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SCP-7874 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-7874
Expected annual
$5.0M
One-time setup
$67.9M
Annual recurring
$4.8M
Personnel
19
One-time capital options (bypass construction or road purchase/decommissioning) dominate costs (~$68M if Foundation-funded). Baseline annual operations (daily closures, sweeps, surveillance, research, and cover-story) are roughly $4.8M/year driven by traffic-control contracts, research staff, police/overtime reimbursements, and contingency/reserve allocations.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $67.9M
Facilities $65.8M
[#8, #9, #10, #23] Permanent-capital and structural work: large-range bypass construction funding/contribution, optional purchase & decommissioning of roadway, permanent fencing installation, and utility/infrastructure surveys and permits.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.1M
[#17, #26] Research lab and R&D setup: initial field-research lab equipment and one-time R&D for specialized detection hardware and instrumentation.
Political Investment Initial $500K
[#28] One-time tranche for political/financial investments (discreet funding/bribes/grants/lobbying) if chosen to accelerate bypass or influence local decision-makers.
Equipment $405K
[#4, #11, #12, #14, #15, #16, #18, #29, #21] Hardware and physical systems: purpose-equipped SUVs/light trucks, surveillance systems (CCTV/thermal/seismic), industrial UAVs, initial PPE, non-lethal/medical kits, portable refrigerated evidence containers, hardened archive/IT hardware, mock-checkpoint props, and initial cover-story design/material setup.
Legal Retainer $50K
[#7] One-time retainer for retained attorneys/PR counsel per analyst estimate.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $4.8M/yr
Research And Monitoring $1.4M/yr
[#11, #12, #17, #18, #26] Ongoing research program, sensor maintenance and data storage, R&D refinements for specialized detectors, archive operations and secure data handling; includes recurring experiment/staff/consumables portion of the research program.
Compensation And Settlements $550K/yr
[#6] Annual contingency budget for family payments, hush-money, settlements, or arranged compensation to avoid inquiries.
Contingency Reserve Fund $500K/yr
[#27] Rapid-access reserve allocation for large incidents, mass-casualty responses, or escalations; analyst-chosen annual provisioning toward a larger reserve.
Staff Wages $490K/yr
[#3, #12] Foundation field-team salaries and UAV pilot/operator wages (4–6 FTE equivalents for sweep teams; 1 FTE pilot).
Traffic Control Contract $425K/yr
[#1] Contracted daily road-closure traffic management: crews, signage, portable barriers and associated daily service costs.
Police Overtime Reimbursements $275K/yr
[#2] Payments/reimbursements/overtime/secondments to local law enforcement for visible deterrence and enforcement of closures.
Economic Mitigation Fund $275K/yr
[#22] Indemnification/mitigation payments to local businesses/towns affected by traffic diversions and closures.
Logistics And Transport $235K/yr
[#4, #13, #30] Incident-response vehicle operation/on-call premiums and travel & lodging budgets for rotating specialists and rapid-response crews.
Cover Story And Legal $200K/yr
[#7, #21] Ongoing retained legal counsel and PR operations for records management, FOI responses, and narrative upkeep; separate from one-time retainer.
Political Investment Ongoing $100K/yr
[#28] Ongoing, smaller-scale political/financial efforts (grants, lobbying retainers) if Foundation pursues continued soft influence rather than a single large tranche.
Insurance Worker Compensation $90K/yr
[#24] Additional premiums and worker's compensation/liability coverage for hazardous operations and vehicle fleets.
Facilities Maintenance $60K/yr
[#4, #10, #11, #16] Annual upkeep: vehicle fuel/maintenance/insurance, permanent fencing upkeep, surveillance sensor maintenance and data-link costs, and small maintenance for on-site evidence storage.
Evidence Deniability $55K/yr
[#25] Annual fund for secure destruction/obfuscation of public evidence (wildlife remains, vehicle debris) and related deniability tasks.
Forensics Mortuary Budget $50K/yr
[#5] Baseline annual budget for autopsy, DNA, toxicology, refrigerated storage and evidence processing; incident-dependent.
Training Drills $50K/yr
[#20] Regular tabletop and field drills integrating local authorities, sweep teams, and forensic units.
Psychological Care $30K/yr
[#19] Counseling, rotations, and downtime support for staff exposed to traumatic remains or violent interactions.
Supplies And Consumables $16K/yr
[#14, #15, #21] Annual consumables: PPE replacement, non-lethal/medical resupply, and minor cover-story expendables.
Monitoring Props Replacement $12K/yr
[#29] Annual replacement and maintenance for Cold War-era props/decoys used for research and monitoring.
Cover Story Expendables $12K/yr
[#21] Annual expendables for cover stories: temporary signage, official notices, paid local signage and small infrastructure to maintain the 'roadworks' narrative.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $4.8M/yr
78.0% probability / year
Normal operating year with daily closures, routine sweeps, surveillance, research, and standard cover-story/legal activity; no major incidents.
daily closures maintained no mass-casualty incidents no major political exposure
🚨 Minor Incident $5.1M/yr
20.0% probability / year +$300K vs baseline
One or a few small-scale incidents (several bodies or vehicle destructions) requiring additional forensic processing, increased police overtime, and modest settlements/cover-up costs.
1–5 fatalities recovered increased police overtime moderate settlements/forensics surge
🚨 Major Breach $13.8M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$9.0M vs baseline
Large-scale event with mass casualties, public exposure risk, emergency large-scale operations, accelerated political payments or partial bypass funding, and major legal/PR response.
mass-casualty event or multiple simultaneous incidents media/government exposure requirement for emergency large-scale response or expedited infrastructure funding
👥 Personnel 19 total
Role Count Notes
Containment Field Team (team leader / containment techs / medic) 6 [#3] 4–6 FTE equivalents for daily sweeps and recovery operations; includes medic/forensic tech duties.
Research Scientist / Specialists 5 [#17, #26] Scientific staff for anomaly analysis, experiments, and R&D; includes senior specialist roles.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 3 [#13] Rapid-response and on-call security personnel for active-window response and deterrence.
UAV Pilot / Operator 1 [#12] 1 FTE UAV operator for daily overflights and imagery collection.
Site Technician / Engineer / Maintenance 2 [#4, #11, #18] Technicians for vehicle/sensor maintenance, infrastructure upkeep, and archive/IT support.
Medical Officer / Forensic Technician 1 [#5, #16] Specialist for autopsy coordination, evidence handling, and mortuary logistics.
Administrative Staff / Legal Liaison / PR 1 [#7, #21] Administrative liaison for cover-story management, liaison with retained counsel/PR and recordkeeping.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges, enabling a mid-confidence estimate. Large uncertainties remain around incident frequency, scale (number of bodies), and one-time strategic choices (full bypass funding vs. road purchase vs. permanent fencing), so totals can vary by orders of magnitude.
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