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SCP-7227 Thorleyan ~ medium confidence
SCP-7227
Expected annual
$875K
One-time setup
$574K
Annual recurring
$870K
Personnel
8
Initial one-time containment and equipment buildout is modest (~$574k), while main recurring costs are driven by staff wages, benefits, research/monitoring, and facility overhead (~$870k/yr). Legal, identity-management, and contingency reserves are significant secondary drivers.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $574K
Facilities $225K
[#1] Secure containment suite buildout: two single-occupancy bedrooms, shared office, observation windows/cameras, secure entry and basic comms.
Breach Insurance Reserve $100K
[#20] Containment breach insurance / legal reserve fund (recommended reserve).
Equipment $80K
[#6, #10, #11, #15] Surveillance one-time install (#6 $15k), research equipment baseline (#10 $20k), data/IT one-time setup (#11 $10k), secure vehicle purchase (#15 $35k).
Misc Contingency $75K
[#24] One-time contingency (15% mid-range of one-time spend) to cover unforeseen one-time administrative/equipment costs per note #24.
Legal Retainer $25K
[#13] One-time legal/cover-up retainer and initial risk mitigation fees.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $22K
[#7, #19] Initial medical & forensic testing baseline (#7 $10k) and program-wide/initial training/setup (#19 $12k).
Pr And Disinformation Reserve $20K
[#22] PR & disinformation one-time reserve for local narrative control.
Emergency Response Kit $12K
[#14] Contingency & emergency response kit (sedation supplies, restraint tech, med evac equipment).
Mortality And Succession Contingency $10K
[#21] Succession/mortality contingency and forensics planning/setup fund.
Identity Management Setup $5K
[#12] One-time creation of cover paperwork, duplicate records, IDs, initial legal administrative setup.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $870K/yr
Staff Wages $560K/yr
[#3, #5, #9, #18] Subject payroll (~$150k/yr for both subjects, #3), security staff wages (~$150k/yr, #5), research staffing wages (~$180k/yr, #9), program manager/admin salary (~$80k/yr, #18).
Misc Contingency $113K/yr
[#24] Recurring contingency (15% mid-range of recurring spend) to cover unforeseen annual administrative, legal, or operational costs per note #24.
Facilities Maintenance $80K/yr
[#2] Facility overhead (rent/utilities/maintenance for containment wing).
Benefits And Employment Overhead $38K/yr
[#4] Employer-side benefits & employment overhead (~25% of payroll).
Research And Monitoring $29K/yr
[#8, #11, #17] Ongoing medical monitoring & emergency care (#8 $8k/yr), data storage/IT ops (#11 $6k/yr), psychological care/therapy sessions (#17 $15k/yr).
Cover Story And Legal $17K/yr
[#12, #13, #22] Identity administration upkeep (#12 $4k/yr), ongoing legal/retainer fees (#13 $10k/yr), PR monitoring/upkeep (#22 $3k/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $14K/yr
[#14, #16] Consumables for living quarters (#16 $12k/yr) plus resupply/training consumables for emergency kit (#14 $2k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $8K/yr
[#15] Secure transport operations (fuel, insurance, driver ops) recurring costs.
Surveillance Operations $8K/yr
[#6] Surveillance recurring costs: storage, maintenance, access control upkeep.
Training And Clearance $3K/yr
[#19] Recurring refreshers, clearance renewals, periodic staff training.
Longitudinal Study Optional $0/yr
[#23] Optional longitudinal study budget; provided as an add-on range in notes ($50k–$500k/yr) but set to $0 for baseline containment.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $870K/yr
94.5% probability / year
Normal year with steady containment, routine monitoring, no major incidents.
routine_monitoring no_public_discovery no major medical events
🚨 Minor Incident $930K/yr
5.0% probability / year +$60K vs baseline
Localized administrative/legal incident or small leak requiring additional PR/legal response and short-term increased staff hours.
third_party_discovery small legal dispute targeted PR/cover-up action
🚨 Major Breach $1.4M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Significant exposure or one subject discovers the duplication triggering relocation, intense legal action, extended forensic work, and containment escalation.
public_exposure subject_noncompliance litigation_or_investigation
👥 Personnel 8 total
Role Count Notes
Subject (Alex Thorley) - payroll/stipend 2 [#3] Both individuals are kept on payroll/contract to preserve cover and cooperation; combined payroll included in staff_wages.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 3 [#5] Three rotating guards (shift coverage) assumed in security wage estimate.
Research Scientist (Psychologist) 1 [#9] One licensed psychologist / PI included in research staffing wages.
Research Technician 1 [#9] One research tech for interviews, behavioural studies, and record-keeping included in research staffing wages.
Program Manager / Administrative Staff 1 [#18] One program manager/administrator to coordinate containment, reporting, and liaison.
📋 Confidence Notes
Reasonable detail in analyst notes allows midrange estimates for most line items, but several items (local real estate, optional longitudinal research, and likelihoods of discovery) have wide ranges; contingency percentages and scenario probabilities are judgment-based.
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