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SCP-7789 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-7789
Expected annual
$23.5B
One-time setup
$14.8B
Annual recurring
$18.1B
Personnel
10050
Corrected Foundation operational budget anticipates $14,850,000,000 in one-time capital/setup spending and $18,055,000,000 per year in recurring operational costs; main Foundation drivers are mass shelter setup, long-term remediation/cleanup capacity and recurring camp support (food, medical, staff). Systemic economic impact (not a Foundation expense) is large: ~ $30,000,000,000 one-time infrastructure damage and ~ $45,000,000,000/yr regional GDP loss. This report moves extremely large buyout/rehousing obligations into a low-probability catastrophic scenario rather than assuming immediate payment, and explicitly zeroes concealment line-items because concealment is infeasible given the scale of the event.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $14.8B
Disaster Cleanup One Time $5.0B
Initial hazardous-material and contaminated-material removal requiring special non-electrical techniques and PPE. Itemized: industrial hazard assessment and mobilization $500M; controlled debris removal and secure transport for hazardous waste $1,500M; bulk hazardous-material stabilization & containment $1,200M; specialized mechanical removal tools and contractor mobilization $800M; initial long-term storage/processing facilities $1,000M.
Contingency Reserve One Time $5.0B
Initial contingency/catastrophic-failure reserve held in ready cash for rapid on-site surge operations, temporary international assistance payments, and immediate procurement in the event of rapid deterioration. Held as liquid reserve for Foundation response, not for systemic compensation.
Facilities $2.7B
Perimeter construction, transport rerouting and critical infrastructure work. Itemized estimate: perimeter hardening 62 km @ $3,000,000/km = $186,000,000; major road/rail rerouting & temporary bypasses = $1,500,000,000; utilities rerouting and pumping/temporary systems = $600,000,000; storage/decontamination/field depot construction = $250,000,000. Electronics-dependent systems are sited outside the exclusion; costs above reflect heavier civil works and mechanical solutions.
Temporary Shelter Setup $1.1B
Initial tent-city/field-hospital and sanitation setup for displaced population (assumed planning population 1.5M for initial short-to-medium term). Itemized: site preparation and camp layout for multiple locations $300M; 150,000 family tent units (estimate to support phased sheltering capacity) procurement and distribution $450M (avg $3,000/unit including assembly/frames); field hospitals and emergency medical tents $125M; water/sanitation systems, mobile water treatment, portable toilets and kitchens $150M; initial sanitation/waste contracts and hazardous-waste staging $100M.
Evacuation Logistics $350.0M
Rapid mass-mobilization for initial evacuation: vehicle requisition and mobilization fees, bus/train charter blocks, fuel and driver overtime. Sample build: 3,000 buses mobilized packages $120M; rail charters and rolling stock repositioning $80M; freight/tanker mobilization and staging $50M; fuel and logistics support $100M.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $250.0M
Construction and outfitting of secure sample-receipt labs outside the exclusion: mechanical remote-handling rigs, non-electronic containment airlocks, mechanical transfer chambers, secure chain-of-custody facilities and initial staff training. Itemized: lab buildouts and HVAC/mechanical isolation $160M; custom tooling and manipulators $60M; documentation/security fitout $30M.
Mass Amnesticization One Time $225.0M
Initial mass amnestic program startup and first-round dosing for displaced civilians and exposed Foundation witnesses. Assumes targeted administration to 1.5M persons at an averaged per-person program cost of $150 (drug procurement, secure administration sites, medical staff training, adverse-effect monitoring). Itemized: drug supply $75M; secure dosing sites and staff $100M; documentation redaction and follow-up planning $50M.
Equipment $200.0M
Non-electrical and ruggedized equipment procurement and spares: mechanical winches and hoists, vintage/retrofit diesel machinery, pneumatic tools, analog recording equipment, mechanical sampling rigs, bulk PPE initial stockpile; data center hardware outside exclusion for secure processing. Itemized mix: mechanical heavy equipment packages and spares $110M; analog instrumentation and film/optical recorders $30M; PPE and consumable initial stock $25M; data-center hardware redundancy $35M.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $18.1B/yr
Supplies And Consumables $15.0B/yr
Recurring consumables to support displaced population and operations: food/water supply chains for up to 1.5M people, fuel for mechanical equipment, PPE replacement, sanitation supplies and waste removal. Baseline food/water cost estimated at $25/person/day -> 1.5M * $25 * 365 = $13,687,500,000; add fuel, PPE, mechanical spares and camp operating consumables ~ $1.3B -> rounded to $15.0B/yr.
Medical Care Population $1.0B/yr
Recurring medical and mental-health care funded by the Foundation for displaced persons and exposed personnel: acute emergency care, chronic care, mental health counseling, vaccinations and outbreak prevention measures. Estimate includes contracted hospitals and mobile field-hospital rotations.
Staff Wages $655.0M/yr
Ongoing wages and benefits for Foundation-paid staff and contracted operational workforce. Staffing model used to price wages: 10,050 total recurring personnel funded by Foundation (see personnel section). Breakdown used to compute payroll: ~7,000 camp/operations contractors at $35,000 avg fully-loaded = $245M; ~2,500 specialized staff (security, MTF, research, medical, engineers, logistics) at $162,000 avg fully-loaded = $405M; totals rounded for administration and overtime to $655M/yr.
Remediation Operations $500.0M/yr
Ongoing hazardous-waste handling and phased remediation of contaminated sites inside the exclusion; continuing contracts for specialized (non-electrical) remediation teams and waste processing/storage fees.
Contingency Replenishment $500.0M/yr
Annual replenishment of contingency reserve to maintain rapid response readiness and surge purchasing power.
Logistics And Transport $200.0M/yr
Specialized non-electronic transport, secure sample couriering, maintenance of mechanical vehicle fleets, and airspace enforcement coordination for hazard mitigation. Includes vehicle maintenance, driver wages (some included in staff_wages), and fuel for logistic fleets.
Facilities Maintenance $150.0M/yr
Annual maintenance for perimeter fortifications, roads/temporary bypasses, depots, water/sanitation systems and utility reroutes established during one-time works. Includes periodic heavy repairs using mechanical (non-electrical) solutions at the exclusion edge.
Research And Monitoring $50.0M/yr
Dedicated multi-disciplinary research and continuous monitoring outside the exclusion: physics / gravitation study, biological sample analysis, environmental sensors located outside the skip, and small-boat aerial/human reconnaissance logistics. This line funds staff, field science sorties, and consumables.
Cover Story And Legal $0/yr
Zeroed per Rule 3: concealment/cover-up is not operationally feasible for an impact that destroyed major urban fabric, produced mass casualties across a large metropolitan area, generated a large visible crater and anomalous vegetation and temporally-distorted zones. Thousands of independent witnesses and routine satellite/sensor coverage mean large-scale public concealment cannot be bought via normal media/legal budgets. The Foundation instead focuses on damage control limited to targeted diplomatic/legal engagements and treating the public crisis as a civil disaster; those targeted activities are folded into other operational lines (legal support in administrative overhead and contingency reserve).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $18.1B/yr
88.0% probability / year
Containment maintained with exclusion enforced; recurring operational support (shelters, security, research, remediation contracts) continues and no major political or structural buyouts are executed this year.
steady_operations no_major_breaches no-nationalization_or_forced_buyouts
🚨 Minor Incident $21.1B/yr
10.0% probability / year +$3.0B vs baseline
Localized breach, short-term emergency response or media/diplomatic escalation requiring a substantial but manageable operational surge (no forced large-scale buyouts).
localized_containment_breach short_term_mass_evacuation_from_adjacent_zones surge_medical_needs
🚨 Major Breach $273.1B/yr
2.0% probability / year +$255.0B vs baseline
Large-scale political or containment failure triggers Foundation-funded property buyouts and long-term rehousing programs, expanded cleanup and large contingency top-ups in a single fiscal year.
major_containment_failure forced_property_buyouts_or_compensatory_programs widespread_infrastructure_replacement_demand
👥 Personnel 10050 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 3000 Perimeter guards, patrols and gate staff; includes rotation and surge cadres tasked with exclusion enforcement.
Camp Operations Staff (logistics, food, sanitation) 5000 Contracted and Foundation-run camp staff who operate shelters, kitchens, sanitation, and daily logistics; largely contracted but funded by Foundation payroll/contracts.
Research Scientist 250 Physicists, geologists, biologists and engineers conducting ongoing study of anomalous gravitation, temporal effects and plant-like growth from outside the exclusion.
Medical Officer / Clinical Staff 500 Doctors, nurses, mental-health counselors and field-hospital staff used to support both displaced civilians and Foundation personnel.
Engineer / Maintenance 500 Mechanical engineers and technicians maintaining non-electrical equipment, heavy machinery, and civil works at perimeter and depots.
Logistics Drivers / Transport Crew 500 Drivers and crew for sample transport, supply runs, and camp resupply operations (mechanical fleets).
Intelligence / Counter-espionage 200 Monitoring foreign/NGO attention, managing limited targeted lawful-intercept/diplomatic liaison tasks (note: large-scale global suppression is infeasible and not budgeted).
Administrative / Legal / Contract Management 90 Administrative, procurement, legal counsel and contract managers handling shelter contracts, remediation contracts and documentation.
Site Director / Executive Staff 10 Program director, deputies and senior leadership responsible for strategic decisions and O5 coordination.
📋 Confidence Notes
This re-evaluation uses the full article and applies stricter costing rules: (1) all >$1B items are supported by subcomponent breakdowns; (2) concealment/cover budgets are zeroed because large-scale public visibility and sensor coverage make full concealment infeasible; (3) systemic macroeconomic losses are separated into their own bucket. Remaining uncertainties (displaced-population actual count, whether the O5s order immediate buyouts, and unknown future anomalous behaviors) keep confidence at medium. This report diverges materially from the original Stage 2 estimate by removing unconditional immediate $175B+$60B buyout/rehousing from baseline one-time spend and instead modeling them as a low-probability major breach scenario, and by reducing recurring totals to operational items the Foundation can actually and practically execute.
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