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SCP-8354 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-8354
Expected annual
$664K
One-time setup
$1.6M
Annual recurring
$654K
Personnel
5
Initial one-time setup and contingencies dominate costs (site acquisition, durable closure, ROV/GPR/mapping and large remediation contingencies) totaling roughly $1.6M one-time; routine annual operations (staff, telemetry, patrols, transport and maintenance) run on the order of $0.65M/yr.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.6M
Dewatering Contingency $500K
[#16] Conservative contingency for dewatering/flood-mitigation (permits, pumps, disposal, remediation) — high uncertainty; large one-time possible expense.
Contingency Reserve $500K
[#27] General contingency reserve for rapid remediation or containment escalation (excavation, shoring, large-scale engineering).
Facilities $349K
[#1, #2, #4, #11] Site acquisition (outright purchase assumed), welded shaft reinforcement, perimeter installation, and one-time access/road/pad improvements; excludes research instruments and contingency reserves which are listed separately.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $212K
[#13, #15, #22] Purchase of rugged ROV and sonar modules, initial GPR/bathymetric mapping campaign, and secure data storage hardware/software licenses.
Equipment $32K
[#7, #9] Remote intrusion/monitoring sensor package and on-site power hardware (generator/battery bank).
Forensic Autopsy Contingency $12K
[#18] Forensic/pathology follow-up budget for additional autopsies and advanced testing.
Biohazard Setup $5K
[#19] One-time hazmat kit, PPE, decontamination setup and disposal planning.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $654K/yr
Staff Wages $365K/yr
[#6, #17] Security personnel (contracted/local ranger, 2 FTE equivalent) and scientific/research staff (geologist, structural/hydrology engineer, ROV pilot/tech; 2–4 FTE equivalents aggregated).
Administrative Overhead $100K/yr
[#28] Administrative and oversight costs (classified briefings, interdepartmental coordination, O5-level reviews); budgeted as recurring overhead.
Logistics And Transport $52K/yr
[#10, #12, #23] Seasonal snow/avalanche mitigation and site access logistics, occasional helicopter charters (1–3 visits), and emergency medevac/contracted mountain rescue.
Cover Story And Legal $42K/yr
[#20, #21] Legal/compliance filings, permits, environmental paperwork and cover-story/liaison payments or consulting contracts to local officials.
Site Lease Easement $30K/yr
[#1] Alternative to purchase: lease/easement cost to maintain exclusive access and legal control of land.
Research And Monitoring $20K/yr
[#14] ROV operations & maintenance, mission planning, spare parts, and related operational costs for mapping and monitoring (technician time and service contracts not counted in salaries).
Facilities Maintenance $18K/yr
[#3, #5, #9, #11] Annual weld/closure inspection & minor repairs, perimeter maintenance/seasonal inspections, generator fuel/maintenance, and access-road/pad maintenance.
Training And Drills $10K/yr
[#24] Annual training for ROV ops, winter/site operations, weld inspection, and incident response drills.
Supplies And Consumables $9K/yr
[#25, #19, #26] Batteries, welding rods, fuel, replacement sensors/camera housings, small hazmat disposals, and low-dollar archival/records upkeep.
Communications Telemetry $4K/yr
[#8] Satellite/cellular uplink subscriptions, SIMs, and telemetry service for remote sensors.
Secure Data Hosting $4K/yr
[#22] Hosting, backups, and maintenance for encrypted servers and mapping data.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $654K/yr
91.0% probability / year
Normal year with scheduled inspections, routine maintenance, telemetry, patrols, and planned ROV operations; no major incidents or containment escalations.
scheduled_inspections routine_ROV_ops no_unexpected_breaches
🚨 Minor Incident $684K/yr
8.0% probability / year +$30K vs baseline
Localized tampering, sensor failure, or a single unplanned field visit requiring extra helicopter support, repairs, and limited legal/forensic actions.
sensor_tampering extra_helicopter_visit minor_repair_or_forensic_test
🚨 Containment Escalation $1.4M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$700K vs baseline
Discovery of actionable western chamber contents or decision to dewater/engineer the interior triggers large-scale remediation, heavy engineering, and environmental compliance costs.
decision_to_dewater structural_shoring_or_excavation major_environmental_remediation
👥 Personnel 5 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / Contracted Ranger 2 [#6] Rotating two-person contractor or local ranger contract to provide site patrols and reporting; salary included in staff_wages.
Research Scientist / Structural Engineer / ROV Pilot 3 [#17] Combined 2–4 FTE-equivalent research/technical staff (geologist, structural/hydrology engineer, ROV pilot/technician) to analyze mapping data and support operations; salaries included in staff_wages.
📋 Confidence Notes
Detailed recurring costs and many routine one-time items are well-specified (medium confidence), but large remediation items (dewatering, full excavation) have wide ranges and high uncertainty which reduces overall confidence.
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