SCP-7627 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-7627
Expected annual
$235.5M
One-time setup
$4.7B
Annual recurring
$185.5M
Personnel
125
Baseline monitoring and diplomatic containment require roughly $185M/yr in recurring costs and several hundred million in one-time setup; active neutralization programs drive one-time costs into the low billions and annual sustainment into the hundreds of millions.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $4.7B
Full Neutralization Capex $2.5B
[#27] One-time full neutralization/manufacturing/launch program capex if Overseer Council authorizes active neutralization (very high).
Countermeasure R And D $1.0B
[#10] One-time R&D capex for interceptor/interceptor-prototype development and related hardware (optional, high-end).
Contingency Reserve Pool $300.0M
[#22] One-time reserve pool for legal blowback, clandestine reimbursements, settlements and deniability operations.
Facilities $250.0M
[#12, #4] Hardened secure research/response facility build and ground-based sensor infrastructure (telescopes/radar foundations).
Equipment $240.0M
[#3, #4] ELINT station network hardware and dedicated reconnaissance satellite hardware (platforms/launch capex allocated here).
Covert Strike Capex $150.0M
[#11] One-time stand-up costs for covert strike/sabotage augmentation (deniable delivery systems, staging).
Humanitarian Preparedness Fund $125.0M
[#21] One-time preparedness stockpiles and MOUs for mass-casualty contingency readiness.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $90.0M
[#9, #13] Research program startup (laboratory buildout, instrumentation) and initial computing/modelling hardware.
Covert Seed Fund $30.0M
[#8] One-time seed capital for cover-enterprises, shell company establishment and initial off-book cash pools.
Safehouse Network Setup $7.5M
[#15] One-time setup costs for a network of safehouses and relocation infrastructure.
Humint Initial Insertion $5.8M
[#2] Initial insertion, cover identities, relocation, bribe pools and safehouse setup for HUMINT assets.
Secure Communications Installation $5.0M
[#14] One-time installation of dedicated encrypted comms infrastructure (satellite uplinks, burst comms hardware, crypto appliances).
Archive And Recordkeeping $5.0M
[#23] One-time establishment of long-term secure archives, vaults and classification infrastructure.
Specialized Transport Vehicles $3.0M
[#20] One-time purchase/modification of specialized covert transport and discrete cargo platforms.
Liaison Secure Installation $2.0M
[#5] One-time secure communications and liaison office installation to enable information-sharing with partners.
Baseline Program Projection $0
[#26] Summary projection only; baseline monitoring/diplomacy setup costs captured across other one-time items.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $185.5M/yr
Humanitarian Maintenance $30.0M/yr
[#21] Annual maintenance of humanitarian readiness, stockpile refresh and partnership reimbursements.
Staff Wages $20.0M/yr
[#16] Salaries for analysts, scientists, handlers, security and administrative staff (fully-loaded headcount).
Humint Network Operations $18.0M/yr
[#1] Ongoing payoffs, handler teams, travel, comms, medical/psych support and retention costs for embedded HUMINT assets.
Cover Story And Legal $17.5M/yr
[#18, #19] Public information, media influence operations, legal and diplomatic counsel retainer and routine cover-story maintenance.
Research And Monitoring $14.0M/yr
[#9, #13] Ongoing scientific program costs, modelling operations, computing operations and monitoring research staff.
Ssa Operations $12.0M/yr
[#4] Operations for space situational awareness: ground sensor ops, satellite ops and tracking/analysis staff.
Covert Fund Replenishment $12.0M/yr
[#8] Recurring replenishment of covert cash pools, shell-company operating budgets and bribe funds.
Diplomatic Delegations $9.0M/yr
[#6] Salaries, travel and operating budgets for diplomatic/front offices to maintain open channels with both blocs.
Facilities Maintenance $8.0M/yr
[#12] Maintenance, hardening upkeep, EMP protection renewals and site lifecycle costs for hardened facilities.
Logistics And Transport $8.0M/yr
[#20] Charters, secure cargo movement, discrete shipping covers and contingency transport budgets (routine).
Liaison Operations $8.0M/yr
[#5] Ongoing secure liaison office operations, cryptographic renewals and partner reimbursements.
Psychological Operations $8.0M/yr
[#24] Funding for rumor control, discrete influence operations, and civil-stability mitigation activities.
Sigint Operations $5.0M/yr
[#3] Operations, analysts and maintenance for ELINT/SIGINT stations and intercept operations.
Training And Exercises $5.0M/yr
[#17] War-gaming, joint contingency exercises and partner rehearsals.
Safehouse Maintenance $3.0M/yr
[#15] Safehouse upkeep, relocation allowances and short-term care for compromised assets.
Negotiation Team $2.5M/yr
[#7] Negotiators, translators, legal advisers and continuity planners retained for back-channel talks.
Secure Comms Operations $2.0M/yr
[#14] Ongoing ops, crypto key rotation, satellite uplink leases and secure comms maintenance.
Energy And Utilities $2.0M/yr
[#25] Power provisioning, generator fuel and utilities for hardened sites and remote ground stations.
Archive Maintenance $1.5M/yr
[#23] Ongoing archive preservation, access control and recordkeeping operations.
Supplies And Consumables $0/yr
[]
Countermeasure Operations $0/yr
[#10] Optional annual ops/testing for interceptors/DE weapons; set to 0 in baseline (costs only if program activated).
Covert Strike Sustainment $0/yr
[#11] Recurring sustainment for covert strike capability (set to 0 in baseline; activated only if authorized).
Full Neutralization Maintenance $0/yr
[#27] Recurring sustainment for a neutralization program (set to 0 in baseline; only incurred if program activated).
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $185.5M/yr
87.0% probability / year
Normal monitoring/diplomacy year with no major incidents or active neutralization program.
steady_intel_flow no_exposure_or_firing routine_diplomacy
🚨 Minor Incident $215.5M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$30.0M vs baseline
Localized HUMINT exposure, diplomatic spat or targeted leak causing asset replacement and elevated PR/legal costs.
asset_exposure targeted_leak diplomatic_spat
🚨 Major Breach $785.5M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$600.0M vs baseline
Significant escalation (attempted or actual firing, major exposure) requiring humanitarian response, major covert/operational expenditures and large contingency disbursements.
projectile_firing large_scale_exposure urgent_humanitarian_response
🚨 Full Neutralization Authorized $3.7B/yr
1.0% probability / year +$3.5B vs baseline
Overseer Council authorizes active neutralization leading to large R&D/manufacturing/launch expenditures and program ramp-up.
authorization_for_active_neutralization breakdown_of_diplomatic_options high_imminence_of_activation
👥 Personnel 125 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 40 [#9, #13, #16] Physicists, materials scientists and modelling staff supporting research into paratechnical mechanisms.
Intelligence Analyst 25 [#3, #16] SIGINT/ELINT and intelligence analysts monitoring telemetry and communications.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 20 [#12, #16] Site security, rapid-response and physical protection for hardened facilities.
HUMINT Handler 15 [#1, #2, #16] Handlers and case officers managing deep-cover assets and tradecraft support.
Engineer / Maintenance 8 [#4, #12, #25] Satellite/ground sensor technicians, facility engineers and power/fuel maintenance staff.
Administrative Staff 8 [#5, #6, #16] Administrative, liaison and office operations supporting diplomatic delegations and front offices.
Medical Officer 3 [#1, #15] Medical and psychological support for compromised assets and staff.
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#12, #16] Program leadership and executive oversight.
Translator / Linguist 5 [#7, #16] Multilingual translators and cultural specialists supporting negotiations and HUMINT.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed ranges and line-item estimates but many items are conditional (optional high-cost programs) and historically uncertain; medium confidence in recurring baseline, lower for large optional program estimates.
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