SCP-7771 — SCP-7771 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-7771 Keter ~ medium confidence

SCP-7771

Expected annual

$22.1M

One-time setup

$153.6M

Annual recurring

$18.1M

Personnel

One-time setup and contingency reserves dominate costs (notably a large contingency fund and speculative R&D), while recurring annual costs are driven by staff wages, rapid-response teams and ongoing monitoring/infrastructure operations.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $153.6M

Contingency Reserve $100.0M

[#5] Conservative Foundation-style liquid contingency reserve for low-probability catastrophes (availability fund; one-time/semi-liquid).

Speculative Probability Rd $25.0M

[#22] One-time/seeding capital for long-range speculative containment R&D into probability-damping technologies (multi-year program capital).

Facilities $15.2M

[#1, #7, #8] Program decommissioning (#1), structural redundancy/hardening and physical upgrades (#7), and establishment of warehouses/logistic caches and site prep for stockpiles (#8).

Crisis Litigation Reserve $10.0M

[#27] One-time reserve specifically set aside for crisis litigation/settlements arising from chains of improbable events and public harm.

Equipment $2.7M

[#3, #4, #13, #20] Big-data servers and analytics stack one-time setup (#3), HPC cluster/hardware (#4), controlled-trials instrumentation (#13), and communications hardening hardware (satellite phones, encrypted mesh, leased-line hardware) (#20).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $500K

[#12] Initial lab buildout and setup for experimental research into probability/control mitigation (initial lab setup portion of #12).

Covert Shell Formation Onetime $100K

[#18] Formation costs for covert financial mechanisms and shell entities (initial setup costs of shell entities, labeled ONE-TIME per notes).

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $18.1M/yr

Staff Wages $4.5M/yr

[#2, #19] Ongoing salaries and benefits: risk-monitoring/intelligence analysts (#2) plus broader program staff (program manager, statisticians, ops leads, sysadmins, legal, HR) for a medium program (#19).

Logistics And Transport $4.0M/yr

[#6] Maintain rapid response/mitigation teams nationally (vehicles, equipment, training, standby pay) for multiple teams (#6).

Research And Monitoring $2.0M/yr

[#12] Recurring research budget for statistics/complex-systems work and ongoing experimental programs (#12).

Opportunity Cost $2.0M/yr

[#25] Opportunity/macro costs from capital tied up in contingency reserves (assumed ~2% of chosen reserve size per year).

Cover Story And Legal $1.0M/yr

[#9, #10] Legal, settlements, compliance management (#9) plus public-relations and narrative management (#10).

Insurance Premiums $1.0M/yr

[#11] Commercial insurance and indemnity premium estimates for property/liability/cyber given correlated-risk exposure (#11).

Big Data Hosting And Ops $500K/yr

[#3] Hosting, maintenance, licensing and operational costs for big-data ingest, retention, and analytics platform (recurring portion of #3).

Stockpile Upkeep $500K/yr

[#8] Maintenance, rotation, fuel and readiness costs for pre-positioned medical supplies, spare parts, fuel and UAVs (#8 recurring).

Data Licenses $500K/yr

[#17] Licenses and proprietary data feeds for financial tick data, satellite imagery, telecom metadata where legal (#17).

Stress Tests $300K/yr

[#15] Annual stress-tests and red-team exercises to simulate coincident rare failures (#15).

Physical Security $300K/yr

[#21] Ongoing physical security costs for guarded facilities, secure warehouses and armored transport (#21).

Misc Operational Overhead $300K/yr

[#26] Travel, office space, utilities, petty contracts and small-scale unforeseen responses (#26).

Hpc Operations $250K/yr

[#4] Ongoing operations and maintenance if HPC/cluster hardware is owned (recurring portion of #4).

Psychological Care $200K/yr

[#23] Counseling, hardship pay and medical care for affected staff/populations (#23).

Audit And Oversight $200K/yr

[#24] Internal/external auditors and ethics board oversight costs (#24).

Training And Sop $150K/yr

[#14] Staff training, tabletop exercises and resiliency programs for handling 'unlucky' event sequences (#14).

Subscriptions And Tools $150K/yr

[#16] Statistical/AI tool subscriptions and anomaly-detection SaaS (#16).

Supplies And Consumables $100K/yr

[#13] Consumables, subjects compensation and per-trial expenses for controlled trials and instrumentation (#13).

Covert Shell Maintenance $50K/yr

[#18] Annual maintenance and compliance costs for front companies and shell entities (recurring portion of #18).

Comms Maintenance $50K/yr

[#20] Recurring costs for redundant/encrypted communications lines and satellite service subscriptions (#20 recurring).

Facilities Maintenance $0/yr

[]

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $18.1M/yr

86.5% probability / year

Normal year with ongoing monitoring, maintenance and no major incidents.

no major incidents routine operations

🚨 Minor Incident $20.6M/yr

10.0% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline

Localized coincident failures requiring regional rapid-response, legal/PR action and limited reserve use.

localized infrastructure failure limited public exposure small cascading outages

🚨 Major Breach $68.0M/yr

2.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline

Widespread correlated failures or a containment/breach-level event requiring large emergency spending and partial draw from contingency reserves.

national-scale cascading failures significant public exposure major remediation and rebuild

🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $48.0M/yr

1.0% probability / year +$30.0M vs baseline

Successful speculative R&D outcome prompting a rapid scale-up program and capital deployment.

significant R&D result leadership orders rapid deployment

🚨 Catastrophic Financial Collapse $518.0M/yr

0.5% probability / year +$500.0M vs baseline

Very rare systemic event (e.g., financial or infrastructure collapse) requiring catastrophic intervention and wide emergency payouts.

systemic market collapse nationwide infrastructure failure mass public harm

👥 Personnel 30 total

Role	Count	Notes
Research Scientist	10	Senior and junior researchers for statistical, complexity theory and experimental work (part of #12, #19).
Risk Analyst / Intelligence Analyst	6	Ongoing monitoring team for anomalous clusters and indicators (matches #2 estimate of 3–8 analysts).
Engineer / Maintenance	4	Maintain infrastructure, HPC and field equipment (supports #3, #4, #7).
Security Officer / MTF Agent	4	Physical security for caches and rapid protective deployments (supports #6, #21).
Administrative Staff	3	Program admin, legal liaison, HR and finance (supports #1, #9, #18).
Sysadmin / IT	2	Operate big-data ingestion, hosting and HPC resources (#3, #4).
Medical Officer / Psychological Care	1	On-call psychological and medical support for staff and responders (#23).

📋 Confidence Notes

Analyst notes provide detailed line-item ranges allowing medium confidence in structure and order-of-magnitude estimates, but many items have wide ranges (especially contingency reserves and speculative R&D) and some operational choices (program scale, number of rapid-response teams, reserve sizing) are policy-dependent, reducing precision.

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