleet uplift (3–6 patrol craft, 1 supply vessel procurement/refit): $65,000,000. 2) Rotary-wing assets (2–4 helicopters or equivalent OR long-term leases and support equipment): $45,000,000. 3) ROV/AUV and subsea inspection launch/recovery systems (2–4 units + tooling): $28,000,000. 4) High-fidelity seismometers/hydrophones, sensor telemetry uplinks and cabling: $8,000,000. 5) Power generation and critical UPS/battery banks for platform/island: $8,000,000. 6) Specialized paraweapon test infrastructure and handling gear (range/test fixtures, shielding): $18,000,000. 7) Initial PPE/occult-countermeasure kits and specialized tooling: $8,000,000. Sum = $180M.
Decommissioning Fabrication Reserve $150.0M
One-time reserve to fabricate/assemble bespoke components for a major decommissioning campaign (paraweapon construction, specialized delivery systems, test charges, and hardened handling equipment). This is capital spend intended to support a single large-scale attempt and associated test infrastructure.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $25.0M
Secure lab buildout for anomalous-component handling and neutralization testing, including environmental controls, small-scale thaumaturgical workspaces, high-security storage and bespoke instrumentation. Scope assumes one dedicated facility adjacent to shore command.
Compensation Buyouts $20.0M
One-time buyouts, long-term leases or community compensation for displaced fishermen/island lease payments and to establish the fish-farm cover in local communities.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $106.2M/yr
Insurance Reserve Replenishment $20.0M/yr
Annual top-up to maintain the catastrophic-liability reserve target following any draws or inflationary erosion.
Staff Wages $16.2M/yr
Loaded personnel costs for total staff (120 FTEs) including salaries, benefits, hazard pay and rotation premium (see personnel breakdown). Built from role-level loaded averages used in personnel section: security/MTF agents (60 @ ~$100k loaded), research scientists (15 @ ~$150k), engineers (20 @ ~$120k), medical officers (6 @ ~$90k), pilots/aircrew (5 @ ~$120k), administrative (4 @ ~$100k), maritime crew/deckhands (10 @ ~$70k); plus 25% overhead for training, pensions, and shift/rotation premiums.
Facilities Maintenance $14.0M/yr
Ongoing maintenance for island/platform/trench stabilization, corrosion control, scheduled major overhauls, and shore command operations. Value reflects heavy marine maintenance and periodic major repairs for sea-facing infrastructure.
Research And Monitoring $12.0M/yr
Sensor calibration, ROV/AUV operations, anomalous-component research teams, environmental/biological monitoring for the fish-farm cover, classified data hosting and modeling costs, and contracted scientific studies.
Logistics And Transport $12.0M/yr
Vessel and aviation O&M (fuel, spare parts, crewing, docking), supply runs, medevac readiness and transport rotations associated with the offshore platform and contingency movements.
Decommissioning And R And D Program $10.0M/yr
Recurring program budget for staged decommissioning attempts, iterative paraweapon R&D, test campaigns, fabrication of replacement control systems and associated trial logistics. This funds iterative effort rather than one-off fabrication reserve above.
Endowment Draw $5.0M/yr
Planned annual draw from the endowment to subsidize baseline monitoring and contingency programs; reduces direct recurring budget pressure.
Evacuation Planning $3.0M/yr
Foundation-funded contingency planning, modeling and liaison exercises with civil authorities for Type-Black scenarios (planning and drills only; large-scale evacuation is systemic and not counted as Foundation spend).
Compensation And Mitigation $3.0M/yr
Annual payments, lease renewals and socioeconomic mitigation to affected local populations (fishermen, local businesses) to maintain cover and reduce local friction.
Cover Story And Legal $2.0M/yr
Baseline legal/diplomatic engagements, maintenance of shell entities, routine records/misinformation upkeep and minor covert payments associated with the fish-farm cover story.
Paraweapon Maintenance $2.0M/yr
Routine maintenance, safe storage and limited testing for high-energy / paraweapon assets used in decommissioning research and trials.
Communications Ops $2.0M/yr
Sustained communications-security, limited covert information operations and cover-story maintenance at an operational (not strategic concealment) level.
External Contractors $2.0M/yr
Specialist contracting for metallurgy, deep-sea engineering, occult consulting and episodic external lab access under strict compartmentalization.
Civil Rights Legal Fund $1.0M/yr
Legal counsel and settlement reserve for discrimination/exclusion-zone litigation risk arising from the operational ban on persons of Japanese descent within 5 km.
Screening Operations $800K/yr
Biometric checkpoint maintenance, interdiction team support and administration of exemptions and travel screening for the exclusion zone.
Psychological Support $700K/yr
Counseling, debriefing and rotation-related support for personnel exposed to long-duration anomalous operations.
Supplies And Consumables $500K/yr
PPE, HAZMAT consumables, pressure-rated tooling consumables, and routine expendables for labs and platform crews.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $106.2M/yr
82.0% probability / year
Routine year: containment posture maintained, scheduled maintenance, monitoring, and ongoing decommissioning R&D with no major incidents.
routine_ops scheduled_maintenance no_breach
🚨 Minor Incident $116.2M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
Localized containment incident or failed/restricted decommissioning attempt requiring emergency repairs, short investigations and modest legal/compensation payouts.
localized_breach sensor_alert minor_structural_damage
🚨 Major Breach $306.2M/yr
2.9% probability / year +$200.0M vs baseline
Significant containment failure or large-scale decommissioning operation causing loss of assets, major repairs, replacement procurement and substantial legal/compensation costs.
extended_movement platform_damage failed_decommission_attempt
🚨 Catastrophic Activation $1.5B/yr
0.1% probability / year +$1.4B vs baseline
Type-Black activation (SCP-6946 mobilizes at destructive scale) that triggers mass regional evacuation and multi-decade economic damage.
full_activation mass_evacuation regional_catastrophe
👥 Personnel 120 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 60 Platform and maritime security teams, MTF rotations and interdiction personnel; assumed loaded cost ~$100k per FTE/year (includes hazard pay and rotation premiums).
Research Scientist 15 Paratheory researchers, anomalous-component researchers and modelers; assumed loaded cost ~$150k per FTE/year.
Engineer / Maintenance 20 Structural, marine, ROV/AUV and legacy-component engineers; assumed loaded cost ~$120k per FTE/year.
Medical Officer 6 Offshore medics and field-hospital staff; assumed loaded cost ~$90k per FTE/year.
Pilot / Aircrew 5 Rotary-wing pilots and aviation crew for transport, medevac and aerial surveillance; assumed loaded cost ~$120k per FTE/year.
Administrative Staff 4 Shore command, liaison, legal-administration and cover-story administration; assumed loaded cost ~$100k per FTE/year.
Maritime Crew / Deckhands 10 Crewing for patrol boats, supply vessels and routine at-sea logistics; assumed loaded cost ~$70k per FTE/year.
📋 Confidence Notes
This re-evaluation corrected the previous report by (a) moving catastrophic evacuation and large GDP/property losses to the systemic_economic_impact bucket (those are not Foundation expenditures), (b) itemizing all >$1B Foundation figures (facilities), and (c) explicitly itemizing the Foundation's realistic one-year spend in a catastrophic activation (1.5B) while keeping the truly systemic damages in a separate bucket. Remaining uncertainty stems from volatility of decommissioning outcomes, adversarial insider risk (as demonstrated in the article), and long-run political decisions about Foundation/state cost-sharing; these drive the medium confidence rating.
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