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SCP-7409 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-7409
Expected annual
$3.0M
One-time setup
$67.0M
Annual recurring
$2.7M
Personnel
8
One-time capital costs are dominated by optional quarantine lab upgrades and a conditional capture-vessel design program (~$67M total); annual operations are modest, dominated by personnel, observation, secure data handling, and quarantine readiness (~$2.74M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $67.0M
Capture Vessel Design Fabrication $50.0M
[#17] Conditional design/fabrication of a space-rated quarantine/capture module (conditional, high-end estimate).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $10.1M
[#3, #9] One-time HPC/storage setup and astropaleobiology / BSL-4-like quarantine lab buildout.
Contingency Study Reserve $2.0M
[#10] Reserve funds for feasibility studies, prototypes, or emergency response research prep.
Foundation Telescope Purchase $1.7M
[#2] Purchase/build and deployment of a small ground-based survey telescope (procure/build/site costs).
Drone Replacement $1.5M
[#8] Replacement cost for a specialized long-range/unmanned patrol craft (Phoenix-class replacement).
Insurance Reserve $1.0M
[#15] One-time insurance / emergency reserve initially funded.
Facilities $300K
[#2] Site preparation and small observatory siting work for a Foundation-owned telescope.
Equipment $150K
[#7] Secure communications/equipment setup (satellite/leased-lines, encryption devices) one-time hardware/setup.
Memetic Software And Training $150K
[#6] Development of memetic-scrubbing software and initial specialized viewer training.
Decommissioning Per Incident $125K
[#14] Typical cost to safely decommission/destroy contaminated hardware per incident.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.7M/yr
Staff Wages $900K/yr
[#4, #5] Salaries for scientific analysis team (astrophysicists, botanist, memetics specialist, data technicians) and a small dedicated security/OPSEC team.
Observation Program $500K/yr
[#1] Dedicated optical/IR monitoring program (paid partner observatory time or dedicated remote queueing/observing).
Cover Story And Legal $300K/yr
[#11] Legal, cover-story maintenance, PR mitigation, and interaction with external agencies.
Research And Monitoring $225K/yr
[#16, #18, #3] Periodic cosmological / Boötes Void surveys, extended modeling/archival projects, and HPC cycle costs for modeling/archival growth.
Facilities Maintenance $200K/yr
[#2, #9] Maintenance of observatory site(s) and quarantine / lab facilities.
Insurance Replenish $200K/yr
[#15] Annual replenishment / small emergency fund contributions for anomalous events and quick-response actions.
Logistics And Transport $150K/yr
[#8] Drone operations/maintenance and routine mission costs (Phoenix upkeep/ops).
Supplies And Consumables $100K/yr
[#3, #9] Consumables, classified media, cleanroom consumables and routine lab supplies.
Secure Comms Ops $60K/yr
[#7] Ongoing communications, cybersecurity, and telemetry service costs.
Audit And Oversight $50K/yr
[#12] Internal auditing, compliance reviews, and oversight activities.
Memetic Training Upkeep $30K/yr
[#6] Recurring refresher training, audits, and memetic screening updates.
Psychological Support $25K/yr
[#13] Psychological screening and counseling for remote operators and staff exposed to imagery.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.7M/yr
87.9% probability / year
Normal year of observation, routine maintenance, personnel wages, and scheduled monitoring with no major incidents.
routine_observation scheduled_maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $4.4M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$1.6M vs baseline
Contamination or disabling event affecting Phoenix or similar hardware requiring decommissioning and replacement.
drone_contamination hardware_loss
🚨 Major Public Exposure $5.7M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
Significant leak or foreign agency attention requiring expanded legal/PR response, emergency studies, and extra oversight.
leak_or_foreign_discovery diplomatic_pressure
🚨 Retrieval Attempt $54.7M/yr
0.1% probability / year +$52.0M vs baseline
Decision to design/fabricate a capture/quarantine vessel or initiate a major scale-up research/missions program (conditional, highly expensive).
policy_change research_breakthrough
👥 Personnel 8 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist / Astrophysicist 2 [#4] Astrophysicists for observation planning, spectroscopy, and modeling.
Botanist / Astrobiologist 1 [#4] Specialist to interpret pollen/biological signatures.
Memetics / Cognitive-Hazard Specialist 1 [#4, #6] Handles memetic screening, protocols, and training design.
Data Analyst / Technician 2 [#3, #4] Image/spectral data processing, archive maintenance, and automated pipeline ops.
Security Officer / OPSEC Specialist 2 [#5] Small dedicated team to maintain secrecy, physical security of remote assets, and OPSEC.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates draw directly from analyst-provided ranges and canonical personnel lists, but many line items have wide ranges and conditional/ speculative items (capture tech, retrieval). This yields moderate confidence.
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