SCP-836 — SCP-836 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-836 Keter ~ medium confidence

SCP-836

Expected annual

$15.0M

One-time setup

$12.4M

Annual recurring

$11.1M

Personnel

Initial capital outlay is roughly $12.44M for a single-site containment and lab setup; recurring baseline operations are ~ $11.07M/yr. Major cost drivers are staff wages, ongoing research/monitoring, outbreak response reserves, and large one-off policy/mitigation programs if enacted.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $12.4M

Facilities $6.0M

[#1] Purpose-built isolated containment vault, independent utilities and seismic isolation.

Initial Research And Lab Setup $4.1M

[#20, #21, #6, #28] Research program startup, laboratory instrumentation (SEM/µCT/etc.), sterilization kilns for lab use, and data/GIS setup.

Mobile Thermal Purchase $1.0M

[#7] Purchase of a mobile large-volume thermal treatment system / industrial pyrolyzer (option to purchase rather than rent).

Legal Program Initial $500K

[#25] Initial legal and governmental liaison program setup and outreach.

Casings Initial $250K

[#2] Two-layer CFRP casings with glass inserts initial procurement (20 casings).

Decon Infrastructure $200K

[#9] Airlocks, showers, waste holding, HEPA/acid scrubbers installed.

Dehumidifier Install $100K

[#4] Low-humidity environmental control installed (dessicant dehumidifiers, dry-gas purge).

Generator Install $100K

[#5] Redundant power, UPS and on-site generator/fuel-storage installation (capital).

Cctv Install $60K

[#11] CCTV, guarded perimeter hardware, tamper-proof recorders, hardened comms installation.

Sensor Array Install $50K

[#10] Continuous environmental monitoring and sensor array initial installation (RH, particulate, strain).

Ppe Stockpile $50K

[#23] Initial PPE and hazmat stockpile.

Chemical Neutralization Setup $30K

[#8] Warm nitric acid capability: heated baths, fume hoods, storage cabinets, neutralizers.

Equipment $0

[]

Sensor Deployment Initial City $0

[#18] Sensor deployment in at-risk buildings (city-scale deployment left as conditional/policy; costed in scenarios).

Policy Mitigation Initial $0

[#17] Long-term city/building mitigation program (policy design/implementation left conditional; major capital costs handled in scenarios).

Urban Replacement Program Initial $0

[#30] Large-scale urban replacement/renewal program (policy-scale; enacted only under a mitigation scenario).

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $11.1M/yr

Insurance And Compensation Reserve $5.0M/yr

[#26] Insurance, contingency and public compensation fund provisioning (size depends on operational area).

Staff Wages $2.5M/yr

[#12, #13] Scientists, technicians, security roster and support staff payroll.

Research And Monitoring $1.2M/yr

[#20, #21, #28] Ongoing research program funding, instrumentation service contracts, data analysis and GIS subscriptions.

Sensor Deployment Maintenance $500K/yr

[#18] Maintenance and node-service for deployed at-risk-building sensor network (if deployed at scale).

Outbreak Response Retainer $300K/yr

[#14] Retainers and standby contracts for demolition contractors, heavy equipment and rapid mobilization crews.

Cover Story And Legal $250K/yr

[#24, #25] Ongoing media/cover-story maintenance and legal/governmental liaison retainer costs.

Area Monitoring Reserve $250K/yr

[#16] Reserve budgeting for post-outbreak 14-month area monitoring (per-outbreak cost provisioning).

Logistics And Transport $200K/yr

[#19] Standing secure transport program, armored couriers and route security (annual program costs).

Evacuation Fund Annual Provision $200K/yr

[#15] Annual provisioning for evacuation/sheltering costs (per-event provisioning; major events cost more and are scenario-driven).

Training And Drills $150K/yr

[#27] Regular multi-agency exercises, PPE drills and demolition/HVAC interlock drills.

Facilities Maintenance $120K/yr

[#4, #5, #9, #10, #11] Energy and maintenance for dehumidification, generator fuel/maintenance, decon filter replacement, sensor upkeep, CCTV/system maintenance.

Hazardous Waste Contract $100K/yr

[#22] Hazardous waste handling and disposal contracts (annual).

Supplies And Consumables $70K/yr

[#8, #21, #23] Chemical neutralization consumables, laboratory consumables, PPE replenishment.

Replacement Cfrp Panels $60K/yr

[#3] Annual replacement stock and fabrication runs for CFRP panels and glass inserts (wear-and-tear).

Mobile Thermal Rental Reserve $50K/yr

[#7] Annual budget for rented mobile thermal treatment per-event access and logistics.

Containment Auditing $50K/yr

[#29] Containment documentation, auditing and compliance program (annual audits and reporting).

Sterilization Operational Reserve $20K/yr

[#6] Operational costs for sterilization runs (gas/electric/staffing for routine sterilizations).

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $11.1M/yr

80.0% probability / year

Normal year with routine operations, maintenance, research and readiness reserves; no outbreak or policy-scale mitigation enacted.

no_incident routine_operations

🚨 Minor Incident $12.6M/yr

15.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline

Localized inner-casing breach or small outbreak requiring room-level thermal treatment, limited evacuation, targeted monitoring and cover-up.

inner_casing_breach localized_proliferation minor_evacuations

🚨 Major Breach $61.1M/yr

3.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline

Widespread proliferation into utilities or multiple structures requiring large-scale evacuations, long-area monitoring, demolition and major remediation.

widespread_proliferation contact_with_water_networks major_structural_failures

🚨 Policy Mitigation Enacted $121.6M/yr

2.0% probability / year +$110.5M vs baseline

Government/authority adopts large-scale mitigation: city-building retrofits, sensor roll-out and replacement of aging structures.

policy_decision large_scale_mitigation building_code_changes

👥 Personnel 35 total

Role	Count	Notes
Research Scientist	3	[#12] Materials science/chemistry/microbiology scientists to run experiments and analysis.
Laboratory Technician	6	[#12] Full-time technicians for sampling, maintenance, sterilization and instrument prep.
Security Officer / MTF Agent	20	[#13] 24/7 security roster with hazmat/CBRNE training and rapid-response capability.
Site Director / Executive Staff	1	[#12, #13] Program/operations lead overseeing containment.
Medical Officer	1	[#12, #13] On-call medical support for exposure incidents and monitoring.
Engineer / Maintenance	2	[#4, #5, #9] Engineers for HVAC/dehumidification, generators and decontamination systems.
Administrative Staff	2	[#24, #25] Admin and liaison staff for legal/government relations and documentation.

📋 Confidence Notes

Estimates aggregate wide published ranges from analyst notes; baseline operational costs (staffing, research, maintenance) are relatively well-bounded, but outbreak frequency, scale, and potential policy actions are highly uncertain—hence medium confidence.

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