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SCP-7741 Unknown ? low confidence
SCP-7741
Expected annual
$43.3M
One-time setup
$3.0B
Annual recurring
$21.0M
Personnel
45
Baseline monitoring and remote ISR operations are modest (~$21M/year) but many one-time contingency and capability options (containment hangar, full-capture program, irradiators, submarine procurement) drive total program one-time exposure into the billions. Main recurring drivers are staff wages, research/monitoring, logistics, cover/legal/PSYOPS and contingency/reserve funds.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $3.0B
Full Capture Program One Time $2.0B
[#30] One-time program initiation cost for full-capture/neutralization campaign (order-of-magnitude program cost per analyst notes).
Facilities $1.0B
[#3, #13, #26] Fairfax safehouse hardening and related works (#3); large-scale containment/hangar design & construction (#13); localized power/install costs for remote sites (#26).
Equipment $24.4M
[#2, #9, #8, #11, #12, #14, #22, #18, #10] SIGINT/ELINT secure servers/antennas set-up (#2); Type B transport containers (#9); ROV/midget-sub gear (#8); mobile decon systems (#11); high-activity irradiator / shielding procurement (#12); environmental sensor node deployment hardware (#14); computational cluster (#22); cyber-capability build (#18); initial PPE kit procurement (#10).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $17.5M
[#9, #16] Mobile radiological hot lab buildout/hot cell(s) and shielding (#9); BSL/ABSL + radiological lab upgrades for contaminated specimen analysis (#16).
Cover Org Setup $300K
[#20] Initial set-up of shell companies / false-front NGOs and legal cover - one-time establishment costs.
Training Program Setup $200K
[#25] One-time establishment of recurring training/certification program and initial drills.
Submarine Procurement Purchase $0
[#8] Submarine purchase/procurement cost (not funded under baseline; baseline uses charters). Purchase range documented but set to $0 here as baseline choice.
Heavy Lift Per Operation One Time $0
[#23] Heavy-lift/major recovery per-operation cost (not funded in baseline; per-operation estimates exist and are treated as scenario-specific expenses).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $21.0M/yr
Staff Wages $4.4M/yr
[#2, #4, #5] Salaries and overhead for analysts/intelligence & research personnel (#4), armed security cadre (#5) and SIGINT/ELINT operator staffing components (#2).
Research And Monitoring $4.1M/yr
[#1, #6, #16, #22, #14] Satellite imagery tasking/subscriptions & tasking buys (#1); dedicated aerial ISR / UAV ops (#6); BSL laboratory operations and radiological lab operating costs (#16); computational/experimental research programs (#22); environmental sensor maintenance & comms (#14).
Cover Story And Legal $2.2M/yr
[#20, #21, #19] Ongoing legal/diplomatic support and cover-story costs (#20); media/PSYOPS and misinformation campaigns (#21); payments to local HUMINT assets and covert liaison support (folded into cover/legal budget) (#19).
Contingency Asset Replacement $2.0M/yr
[#7] Contingency/replacement reserve for lost aircraft/vehicles/assets due to hostile action (#7).
Liability And Insurance Reserve $2.0M/yr
[#27] Public safety, liability reserve and catastrophic event insurance fund contribution (#27).
Logistics And Transport $1.9M/yr
[#8, #15, #26] Submarine charter missions and mission-specific insertion costs (#8); shipping/charter vessels/fuel and resupply logistics (#15); fuel & power OPEX for remote sites (#26).
Medical And Medevac $1.0M/yr
[#11] Field medical support, medevac contract operations, long-term treatment preparedness and medical stock replenishment (#11).
Personnel Repatriation And Coverup Reserve $1.0M/yr
[#24] Contingency/rescue reserve for repatriation, hush payments and emergency personnel cover-ups (#24).
Cyber Operations Opex $700K/yr
[#18] Ongoing cyber-offensive/operations budget, zero-day/exploit purchasing and C2 infrastructure maintenance (#18).
Waste Handling And Disposal $500K/yr
[#17] Recurring costs for contaminated materials storage, transport and licensed disposal programs and per-campaign disposals (#17).
Replacement Depreciation Pool $400K/yr
[#28] Replacement reserve for electronics, sensors, drones and comms damaged by EMP, radiation or sabotage (15–25% of tech capex guideline) (#28).
Sigint Operations Opex $300K/yr
[#2] Recurring comms, license, storage and exploitation platform OPEX for SIGINT/ELINT infrastructure (#2).
Facilities Maintenance $150K/yr
[#3] Fairfax safehouse lease, utilities and recurring hardening maintenance costs (#3).
Supplies And Consumables $125K/yr
[#10] Consumable PPE, filters, dosimetry consumables and replacement consumables for field teams (#10).
Training And Drills $125K/yr
[#25] Recurring certification courses and readiness drills for radiological response, remote ops and hostile engagement (#25).
Irradiator Operations Opex $0/yr
[#12] Recurring operation & security for high-activity irradiator/linac if deployed; set to $0 in baseline due to regulatory/political infeasibility but documented as a possible recurring cost if deployed (#12).
Continuous Monitoring Umbrella $0/yr
[#29] Umbrella figure for consolidated continuous monitoring; baseline costs are represented explicitly across other recurring line items rather than here (#29).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $21.0M/yr
89.0% probability / year
Normal, uneventful year with persistent remote monitoring, SIGINT/IMINT operations, routine maintenance and reserves.
no_major_incident routine_ops
🚨 Minor Incident $24.0M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
Localized hostile interdiction or asset loss requiring emergency replacement, recovery and increased medevac/forensics spending.
recon_asset_shot_down localized_spill_or_contamination hostile_interdiction
🚨 Full Capture Campaign $2.2B/yr
1.0% probability / year +$2.2B vs baseline
Active decision to attempt full capture/neutralization: large program-level one-time spend plus major follow-up costs and political escalation.
strategic_decision_to_capture nation-state_scale_operation
👥 Personnel 45 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 10 [#4, #16, #22] Radiobiologists, field biologists and research staff for radiation interaction studies and lab analysis.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 20 [#5, #23, #24] Armed security cadre for safehouse, field teams and escort operations; rotation for Pacific deployments.
SIGINT Analyst / Operator 6 [#2] ELINT/SIGINT operators maintaining continuous monitoring and exploitation of intercepted communications.
Engineer / Maintenance 4 [#3, #14, #26] Facility engineers, power/solar techs and sensor maintenance staff for safehouse, remote nodes and power infrastructure.
Medical Officer 3 [#11, #25] Field medical personnel for immediate response, radiation sickness treatment and medevac coordination.
Administrative Staff 2 [#20, #19] Administrative and cover-story coordination, liaison and contract management.
📋 Confidence Notes
Wide ranges in analyst estimates, strong political/regulatory uncertainty (US control of site), and many scenario-dependent one-time program costs produce low confidence in precise figures; line items are best-effort midpoints and several expensive options are intentionally optional.
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