SCP-8432 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-8432
Expected annual
$134K
One-time setup
$954K
Annual recurring
$120K
Personnel
2
One-time setup and contingency reserves are the main upfront drivers (~$954,000), driven by building purchase/remediation and an escalatory demolition/relocation reserve; baseline recurring operations for a minimal monitored program are estimated at ~$120,100/yr (security, inspections, occasional research visits, IT/storage, legal/cover).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $954K
Escalatory Demolition Or Relocation $500K
[#27] Contingent high-cost option for controlled demolition, relocation, or full-scale hermetic containment if escalation is required.
Facilities $284K
[#1, #4, #5, #8] Includes building purchase/control, initial asbestos/contaminant remediation, structural stabilization/shoring around the staircase, and construction of two small monitoring stations/platforms.
Equipment $81K
[#6, #9, #10, #11, #12, #17, #22, #23, #29] One-time purchase of perimeter hardware (fences/locks/signage), CCTV/sensors, local NVR/data hardware, communications installation, monitoring consoles/computers, initial PPE kit, physical archival hardware, initial IT security hardware, and initial environmental monitors.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $26K
[#15] Non-destructive survey and initial lab analyses (GPR/LiDAR/3D scanning and preliminary metallography/microscopy) required to document the anomaly and perform initial materials analysis.
Contingency Fund $25K
[#24] Seed contingency for unexpected incidents, rapid remediation, local payoffs or emergency relocation of equipment/staff.
Mobilization And Shipping $13K
[#28] Mobilization of local contractors and shipping of bulk gear (scaffolding, shoring, heavy tools) for an initial campaign.
Front Company Setup $12K
[#2] Local holding/front company registration and initial legal/accounting setup to provide cover and manage property records.
Training Initial $6K
[#30] Initial SOP development, training and drills for containment, experiment procedure, and emergency extraction.
Sampling Campaign $4K
[#16] Representative cost for a single small-sample removal campaign (tools, conservation, sealed transport, permits) if conducted as a one-off.
Translation Initial $3K
[#21] Initial translation and local liaison setup (signage translation, initial local-language documentation, liaison introductions).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $120K/yr
Staff Wages $35K/yr
[#7, #13] Baseline staffing: local part-time contract security guard and local site manager/administrator; full-time research salaries would raise this substantially (see research_scale_up scenario / #13).
Research And Monitoring $32K/yr
[#10, #12, #13, #15, #16, #18, #29] Annual costs including data storage/bandwidth, software maintenance, per-visit research/technician costs (assumed a few visits/year), periodic lab follow-up analyses, sample handling if repeated, emergency/medical standby retainer for experiments, and recurring environmental monitoring.
Site Lease $15K/yr
[#1] Alternative to purchase: long-term lease estimate to legally control access (baseline includes lease costs if purchase not chosen).
Cover Story And Legal $12K/yr
[#2, #19, #21, #25] Annual legal/accounting retainer for the front company, third-party liability/property insurance, liaison/translation retainer, and occasional public-relations/cover-story maintenance.
Facilities Maintenance $11K/yr
[#3, #6, #20] Annual municipal fees/property-related charges, perimeter upkeep (signs/locks), and regular inspection/maintenance visits to address vandalism, water ingress, and small repairs.
Logistics And Transport $6K/yr
[#14] Travel and accommodation budget for visiting teams (flights, hotels, local transport) on a limited-schedule baseline.
It Security And Opsec $3K/yr
[#23] Recurring IT security, encrypted communications, and periodic OPSEC audits to prevent leaks.
Training And Drills $2K/yr
[#30] Annual refresher training, SOP updates, and emergency drills.
Communications And Networking $2K/yr
[#11] Monthly Internet/telecom subscriptions and cellular backup/comm redundancy costs.
Supplies And Consumables $2K/yr
[#17] PPE restock, disposable supplies, batteries, tape, evidence bags and other consumables.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $120K/yr
92.0% probability / year
Minimal monitored program year with lease, part-time security, occasional research visits, regular inspections, and routine maintenance.
no incidents occasional scheduled research visits routine maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $135K/yr
5.0% probability / year +$15K vs baseline
A trespass, vandalism, small structural damage, or medical/ambulance deployment during a test requiring emergency repairs and legal costs.
unauthorized entry small structural repair emergency medical deployment
🚨 Major Escalation Demolition $620K/yr
1.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Decision or necessity to demolish, relocate, or build full-scale hermetic containment for the staircase (escalatory option).
structural collapse risk public exposure forcing action reclassification requiring physical removal
🚨 Research Scale Up $520K/yr
2.0% probability / year +$400K vs baseline
Transition from observation to a sustained reverse-engineering research program with resident staff and labs.
funding prioritized for reverse-engineering reclassification to Explained prompting development successful early results prompting scale-up
👥 Personnel 2 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 1 [#7] Local contract security guard (part-time baseline) to prevent unauthorized access and enforce cordons.
Site Manager / Administrative Staff 1 [#2, #21] Local administrator/front-company manager to handle permits, liaison with municipal authorities and day-to-day site oversight.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based on analyst ranges and typical procurement/contracting in Narva; many items have wide ranges (purchase vs lease, level of staffing, or whether large-scale research/demolition is pursued), so medium confidence is appropriate.
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