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SCP-7193 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-7193
Expected annual
$7.7B
One-time setup
$44.2B
Annual recurring
$6.8B
Personnel
23750
Corrected estimate: Foundation one-time capital buildout ≈ $44.16B (itemised: bases/hardening, SAM procurement & missile stockpile, AEW spares, C2 and mobile assets). Recurring Foundation operational baseline ≈ $6.781B/yr (personnel, AEW flight-hours, routine missile replenishment, maintenance, logistics and research). Large event-driven missile expenditure and reconstruction costs are modelled in scenarios and recorded as systemic impacts where appropriate.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $44.2B
Equipment $37.5B
Itemised equipment and capital stockpiles: AEW spare/relief airframes & retrofit (8 E-3-equivalent × $200M = $1.6B); SAM battery procurement (mixed fleet): 400 medium-range × $20M = $8.0B; 200 high-end long-range × $75M = $15.0B; initial interceptor stockpile sized for surge capacity (10,000 missiles × $1.0M/missile = $10.0B); missile modification & retrofit R&D/test program = $0.3B; secure C2/SATCOM & hardened datalink hardware = $0.6B; mobile/offshore deployment assets = $2.0B. Sum of listed subcomponents = $37.5B. Large totals are broken into unit counts and unit prices per Rule 1.
Facilities $6.6B
Itemised infrastructure to support containment across North Atlantic: AEW MRO & hardened hangars (3 regional hubs @ $200M = $600M); coastal site construction & hardening for 600 SAM sites (600 × $5.0M/site = $3.000B); logistics depots & munitions storage = $1.000B; remote power generation & fuel depot setup = $1.000B; civil-defense coastal buildout (sirens, shelters, evacuation infrastructure) = $1.000B. Subcomponents are shown to justify the aggregate.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $60.0M
Dedicated anomaly research lab and instrumentation: containment-safe forensic bays and secure lab buildout = $40M; specialised sensors, telemetry capture and cryostorage = $20M. Designed for analysis of salvaged material and telemetry; the Foundation does not plan impossible recoveries of intact craft (see Rule 2).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $6.8B/yr
Staff Wages $2.3B/yr
Operational personnel wages and benefits. Explicit headcounts and rates used: SAM battery operators & technicians (600 sites × 30 personnel = 18,000 × $90k = $1.62B); AEW aircrew, sensor operators & maintainers (1,200 × $140k = $168M); engineers/MRO staff (2,000 × $120k = $240M); logistics & transport crew (1,000 × $80k = $80M); research staff (150 × $200k = $30M); medical/emergency staff (300 × $80k = $24M); security/MTF support (500 × $120k = $60M); cybersecurity/IT (200 × $140k = $28M); admin/legal/diplomacy (400 × $150k = $60M). Aggregate = $2.301B/yr. All components enumerated to justify the total.
Supplies And Consumables $2.0B/yr
Baseline consumables and routine missile replenishment to maintain minimum operating stockpile absent large manifestations ≈ $2.0B/yr. Large event-driven missile expenditure is modelled separately in scenarios and is not included in baseline recurring consumables (see scenarios).
Logistics And Transport $1.6B/yr
AEW continuous flight operations and transport plus maritime patrol and mobile-assets movement. AEW on-station math: 4 aircraft airborne 24/7 → ~35,040 flight-hours/yr; at ~$30,000 per flight-hour = ~$1.0512B/yr for AEW flight-hours. Add maritime patrol and ISR ops ~$300M/yr, sealift and mobile launcher movement ~$150M/yr, depot/munitions airlift ~$100M/yr. Aggregate ≈ $1.60B/yr.
Facilities Maintenance $660.0M/yr
Recurring maintenance and depot repair: AEW heavy-maintenance & depot repair ≈ $300M/yr; coastal site maintenance (600 × ~$300k/site/yr) ≈ $180M/yr; logistics depot & mobile-asset upkeep ≈ $100M/yr; civil-defense drills/upkeep ≈ $80M/yr. Total ≈ $660M/yr.
Research And Monitoring $220.0M/yr
Ongoing scientific research, anomaly monitoring, smallsat tasking and prototype work on defeat options ≈ $220M/yr. Funds anomaly data analysis, targeted experiments and baseline R&D.
Cover Story And Legal $0/yr
Set to $0 because large-scale concealment is infeasible for this anomaly: SCP-7193 produces visible kinetic attacks and requires multinational, public defensive measures (NAPP). Per Rule 3, concealment at the necessary scale is impossible; the Foundation instead coordinates openly with NAPP partners and funds legal/diplomatic liaison via administration line items and host-nation arrangements.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $6.8B/yr
72.0% probability / year
Normal operational year without a major manifestation that drives mass interceptor expenditure. Includes all recurring Foundation operational costs (patrols, maintenance, routine replenishment and research).
no_large_manifestation routine_maintenance_and_operations
🚨 Minor Incident $9.4B/yr
27.0% probability / year +$2.6B vs baseline
Single average manifestation (~1,000 instances) intercepted before coastal visual range, requiring substantial missile expenditure and surge operations plus targeted humanitarian/salvage response.
single_manifestation_~1000_instances large_missile_expenditure localized_coastal_damage_and_salvage
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $23.8B/yr
1.0% probability / year +$17.0B vs baseline
Worst-case mass manifestation (near upper bound of 5,000 instances) resulting in mass engagements, massive missile consumption and regionally significant damage requiring prolonged Foundation surge and large relief contributions.
mass_manifestation_>=5000_instances widespread_coastal_damage multi-regional_humanitarian_crisis
👥 Personnel 23750 total
Role Count Notes
SAM Battery Operators & Technicians 18000 600 batteries × 30 personnel/site covering operators, technicians, security and local support. Headcount used in staff_wages calculation.
AEW Flight Crew & Aircrew Support 1200 Pilots, sensor operators, airborne mission specialists and immediate maintenance crewing to support continuous AEW patrols and surge ops.
Engineers / Maintenance 2000 Engineers, MRO technicians and depot staff for AEW, SAM systems, and logistics hubs.
Logistics & Transport 1000 Sealift, airlift, depot handling and transport personnel for munitions and site resupply.
Research Scientists 150 Anomaly research, data analysis, sensors and R&D staff.
Medical Officer / Emergency Response 300 Medical and emergency personnel for casualty triage, on-site care and coordination with humanitarian partners.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 500 Site security, MTF rapid-response elements and on-site protective details.
Cybersecurity / IT 200 C2, datalink security, SOC staff and network defence.
Administrative Staff / Legal / Diplomacy Liaison 400 Program office, legal, host-nation liaison, contracting and administration.
📋 Confidence Notes
Confidence is medium. Major line items are broken into explicit unit counts and prices to satisfy Rule 1. Primary uncertainties: true per-interceptor cost (varies by type), frequency distribution of manifestations, and exact cost-sharing terms with NAPP partners. Systemic economic impacts are highly scenario-dependent and therefore presented separately (Rule 4).
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