SCP-6991 — SCP-6991 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-6991 Keter ~ medium confidence

SCP-6991

Expected annual

$80.0M

One-time setup

$504.0M

Annual recurring

$75.3M

Personnel

251

Initial capital expenditure is large (~$504M) driven by land acquisition, construction of three secure field sites, high-containment lab buildout and major geotechnical sealing; recurring costs are substantial (~$75.3M/yr) led by security & staffing, capital replacement and ongoing monitoring/operations.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $504.0M

Facilities $305.0M

[#1, #3, #12] Land acquisition, construction of three adjacent secure field sites (living quarters, garages, helipads, secure labs) and initial geotechnical entrance sealing/structural reinforcement.

Initial Research And Lab Setup $147.5M

[#4, #18] High-containment lab buildout (BSL-3/BSL-4 infrastructure, waste systems) and purchase of sequencing/cryostorage equipment for initial research setup.

Equipment $34.0M

[#8, #10] Surveillance hardware purchase (sensors, seismic arrays, drones, cameras) and vehicles & aircraft purchase (helicopters, fixed-wing, ground vehicles).

Emergency Contingency Reserve $12.5M

[#22] Establishment of an emergency contingency fund / rapid reaction reserve to be kept available for large-scale responses and compensation.

Energy Generation Microgrid $4.0M

[#23] On-site energy generation microgrid and power redundancy setup (gensets, solar, batteries, wiring).

Data Management Systems $1.0M

[#24] Hardened data centers / secure communications systems initial purchase and deployment.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $75.3M/yr

Capital Replacement $27.5M/yr

[#28] Capital replacement & depreciation reserve for vehicles, aircraft, sensors, freezers and lab equipment (annual reserve ~5–10% of capex).

Staff Wages $16.8M/yr

[#5, #6, #7] Security staffing (24/7 guards, patrols, response units), senior command & scientific payroll (site directors, senior scientists), and operational scientific staffing & lab technicians.

Cover Story And Legal $4.0M/yr

[#20] Legal, PR and cover-story budget to maintain plausible public narrative and manage legal risks.

Logistics And Transport $3.0M/yr

[#11] Aviation & vehicle operations recurring costs (fuel, maintenance, pilots/crews, hangar fees, ground vehicle fuel/tires).

Entrance Monitoring $3.0M/yr

[#13] Ongoing entrance monitoring & rapid-response sealing budget (geotechnical teams, localized sealing, stabilization responses).

Long Term Research And Development $3.0M/yr

[#30] Long-term R&D into large-scale containment, geotechnical closure projects and population/control research (multi-year programs).

Biosecurity $2.5M/yr

[#17] Biosecurity operations & lab consumables (PPE, disinfectants, autoclave cycles, waste handling consumables).

Surveillance Maintenance $2.2M/yr

[#9] Surveillance subscriptions & maintenance (satellite imagery licenses, drone ops, sensor upkeep, replacement batteries, comms).

Covert Payments $1.8M/yr

[#21] Covert operations and local official compensation (informants, hush payments, bribery to maintain covert approvals).

Veterinary $1.6M/yr

[#16] Veterinary care, species husbandry and captive facilities recurring costs (diets, quarantine, medicines, husbandry research).

Staging And Crowd Control $1.5M/yr

[#14] 'Natural disaster' staging & crowd control operations, cover operations budget for staged avalanches/landslides and suppression operations.

Wildlife Control $1.2M/yr

[#15] Wildlife control and containment operations (trapping, corrals, sterilization/relocation programs).

International Liaison $1.2M/yr

[#29] International liaison & diplomatic contingency (foreign legal representation, covert diplomatic engagement).

Sequencing Consumables $1.0M/yr

[#18] Consumables for sequencing, cold-chain logistics, reagents, LN2, freezer maintenance and specimen preservation recurring costs.

Amnestic Program $1.0M/yr

[#19] Amnestic program recurring costs (drugs, medical teams, mobile kits, aftercare monitoring).

Land Payments $900K/yr

[#2] Ongoing landowner/municipal payments, stipends to local communities, payments to guides/porters and access easements.

Hazardous Waste $800K/yr

[#25] Hazardous waste disposal and environmental remediation (incineration, chemical neutralization, compliant transport/disposal).

Energy Operations $650K/yr

[#23] Recurring fuel and maintenance costs for on-site generators and microgrid upkeep.

Personnel Health $650K/yr

[#26] Personnel health, vaccinations, insurance premiums, psychological support, pre-employment screening.

Training Drills $500K/yr

[#27] Training, drills and exercise program (multi-agency breach drills, geotechnical training, amnestic deployment exercises).

Data Operations $400K/yr

[#24] Ongoing secure communications, encrypted comms operations, cyber security and data management operations.

Facilities Maintenance $0/yr

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Supplies And Consumables $0/yr

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Research And Monitoring $0/yr

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⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $75.3M/yr

74.0% probability / year

Normal year with routine monitoring, maintenance, staff wages and no major containment incidents.

no_new_entrances routine_operations standard_research_activity

🚨 Minor Incident $80.3M/yr

20.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline

Localized breach/entrance formation requiring geotechnical response, extra sealing, short-term increased security and cover operations.

new_small_entrance localized_fauna_escape targeted_sealing_operations

🚨 Major Breach $110.3M/yr

5.0% probability / year +$35.0M vs baseline

Significant containment breach requiring large-scale sealing, extended rapid-response deployments, mass amnestic operations and major legal/cover expenditures.

multiple_entrances sustained_fauna_migration large_scale_geotechnical_work

🚨 Catastrophic Breach $275.3M/yr

1.0% probability / year +$200.0M vs baseline

Catastrophic, sustained failure of containment with mass evacuations, full militarization, major reconstruction and international exposure requiring extraordinary spending.

mountain_wide_collapse widespread_civilian_exposure international_incident

👥 Personnel 251 total

Role	Count	Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent	150	[#5] 24/7 perimeter guards, roving patrols and rapid reaction personnel derived from security staffing estimates.
Site Director / Executive Staff	3	[#6] Three site directors managing adjacent sites as specified.
Research Scientist / Senior Scientist	20	[#6] Senior scientific personnel (geology, ecology, paleobiology, BSL specialists) forming the senior research cadre.
Research Technician / Lab Technician	50	[#7] Operational lab technicians, sample handlers and support staff.
Field Ecologist / GIS / Data Analyst	28	[#7] Field ecologists, GIS technicians and data analysts supporting monitoring and research operations.

📋 Confidence Notes

Estimates are based on analyst line-item ranges and mid-point selections; geopolitics, local market variability, engineering unknowns (BSL level required, true scale of geotechnical work) and the anomalous nature of SCP-6991 introduce substantial uncertainty.

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