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SCP-8340 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-8340
Expected annual
$16.3M
One-time setup
$33.4M
Annual recurring
$12.7M
Personnel
25
Baseline annual operating cost ~ $12.65M/year driven primarily by amnestic procurement and staff wages; one-time capital (labs, dispensers, stockpile, legal reserves) totals ~ $33.4M, with optional contingency buildouts (on-site production, behavioral R&D) dominating one-time spend.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $33.4M
Legal Liability Reserve $10.0M
[#23] Large one-time legal/liability reserve associated with behavioral programs (documented >$10M).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $7.0M
[#8, #18] On-site production lab capital contingency ($6,000k) and specialized research equipment ($1,000k).
Equipment $5.2M
[#3, #6, #12, #14, #15] Multi-use canisters installed ($1,000k), inventory software/hardware ($150k), emergency/medevac equipment ($175k), sensors/CCTV ($600k), automated dispenser retrofit ($3,250k).
Behavioral Modification R&D $5.0M
[#23] One-time capital for ethically fraught behavioural modification R&D (included as a potential escalation).
Contingency Stockpile $2.6M
[#9] 6–12 month buffer procurement at baseline consumption (~$2.63M midpoint).
Emergency Relocation Planning $1.8M
[#25] One-time emergency relocation and staging planning ($500k–$3M; midpoint used).
Facilities $1.5M
[#5, #17, #19] Secure vault build ($275k), HVAC/filtration upgrades ($150k), door replacement/retrofit program ($1,050k).
Legal Retention And Agreements $275K
[#21] One-time legal retainer and agreements ($50k–$500k).
Initial Training $100K
[#11] Initial training opportunity cost and materials (~$100k initial).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $12.7M/yr
Supplies And Consumables $3.5M/yr
[#1, #2] Class‑B Type Gamma‑15 procurement at baseline $150/dose × 23,400 doses ≈ $3,510,000/yr.
Contingency Insurance $2.5M/yr
[#25] Insurance premiums/reserves for catastrophic scenarios ($1M–$10M/yr; selected conservative reserve).
Staff Wages $2.4M/yr
[#4, #12, #13, #18, #20] Loaded wages for canister technicians (~3 FTE, ~$240k), med/rapid-response techs (~4 FTE), additional security (~8 guards), audit/admin staff, and embedded research salaries.
Hr Impacts $1.1M/yr
[#20] Recruitment, retention, hazard pay, lost productivity, and replacement costs (range $200k–$2M; midpoint used).
Research And Monitoring $1.0M/yr
[#18] Ongoing multidisciplinary research program operating budget (lab costs, studies, IRB, non-salary research ops).
Cover Story And Legal $500K/yr
[#21] Recurring legal/compliance/cover-story and interagency liaison costs.
Medical And Mental Health $500K/yr
[#10] Ongoing mental health care, stabilization, long-term counseling and disability support (baseline mid-range).
Disposal And Hazardous Waste $371K/yr
[#16] Disposal of spent cartridges/filters and contractor fees (~$117k–$585k + ~$20k contractor; midpoint used).
Canister Maintenance $275K/yr
[#4] Consumable cartridges, seals, QA testing and routine maintenance (~$150k–$400k; midpoint used).
Internal Audits $150K/yr
[#24] Anti-diversion audits, background checks, and investigations (~$50k–$250k/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $105K/yr
[#5, #14, #17] Vault monitoring & certification ($25k/yr), sensor/CCTV monitoring ($50k/yr), HVAC/energy operations ($30k/yr).
Ethics Oversight $100K/yr
[#22] Oversight board staffing, hotlines, investigations (~$50k–$300k/yr; conservative midpoint).
Logistics And Transport $72K/yr
[#7] Secure transportation baseline (monthly deliveries) ~$72k/yr.
Training And Certification $35K/yr
[#11] Annual refreshers, instructor fees and materials (~$20k–$50k).
Inventory System Hosting $30K/yr
[#6] Hosting, maintenance and audits for inventory management system ($10k–$50k/yr).
Security Drills And Training $25K/yr
[#13] Annual drills and additional training for guards and containment teams (~$25k/yr).
On Site Production Operating $0/yr
[#8] Operating cost for on-site production if activated; set to $0 in baseline (activation modeled in scenarios).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $12.7M/yr
33.0% probability / year
Normal year with regular operations, no major incidents or activation of contingency capital projects.
steady supply availability routine maintenance no major legal or containment incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $13.2M/yr
25.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Localized medical surge or small containment-adjacent incidents that increase medical, overtime and legal costs.
cluster of trauma-induced psychosis cases minor internal investigation overtime and temporary staffing
🚨 Sustained Supply Shortage $20.5M/yr
40.0% probability / year +$7.8M vs baseline
Prolonged reduction in available Gamma-15 requiring emergency measures: higher per-dose costs, emergency logistics, and activation of on-site production contingency.
geopolitical supply disruptions contract failures documented 20% shortfall
🚨 Major Breach $32.7M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$20.0M vs baseline
Containment-adjacent catastrophic incident (mass exposures, large-scale legal/relocation costs) requiring evacuation, indemnities and large insurance draws.
mass incapacitation leading to containment failure public exposure forced evacuation/relocation
👥 Personnel 25 total
Role Count Notes
Maintenance Technician (canister refill & QA) 3 [#4] Baseline 3 FTE technicians to refill and QA 100 stations; wages included in staff_wages.
Medical Technician / Rapid Response 4 [#12] Medevac/rapid-removal team (3–6 FTE); baseline chosen as 4 FTE; wages included in staff_wages.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#13] Additional guards to mitigate risks from catatonic employees; wages included in staff_wages.
Inventory / Audit / Administrative Staff 4 [#6, #24] Staff for inventory management, audits and administrative coordination; wages included in staff_wages.
Research Scientist / Specialist 6 [#18] Multidisciplinary research team (psych, memetics, anomalous physics, QA); salaries captured in staff_wages while program ops are in research_and_monitoring.
📋 Confidence Notes
Many line items are well-quantified (per-dose cost, canister unit costs) allowing a reasonable baseline estimate, but high uncertainty remains around anomalous behavior, legal exposure, and whether optional capital (on-site production, behavioral R&D) will be executed; probabilities are analyst judgments.
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